On March 10, Shell released the unaudited fourth quarter and annual financial results of 202 1 and held a telephone exchange meeting. At the beginning of his speech, Peng Yongdong, Chairman and CEO of Shell, profoundly expressed the voice of Shell people in the past year, which I believe is also the voice of all real estate practitioners.
For the whole intermediary industry, 202 1 is indeed an extremely difficult year; For the shell that lost its soul in the past year, the departure of Zuo Hui, the drastic adjustment of the real estate market and the brand-new proposition of the Internet economy have also brought many new challenges to the company.
The financial report shows that the annual turnover (GTV) of shell 202/kloc-0 is 3.85 trillion yuan, up10.1%year-on-year; Operating income was 80.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65,438+04.6%; The adjusted net profit was 2.294 billion yuan.
In such a turbulent market environment, it is not easy for shells to keep growing. As can be seen from the financial report, shells are also actively looking for new growth drivers. Long-term rental and home improvement are the new "hands-on" of shells.
Sadness and joy in the falling market
After the death of the founder, the change of management, the cold winter of the real estate industry and the short selling of muddy water institutions, Shell had a challenging year on 20021.
The financial report shows that shell 202 1 gross profit reached 158 billion yuan, down 6.2% from 2020 169 billion yuan; The gross profit margin is 19.6%, which is 4.3 percentage points lower than 23.9% in 2020.
In addition to the decline in gross profit, the operating profit of shells and other data all declined year-on-year and turned from positive to negative, showing no small operating pressure.
The financial report shows that in 20021year, Shell's operating loss was 654,380.4 billion yuan, which was "from profit to loss" compared with the operating profit of 2.8 billion yuan in 2020. The operating profit margin is-1.7%, which is "from positive to negative" compared with 4% in 2020; The net loss was 525 million yuan, which was the same as the net income of 2.778 billion yuan in 2020.
Since the third quarter of last year, the real estate market has been completely frozen, and the market situation is also intuitively reflected in Shell's financial data.
In the fourth quarter of 200210, Shell achieved an operating income of17.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.9 billion yuan compared with 22.7 billion yuan in the same period in 2020.
However, Shell said that the decline in operating income was mainly due to the overall decline of GTV, because the market has been hovering at a low level. The financial report shows that in the fourth quarter of 20021,the overall GTV of shells decreased by 34.6% to 732.4 billion yuan, compared with1.2 trillion yuan in the same period of 2020.
In addition, compared with the operating profit of 65.438+0.267 billion yuan in the same period in 2020, the shell also achieved a turnover loss of 202.65438+0.84 billion yuan in the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter, the operating profit margin also turned from positive to negative, from 5.6% in the same period in 2020 to -6.7%.
Moreover, compared with the net profit of 65.438+0.96 billion yuan in the same period in 2020, Shell's net loss in the fourth quarter of 2026.5438+0 was 933 million yuan.
The financial report shows that in the fourth quarter of 200212020, Shell's adjusted operating loss was 398 million yuan, and its operating profit in the same period in 2020 was 2.23 billion yuan. The adjusted operating profit margin is -2.2%, compared with 9.8% in the same period in 2020.
On the whole, the market recovery in the fourth quarter is still in the initial stage and relatively differentiated, and the overall trading volume of the market is also at a low level. But overall, Shell's performance in the fourth quarter was better than the market had expected, and the new house business fluctuated little during the cooling period of the property market, showing some resilience.
Facing the challenge of the market environment, Shell has also made a series of management action optimization in time. In the fourth quarter of 2002/kloc-0, the company's GTV was 732.4 billion yuan, and its operating income was 178 billion yuan, which exceeded the company's previous income guidance and market consensus expectations. In the fourth quarter of 200212002, Haibei's adjusted net profit was 4 19 10000 yuan, which was far better than the loss of 5 100000 yuan expected by Bloomberg.
In addition, in the fourth quarter of 20021,the operating cost of shells decreased from 172 billion yuan in the same period in 2020 to 149 billion yuan. Among them, the commission of non-chain brokers and other sales channels was 7.8 billion yuan, and the internal commission and salary expenses were 5.4 billion yuan.
Second-hand houses exceed expectations, and it will take time for new houses to pick up.
Affected by the property market environment, the transaction scale of new and second-hand houses in Shell 202 1 fourth quarter declined to varying degrees, especially the second-hand house transactions.
According to RealData data, in the fourth quarter of 20021,the national second-hand market GTV decreased by 43% year-on-year. According to the financial report, the GTV of shell stock housing transactions decreased by 39% year-on-year to 354.6 billion yuan, of which the second-hand housing transactions decreased by 4 1% year-on-year.
It is worth noting that even if the volume of stock housing business declines, the decline rate of shells is still better than the average decline level of 45% in the second-hand housing market in core first-and second-tier cities, exceeding market expectations. Moreover, from the actual situation, the second-hand transaction volume of some core cities has begun to bottom out.
However, in the new housing market, RealData data shows that in the fourth quarter of 20021,the national new housing market decreased by 20% year-on-year, while the GTV of the new housing on the shell platform decreased by 24% year-on-year to 356.8 billion yuan, slightly exceeding the market decline.
The reason, Shell also said, is mainly affected by the liquidity crisis in the real estate industry. "In the case of uncertain liquidity risk of developers, the company actively contracted its business to a certain extent, thus ensuring the long-term security of its business. In the short term, the recovery of the new housing market cycle will take more time, especially in the fourth quarter, and the risks of new housing will continue to accumulate. "
The financial report shows that in the fourth quarter of 20021,the operating income of shell stock housing trading service was 6 billion yuan, compared with 9.2 billion yuan in the same period of 2020; The operating income of new house transaction service is11300 million yuan, and it will be 129 million yuan in the same period in 2020. In addition, Shell recorded a new house income of 46.5 billion yuan in 20021year, and the new house accounts receivable paid 51700 million yuan.
