2. China steel industry implemented import safeguard measures for the first time.
Since March 2002, with the United States and the European Union successively announcing safeguard measures for imported steel products, a large number of steel products have flooded into China. In 2002 1 quarter, China's steel imports increased by 17.5% compared with the same period of last year and by 12.9% compared with the fourth quarter of 2006. Among them, March surged by 30.86% compared with the same period of last year. Due to the large increase in imported products, steel prices have fallen. In 2002, the sales price decreased by 7.78% compared with the same period of 200 1, and the domestic sales price of ordinary thin plates decreased by 16.77% compared with the same period of last year, which made the profits of many large and medium-sized steel enterprises decrease by as much as 43.36%. Therefore, China Iron and Steel Industry Association, Baosteel, Angang, WISCO, Shougang and Hangang jointly submitted an application for investigation of steel product safeguard measures to MOFTEC. On May 2, 20021day, MOFTEC decided to take temporary safeguard measures for nine categories of products with 48 tariff lines imported from China for a period of 180 days. That is to say, nine kinds of steel products are subject to tariff quotas, with the average export volume in the past three years as the quota base, the current import tariff rate is still applicable to the imported products within the tariff quotas, and 7-26% tariffs are levied on the additional tariffs and the over-quota imports in China. The countries and regions involved in this survey of steel products safeguard measures mainly include Japan, South Korea, Russian Federation and Taiwan Province Province of China. This is the first case of China's import safeguard measures, and it is also the first time for China to use the relevant provisions of the World Trade Organization to solve trade disputes and take the initiative to attack.
The final safeguard measures for some imported steel products will be officially implemented on the 20th of this month.
China's temporary safeguard measures expired on June 24, 2002, and the formal safeguard measures will be officially launched soon. The safeguard measures only implement import tariff quotas for five kinds of steel products: hot-rolled ordinary sheet, cold-rolled ordinary sheet, color-coated sheet, non-oriented silicon steel and stainless steel cold-rolled sheet, and special tariffs will be imposed on steel products that exceed the total tariff quotas. Moreover, the formal safeguard measures adopt the national quota method for hot-rolled ordinary thin plates, cold-rolled ordinary thin plates and stainless steel cold-rolled thin plates, and adopt the global quotas method for color-coated plates and non-oriented silicon steel, and do not implement tariff quotas for developing countries whose imports are less than 3%. The implementation period of formal safeguard measures is from October 20th, 2002/KLOC-0 to May 23rd, 2005. During the two and a half years of the final safeguard measures, the special tariff rate was gradually reduced. However, by comparing the special tariff rates of the first stage of temporary safeguard measures and final safeguard measures, we can see that the special tariff rates of color-coated plates and non-oriented silicon steel have increased, while the special tariff rates of hot-rolled ordinary plates and cold-rolled ordinary plates have decreased, and stainless steel is cold-rolled.
Table 1: Comparison of phased special tariff rates and temporary safeguard measures for some steel products
diversification
Temporary safeguard measures and final safeguard measures
02.5.24- 1 1. 19 02. 1 1.20-03.5.23 03.5.24-04.5.23 04.5.24-05.5.23
1. Hot rolled common steel plate 26% 10.30% 9.50% 8.70%
2. Cold rolled ordinary sheet (strip) 26% 22.40% 20.60% 19.00%
3. Color coated board18% 23.20% 21.30%19.00%
4. Non-oriented silicon steel 9% 20.20%18.60%17.10%
5. Cold rolled stainless steel plate18%18.10%16.70%15.30%.
Today, with the increasing protection of international steel trade, China government has implemented safeguard measures for some steel products. On the one hand, it is to prevent and avoid serious damage or threat of damage caused by excessive import to China's steel industry; On the other hand, it will win valuable time for the industrial structure adjustment and future development of China's steel industry. In the final analysis, it is an important measure to improve the market competitiveness of China's steel industry and actively apply WTO rules in response to changes in the external environment after China's entry into WTO.
Second, China's iron and steel industry after China's entry into WTO
1. Domestic iron and steel enterprises have stepped up technological transformation and accelerated the pace of structural adjustment.
In order to meet the challenge of joining WTO, domestic iron and steel enterprises have intensified their technical transformation and accelerated the pace of structural adjustment. According to statistics, in recent years, domestic steel enterprises have invested more than 200 billion yuan in industrial restructuring. Because thin plate is the main contradiction of steel products in Chinese mainland, the production capacity is seriously insufficient. Therefore, during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, many enterprises will increase the production equipment of thin plates, mainly hot-rolled steel plates, cold-rolled steel plates and galvanized steel plates. From the hot rolling production line, at present, domestic steel enterprises such as Baosteel, Angang and Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. have 12 hot rolling steel plate production line with an annual total production capacity of 23 million tons. During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, five steel enterprises, including WISCO, Angang, Baotou Steel, Zhuhai Steel and Handan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., will add 1 hot rolled steel plate production lines. From the perspective of cold rolled steel plate production lines, there are currently seven cold rolled steel plate production lines in seven enterprises with a total annual production capacity of 7.6 million tons. During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, Kungang will build a reversible rolling mill with an annual output of 400,000 tons 1, and transform four cold rolling production lines of four steel companies, including Angang, WISCO, Pangang and Shanghai Yichang Steel Plant, with an annual output of 2.6 million tons. In addition, there are 65,438+00 galvanized steel plate production lines in China with an annual output of 2.2 million tons. During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, Hangang will build a new1300,000-ton galvanized steel plate production line, and transform two galvanized steel plate production lines in WISCO and Pangang, with an annual output of 400,000 tons. In 2005, the total galvanized steel plate production capacity will be expanded to 2.7 million tons. Another batch of coated board production lines will be completed. By then, the production capacity of 28 sets of coated paperboard production lines will reach 3.2 million tons. There are also a number of modern large blast furnaces, converters, large rolling mills, medium and heavy plate mills, plate and tube mills, high-speed wire rod mills, small tandem mills and ultra-high-power electric furnaces, which will greatly improve the technical equipment level of China iron and steel industry.
