At present, with the gradual improvement of China's market economy system, bidding for construction projects has been fully implemented throughout the country, and it has gradually embarked on the track of institutionalization, standardization, scientificity and legalization. The market competition of construction projects is becoming increasingly fierce, and its risks are also attracting more and more attention from all walks of life. Risk analysis and management of construction projects to minimize risks has become one of the important prerequisites to ensure the success of construction projects and create maximum benefits.
Characteristics and risk management of construction projects
Characteristics of the construction project The construction project is a complex systematic project with the following characteristics:
There are specific objects, which can be bridges, houses, airports and other physical objects, including construction feasibility reports, design drawings, physical models, building codes and so on.
Be bound by economy and law. Any construction project should complete its objectives and tasks under certain investment funds, quality requirements and working space, so that all parties involved in the project are satisfied, and comply with relevant construction laws and safety regulations during the progress of the project.
It is one-off and irreversible. The preliminary planning, project approval, design planning, construction supervision and putting into use of a construction project are all unitary, and it is difficult to change once it is implemented.
It is complex and systematic. Construction projects need the assistance of designers, supervisors, construction units, owners, project management companies and governments, and the process of communication and coordination among them is very complicated.
There are risks. The whole process of project implementation is full of risks. Risk refers to the uncertain factors in the project system, which have a negative impact on the implementation and operation of the construction project, making it impossible to achieve the predetermined goals. It includes politics, law, market, nature, architecture, design and technical operation.
risk management
Risk management refers to the process of identifying, analyzing, evaluating and taking preventive measures against factors that may lead to project delay, cost increase, quality and safety performance decline or even project failure at all stages of project planning, exploration and design, project construction and completion. It includes:
Risk identification and analysis. It is necessary to determine the types of risks and analyze their causes.
Risk assessment. Evaluate the probability and time of risk occurrence and the degree of damage.
Risk countermeasures. Including risk avoidance strategy (when the risk of a construction project greatly exceeds the bearing capacity of the project, the project should be thrown out or abandoned or the project objectives should be changed), risk mitigation strategy (reducing the probability of risk occurrence and the unfavorable degree of risk, raising the expectation of risk return and mitigating the risk to an acceptable level), risk dispersion and transfer strategy (transferring the risk to some entities outside the project by adding risk units, in order to reduce the overall risk pressure, To achieve the purpose of risk sharing, such as seeking guarantee and insurance, as well as risk retention and fund raising (take the initiative to take risks after comparing costs and benefits, and actively take emergency measures to reduce the adverse effects caused by risks, such as withdrawing reserve funds).
Risk control. It mainly runs through the whole process of project schedule, cost, quality and contract control, including risk monitoring and early warning.
Identification of risk factors in engineering project construction
Identification of risk factors in construction projects refers to the classification and refinement of factors that may generate risks in construction projects. The risks of general engineering projects can be divided into five categories and subdivided into several factors.
Social and environmental risks. Refers to the risks brought by international and domestic political, economic and technological fluctuations (such as war, civil strife, regime change, policy changes, foreign exchange rate fluctuations, etc.). ) or natural disasters (such as earthquakes, floods, etc. ) to the construction of engineering projects. This kind of risk belongs to the natural risk in the big environment, which is generally fatal and almost irreversible.
Economic risk. Refers to the risks brought by changes in economic factors (such as prices, taxes, wages, etc.). ) is related to the construction of engineering projects.
Technical risk. It refers to the risks brought to the construction of engineering projects due to the changes of technical factors related to the construction of engineering projects (such as the quality level of engineering design, the functional indicators of equipment, the compilation level of various specification documents, etc.). ).
Public relations risk. Refers to the risks brought to the project construction due to the changes of various internal relations related to the project construction (such as the personnel of all levels, types and departments of the project construction unit) and external relations (such as the competent department of the project, subcontractors, the same industry, etc.). ).
Manage risks. It refers to the risk brought by the change of management function and management object (such as management organization, leadership quality and management plan) of engineering project construction.
The classification of the above risks is not unique, and the exact factors should be determined according to the actual situation of specific projects.
Characteristics of construction project risks under market economy conditions, there are many uncertain factors. Many construction projects (such as the Three Gorges Project) are large in scale, huge in investment and far-reaching, so there are various risks and complicated relationships. Its risks have the following characteristics.
Objectivity and universality of risk. As a kind of loss, uncertain risk is independent of people's will and transcends people's subjective consciousness. In the whole life cycle of a project, risks are everywhere.
The contingency of a specific risk and the inevitability of a large number of risks. The occurrence of any particular risk is the result of the interaction of many risk factors and other factors, which is a random phenomenon. The occurrence of individual risk accidents is accidental and disorderly, but through the observation and statistical analysis of a large number of risk accident data, it can be found that it presents obvious movement law, and the probability and loss degree of risks can be calculated by modern risk analysis methods such as probability statistics.