Since the fourth quarter of last year, with the support of policies, the market has shown signs of bottoming out, but it still takes more time for the transaction to resume, and the excess capacity of the industry has also been cleared on a large scale. As the core asset of the intermediary platform, the number of offline stores and brokers determines whether the shell can successfully survive the industry downturn.
According to the financial report, as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2002110,000, the number of shell-connected stores exceeded 5 1 10,000, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year and a decrease of 5.4% quarter-on-quarter. The number of active stores exceeded 45,000, up 4.4% year-on-year and down 8.3% quarter-on-quarter.
Shell said that the decrease in the number of stores was mainly due to the merger of some stores to increase competitiveness. At the same time, the number of new stores has decreased, and the number of platform networking brokers has also decreased by 7.8% year-on-year to 455,000; The number of active brokers decreased by 8.7% year-on-year to more than 406,000.
According to the research of the Blank Institute, by the end of 20021,the proportion of the decrease in the number of securities firms in China is conservatively estimated at 30%-40%. Compared with the shrinking production capacity of the industry, shells still show better broker retention ability.
Peng Yongdong's "Three Resolutions"
At the end of the performance exchange meeting, Peng Yongdong said that he had three very "definite" judgments on the prospect of the real estate market in 2022.
"First, we believe that policy rectification is certain; Secondly, we believe that consumers have great demand for a better life. Third, we believe that the market return center is certain. "
Supported by these uncertainties, Peng Yongdong firmly believes that market confidence will gradually recover after bottoming out in the first quarter, and the decline in trading volume will gradually narrow from the second quarter, and it is expected to resume year-on-year growth in the second half.
However, he also said that in 2022, the total transaction volume of second-hand houses and new houses judged by Shell still decreased by 6%~ 14% year-on-year. Among them, the number of second-hand houses decreased by 10%~ 15%, and the number of new houses decreased by 5%~ 10%.
In addition, the exchange meeting also released RealData's expectation of the real estate market in 2022 and the performance trend of the shell platform business development. RealData predicts that the market will gradually recover in 2022, showing a trend of "low before and high after".
Since the beginning of this year, favorable policies in the real estate market have appeared frequently. RealData predicts that monetary policy will remain neutral and loose this year, and there will be one RRR cut and two interest rate cuts. At the same time, this year's credit environment and administrative control measures will also be steadily restored under the conditions of benefiting the real estate market and keeping houses from speculation.
In terms of credit, the mortgage interest rate will further decrease in 2022, the pace of credit supply will match the market demand and be released steadily, the total amount of mortgage supply will increase compared with 202 1, and the credit investment will obviously support the release of just-needed and improved demand and promote housing consumption.
From the perspective of administrative mediation, it is expected that in 2022, more local governments will relax the administrative control on the demand side, such as relaxing the first set of accreditation standards and relaxing the restrictions on purchases and sales. "The people's demand for a better life is still huge, but the release of various needs still needs a process."
With the development of the real estate industry turning to long-term sustainable development, Shell made timely adjustments and effectively turned difficulties into opportunities through operational optimization and strategic upgrading. It is understood that at the end of last year, Shell released a strategic upgrade of "one body and two wings". "Integration" is the service track of second-hand housing and new housing transactions, and "two wings" are the large-scale residential business group and the Pratt & Whitney residential business group with complete facilities respectively.
In fact, in addition to real estate transaction services, Shell is trying to open up new growth points in furniture decoration services and long-term rental apartments.
In July, 200212002, Shell acquired Zhuang Jie, the holy capital, for 8 billion yuan. The latter's main business is the regular pattern of home improvement services. At present, its business has covered 3 1 city in China. In the urban pilot in the fourth quarter of last year, Shell's second-hand house and new house trading service track has contributed about 30% of the tourists to the local home improvement business.
In addition, at the end of 20021,Shell also established the "Shell Gathering Business Group", and subsequently, Shell Renting came into being. In February this year, Shell Renting signed a cooperation agreement with Wan Le Apartment to jointly invest in the first youth apartment project in Xuhui District. It is reported that the project covers an area of nearly 40,000 square meters with a total turnover of 2,978 sets. In addition to cooperating with * * * to build apartments, Shell Renting also tries to decentralize the apartment business in some cities and do light custody.
Xu Tao, executive director and chief financial officer of Shell, said: "One body and two wings is the strategic framework for the company's future development. We insist on vertical cultivation of industrial internet and building infrastructure. The valuable experience accumulated in the field of real estate transactions and services has given us strong confidence and a solid foundation to upgrade the huge and expanding industrial structure in the field of' Good Life'. "
Based on this ambition, it is understood that in 2022, Shell also set three goals for its "integration" business:
First, promote the specialization and professionalization of brokers and other service providers; Second, under the premise of quality, we should pay more attention to the operational efficiency of housing transaction groups and enhance the flexibility of organizational nerve endings; Third, in 2022, "integration" began to help "two wings" and build a business model that effectively recommended customers to the second track.
Perhaps just like the initial intention of the real estate industry to return to the "residence" attribute, the second growth curve envisioned by Shell is also the initial intention of the intermediary industry to return to "service".
Now that the property market is picking up soon, will the future of home improvement and long-term rental track belong to shells?