2. After China's entry into WTO, the steel market is mixed.
-Strong domestic demand and slow export growth. Due to the sustained high-speed growth of China's economy, the export of real estate, automobile industry, shipbuilding industry and mechanical and electrical products has developed strongly, which has brought strong demand for domestic steel production. According to statistics, the national steel consumption in 2002 1-9 was about 1.55 million tons, an increase of 22% over the same period last year. It is estimated that the annual consumption will exceed 200 million tons for the first time. Exports increased slightly. From June to September 2002, the country exported 3.93 million tons of steel, an increase of 9. 1% over the same period of last year.
-domestic production is growing rapidly, and the import pressure is heavier. Driven by strong demand and the impulse of enterprises to seize market share, the new resources of steel products have been growing strongly. From June to September 2002, the national steel output was140.72 million tons, an increase of 20% over the same period last year. It is estimated that the annual steel output will reach or approach1900,000 tons, accounting for about a quarter of the world's total steel output. The import pressure is relatively high. On the one hand, it is driven by domestic demand. On the other hand, after China's accession to the World Trade Organization, due to the reduction of tariffs and the increase of import quotas, as well as the transfer of processing enterprises of multinational companies to China, imports have increased substantially. 10 to September, China imported18.97 million tons of steel, an increase of 47.4% over the same period last year. It is estimated that the annual import volume will exceed 20 million tons, much higher than last year.
-the market price rebounded from the previous month, and some varieties rose sharply. After China's entry into the WTO, the steel market price has basically kept pace with the international market. In 2002, the United States started the "20 1 clause", the European Union, North America and Asia raised import tariffs and set up trade barriers, and Japan, the European Union and other major steel producing areas were forced to reduce production. The temporary safeguard measures for steel products implemented in China have objectively improved the relationship between supply and demand, stimulated the overall rise in the international steel market price, and also led to a sharp rebound in domestic steel prices. Judging from the listed prices of steel in major cities, the prices of all kinds of building materials generally increased by 200-300 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the year, and the prices of all kinds of plates increased by 500-800 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the year. Some varieties, such as hot rolled sheet and plate, have even skyrocketed for a period of time, and the overall benefit of the steel industry will be significantly improved.
3. Accelerate the entry of foreign capital
With the rapid development of automobile, household appliances, light industry and other industries, the consumption of plate is increasing year by year, especially the import of thin varieties of cold-rolled plate, galvanized plate and stainless steel plate is increasing year by year. It is precisely because of these gaps that foreign steel enterprises have targeted the steel market in China and increased their investment. ThyssenKrupp set up a cold rolling plant in China. United Steel Company decided to establish a United Steel branch in China, named Unionsteel, and the new coating production line was dedicated to producing coating products. Prior to this, United Steel had built a cold rolling plant in China. At the beginning of July 2002, Nippon Steel Co., Ltd., Nippon Steel Co., Ltd. and Xingye Steel Co., Ltd. also announced their decision to increase their investment in Jiangsu Changfu Stainless Steel Center, which is a joint venture engaged in the processing of stainless steel and surface treatment plates. While the scale of foreign investment is rising steadily, Taiwanese investment is growing strongly, and the iron and steel enterprises on the island are very optimistic about the investment environment in Chinese mainland. Due to the sharp increase in demand for galvanized and coated sheets in China market, Yu Sheng Iron and Steel Company of Taiwan Province Province decided to set up a factory in Bohai Bay in northern China. It is preliminarily planned that the production capacity of the first phase of the new plant will reach 6.5438+0.5 million tons, mainly producing coated boards; The galvanized sheet production plant with a capacity of 300,000 tons in the second phase will expand its investment scale to US$ 654.38+0 billion, with the goal of occupying the markets in North China, Tianjin and Beijing. Suzhou New Best Wire Rod Company, invested by Taiwan Province New Best Wire Rod Industry Company in Suzhou, Chinese mainland, will start production of carbon steel and stainless steel wire rods at the end of this year. China Trade Shanghai Branch, the first branch formally established by sinosteel in Chinese mainland, was unveiled at the end of this year 10.