Variability of risk. This means that in the whole life cycle of the project, some risks will be controlled, some risks will occur and be dealt with, and new risks may appear in all stages of the project, especially in large-scale projects. Because of many risk factors, the variability of risks is more obvious.
The diversity and multi-level of risks. Large-scale projects are long in cycle, large in scale, wide in scope, and numerous in risk factors and various in types, which leads to various risks in the whole life cycle. The internal relationship between a large number of risk factors is complex, and the cross-influence of various risk factors and external factors makes risks present multi-levels.
Risk control of construction projects. 1 There are always risks in construction projects, and these risks must be reasonably distributed among project participants (including investors, owners, project managers, contractors, suppliers, etc.). ). Only when each participant has a certain risk responsibility can he be active and creative in project management and control. Only reasonable risk allocation can arouse the enthusiasm of all parties and realize the high efficiency of the project. The reasonable allocation of risks should follow the following principles:
From the perspective of the overall benefit of the project, give full play to the enthusiasm of all parties. Because if the project participant does not take any risks, he will have no responsibility, and of course he will have no enthusiasm for control, so it is impossible to do a good job. If we simply adopt the contract of completing the project quantity plus remuneration, the contractor will do everything possible to increase the project quantity in order to obtain the potential of the project, and ultimately damage the overall benefit. If the contractor is adopted, he will bear all risks. In order to prevent risks, the contractor will inevitably raise the asking price and increase the budget, and the owner will make decisions blindly because he does not take risks, which will eventually damage the overall benefit. Therefore, only by letting all parties bear the corresponding risk responsibilities and strengthening the sense of responsibility and enthusiasm of all parties through the decomposition of risks can we plan and control better and realize the double profit.
Fair and reasonable, with a balance of responsibilities and rights. First of all, the responsibility and right of risk should be balanced: those who have the responsibility to take risks should also be given the power to control and deal with risks. If they already have certain rights, they should also bear corresponding risks; Second, risks and opportunities should be as equal as possible: those who take risks should enjoy the benefits of risk control and opportunity benefits at the same time, and only in this way can participants take risks bravely; Iii. Possibility and rationality of taking risks: the risk taker should have the time, plan, control conditions and possibility to take measures, and the time and information to take measures to control risks quickly. Only in this way can participants take risks rationally.
It conforms to the engineering practice and the usual treatment methods. It is fair and reasonable to adopt the FIDIC contract terms of international practice and clearly stipulate the risk responsibility between the contractor and the owner.
The common risk countermeasure is to avoid high-risk projects and choose low-risk or medium-risk projects after weighing the pros and cons. We should be vigilant in project decision-making, give up those projects that may definitely lead to losses, and try our best to avoid some projects whose risks exceed our ability to bear and which are not well grasped. This is a relatively conservative risk countermeasure.
Take advanced technical measures and perfect organizational measures to reduce the possibility and possible impact of risks. For example, choose a flexible and risk-resistant technical scheme, conduct pre-technical simulation tests, and take reliable protection and safety measures. Select effective technical and management personnel for the managed projects, adopt effective management organization forms, and implement strict control in the implementation process, strengthen planning work, and pay close attention to stage control and intermediate decision-making.
Buy insurance or ask the other party to guarantee the transfer of risk. For some inevitable risks, it can be solved by buying insurance; If the credit risk may be caused by the partner, the other party may be required to issue a guarantee, such as a bid guarantee issued by the bank, a guarantee issued by the government of the joint venture project, a performance guarantee, an advance payment guarantee, etc.
Put forward a reasonable risk margin. This is to prepare for the risk from the financial point of view, and add unforeseen risk fees to the quotation to offset or reduce the losses when the risk occurs.
Take the form of cooperation and take risks. Because most projects are co-operated by multiple enterprises or departments, there is bound to be risk sharing, but we must consider finding reliable partners with strong anti-risk ability and good reputation, as well as a reasonable and clear scheme to decompose risks, which must be clearly defined through contracts.
Adopt the strategy of secondary operation. In other words, while actively cooperating with every requirement and change put forward by the owner in the project construction process, the owner should make a written confirmation to control the occurrence of risks.
Conduct comprehensive risk control, pre-control and early warning for strong risks in project implementation. In the process of project implementation, we should constantly collect and analyze all kinds of information and trends, and capture the precursor signals of risks, so as to better prepare and take effective risk countermeasures to counter possible risks.
At the risk occurrence stage, taking timely measures to control the impact of risks is an effective way to reduce losses and prevent risks.
In the risk state, it is still necessary to ensure the smooth implementation of the project, such as quickly resuming production, ensuring the completion of the expected goals as planned, and preventing project interruption and cost overruns. Only in this way can we have a good chance to control the risks that have occurred and may occur, and strive for risk compensation, such as filing claims with insurance units and risk owners, so as to minimize the loss of risks.
The detailed information of "Risk Analysis and Control of Construction Project" can be found in the link of Zhong Da Consulting and Design, and all relevant construction information you want is available.
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