Some people say that there is a bubble in real estate because there is more money and more asset bubbles, while others say that there are problems in China's land supply and current land policy, which leads to an increase in real estate prices. In Han Ge's view, in fact, both sides are right, only part of them are right, so why don't we talk about how the real estate price went up today?
In recent years, I believe that many friends, like Brother Han, have witnessed the rise in house prices, but the wages are still on the knees, and there is even a downward trend, which is becoming more and more unbearable. I believe this is the personal experience of many urbanites. However, why did house prices rise so much? Let's analyze the logic behind the rise in housing prices.
First, is it water release or capital outflow?
I believe that friends who have studied physics or had life experience should know what to do if there is foam when washing dishes or things. The best way is to drain water. As soon as the water bubbles, it gets up and can be washed. In fact, in the financial market, the reason is the same. Why are you blowing big bubbles? In fact, from a logical point of view, only water is money, not money.
But everyone saw the problem of releasing water. Does anyone know why the water should be released? On the one hand, in the process of economic development in China, a large number of people have migrated from rural areas to cities, which will inevitably lead to the process of economic urbanization. So these people have a real demand for real estate, because when the process comes, they can't wander around the streets and find a place to live. Real demand is only an important factor in real estate. We can think that, because of population migration and urbanization, there has been a period of hunger and thirst for real estate in China, which is the root of all our discussions.
Let's look at the other hand, how can we buy a house if there is demand? Then you need income. The source of this income is actually very simple, because in 2008, the financial crisis appeared and the economy was sluggish. In order to stimulate the economy, we used obvious Keynesian policies. What is Keynesianism? This is spending money, spending money on a large scale in the form of debt, and promoting economic growth through spending money. However, if all the money is put into the market, the possible result will be soaring prices, especially the depreciation of the RMB. Therefore, in order to prevent housing prices from rising so hard, the best way is to put money into the reservoir of funds, which is real estate. Brother Han said before that the real estate industry has driven more than 0/00 industries such as steel, cement, construction, logistics and services, and promoted the development of real estate. Didn't you say that it indirectly promoted economic recovery? So, money goes into real estate.
And because of their own financial crisis and the sluggish financial market, everyone gave money. Due to the financial depression, there is no other investment channel, so it is better to invest in real estate, so there is the so-called real estate climax after 2008. This climax has brought real estate and economy closer. It can be said that the prosperity of real estate will lead to the rise of the economy, but the decline of real estate means that the economy may collapse. This is why our previous economic work conference did not talk about lowering housing prices, but to maintain the stability of the real estate market.
Last year, I saw many articles talking about Japan and Russia, saying that one guaranteed the exchange rate and the other guaranteed the house price, and said what would happen to us. But from the logic behind it, the dispute between exchange rate and house price is an out-and-out false proposition. It is precisely because of the real estate bubble that everyone is afraid of both the money in the hands of the rich and the international hot money. In order to avoid risks, a large amount of funds fled China, leading to exchange rate problems. So what we are facing now is that the funds are shrinking, and there is not so much water, but the capital outflow leads to the depreciation of the RMB, which eventually leads to the emergence of real estate. Therefore, the stability of 20 17 real estate is probably the most worrying issue.
Second, resource allocation is the deep connotation behind the rise in housing prices.
I believe most of my friends have found a problem. Over the past decade or so, our real estate regulation and control has not been once or twice, but a dozen or even dozens of times. However, there seems to be a curse on real estate. The more control it is, the more ruthless it is. Even if some effects are temporarily stable, it is retaliatory.
So many people blame the problem on the land, saying that there is a conspiracy between developers and interest classes. As for whether there is such a conspiracy, I don't know, but what we know is that many problems cannot be explained by conspiracy theories. The most important issue in economics is the allocation of resources.
Look at this round of real estate price increase, why do everyone know that the price is high, but they all buy it? In the final analysis, it is still uneven distribution of resources. Price increases are mostly concentrated in first-and second-tier central cities, and first-tier cities such as Beishangguangshen and Shenzhen are price leaders. What does a first-tier city mean? First-tier cities mean more employment opportunities, better medical resources, more educational resources, more lucrative opportunities to make money, better infrastructure, a sound legal environment and a stable social order.
Biologically speaking, human beings are also animals. What is the nature of animals? Of course, it is to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages. Man struggles upwards, but water flows downwards. Where resources are intensive, people will naturally concentrate. Then let's go back to the problem of real estate. In fact, the house itself is not expensive, and the cost of reinforced concrete is very low in such a highly developed environment as China. According to Trump, the new president of the United States, the key to real estate is location, location or location. So what is location? In fact, it's not as simple as where you are, because with this position, you have the right to choose a position and a certain allocation of resources, which will affect your future life.
So buying a house has become a biological struggle against the living environment. This struggle is more based on Darwin's theory of evolution and the logic of evolution. Therefore, if the function of the house is only to live, everyone will concentrate on Yunguichuan in the third-and fourth-tier cities instead of going to the north, because in many places in Yunguichuan, the natural environment is not as good as that in Switzerland and Canada.
When buying a house in China, the "residential function" is only a small part of the house function. Most of the money people spend is to buy additional functions of the house. So what are the so-called additional functions? In fact, there are many additional functions. Han Ge, for example, educational resources.
As we all know, China people respect teachers and attach importance to education. As the saying goes, "No matter how hard you are, you will be poor again". The process of economic development itself is the process of concentrating educational resources, which will gradually be concentrated in first-and second-tier central cities. Many parents will buy a house at all costs for their children's better education. And it is not only the educational resources of primary and secondary schools, but also the educational resources of universities and other institutions of higher learning. Many paragraphs on the Internet say that hukou in first-tier cities is equivalent to 50 points in the college entrance examination. Although a bit sensational, it is not rough.
In addition, there are additional resources such as medical care and employment. These resources make the price of the house exceed the price of the living function too much, which is the fundamental reason behind the rise. Our leader said: the house is for living, not for speculation. Then really hit the nail on the head and let the house return to the living function itself, which may be the key to solving the real estate problem.