At present, foreign steel companies are not only involved in galvanized sheet, wire rod, large diameter steel pipe and wire rod products, but also in environmental protection industry, logistics industry and information industry, which not only makes up for the shortcomings of some domestic steel products and technologies, but also brings new marketing theories and management methods abroad, which greatly promotes the development of Chinese steel enterprises.
Third, the development trend of China iron and steel industry
According to the report provided by the World Iron and Steel Research Institute on June 7th, 2002, the demand for steel products in China will continue to increase. It will consume14 of the world steel output in 2003, and the consumption may reach 2150,000 tons. In 2006, 5438+0 -2003, two thirds of the world's new steel consumption will come from China. China's steel demand is expected to increase by 14.8% in 2002, and will decrease slightly to 10.3% in 2003.
1. The supply and demand of steel market further increased, and the price was stable.
Generally speaking, the growth of steel consumption in China in 2002 was mainly driven by three factors: first, the country continued to implement a proactive fiscal policy; Second, driven by international economic growth; Third, the transfer of the world production base to Chinese mainland and the purchase of multinational companies in China. Due to the demand and the lowering of import threshold after China's entry into the World Trade Organization, the new resources will also maintain a high level, the growth of some products will be stronger, and the buyer pattern of the market will not change greatly. As the market price rises to a relatively high level and the supply is loose, there is little room for further price increase.
-Domestic demand grew steadily and the growth rate slowed down.
There are indications that China will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy in 2003. Although China has implemented a proactive fiscal policy for five years, it will fade out sooner or later, but at present, the conditions for complete fading out are not yet met, and at least next year, national debt will be needed to support economic growth. On the other hand, the fiscal deficit has been increasing in recent years, and the country's financial resources are limited, so it is difficult to strengthen the proactive fiscal policy. Affected by this, industrial production and investment in fixed assets will continue to grow rapidly, but the growth level will fall back. Affected by it, the corresponding steel consumption will also weaken.
-International demand was better than last year, and exports continued to maintain a certain growth. In 2003, the global economic recovery will accelerate, and the overall demand situation will be better than this year. According to the recent forecast made by the World Economic Cooperation Organization, the global economic growth rate this year and next is 1.7% and 2.9% respectively. Among them, the United States is 2.3% and 3.2%; In the EU, it is 1. 1% and 2.3%; Japan will get rid of the negative growth for two consecutive years, and it will reach the growth level of around 1% this year and next. Recently, there are signs that in 2002, the trade protectionism widely practiced in various countries has a loose trend. The most obvious example is that the United States recently extended the duty-free inspection period for imported steel. American steel import restriction protection is coming to an end. The loosening of international trade protectionism is conducive to the emergence of a better export environment. The export environment in 2003 may be better than this year, and exports will continue to grow to some extent.
-the supply of resources is relatively abundant, and the impact of imports has increased. Today's market is a global surplus market. On the one hand, China's ordinary steel production capacity is huge, and the potential for increasing production is not small. It is estimated that the national steel output will exceed 200 million tons in 2003, accounting for 1/4 of the world steel output, making it the first steel producer in the world. If there is consumer demand, it is not a problem to increase the steel output by 10% to 21100,000 tons. On the other hand, 2003 is the second year of China's accession to the World Trade Organization, and as promised, the import control will be relaxed. On June 5438+065438+ 10, 2002, China only implemented safeguard measures for five kinds of steel products, such as cold-rolled and hot-rolled plates, and four of the original nine kinds of products were not covered, so its import volume will increase accordingly. There are also signs that China will expand its bilateral trade with neighboring countries in the future and enjoy some preferential policies accordingly. In this context, low-priced imported steel may impact domestic industries.
-the price level is generally stable, and there is little room for further increase. After entering the fourth quarter of 2002, the international steel price continued to rise slowly. The gradual recovery of steel in the international market has basically ended, and its "leading role" in the domestic market has obviously weakened. In the international market, the effect of price increase stimulated by production reduction and various trade protection measures has basically appeared. Although it is still possible to raise prices after the beginning of 2003, there are many variables, such as the economic trend of major western countries, the time when the US military attacked Iraq and its negative impact on the global economy. Therefore, the global economic trend in 2003 is not very optimistic. Affected by this, the overall level of steel prices in the whole year is generally stable, and there is little room for further sharp increase. The prices of some products will drop from last month. If there are no major accidents, the year-on-year price trend is generally stable.
2. Foreign capital merger and acquisition of steel industry may become a hot spot.
After China's accession to the World Trade Organization, various laws and policies have gradually integrated with the world, the investment environment has been further improved, the potential of the domestic market has been continuously released, and its attraction to international funds has been enhanced; The changes in the security pattern of the world economy and the decline of the US stock market have prompted the capital to flow out of the United States. Judging from the actual utilization of foreign capital, China will become one of the countries attracting the most foreign capital this year. In the first nine months of 2002, the contracted foreign investment in China was US$ 68.4 billion, up 38.4% year-on-year, which indicates that the actual utilization of foreign investment in China will maintain a high level in the new year. However, due to the high base last year, it is estimated that it is difficult to have such a high growth rate this year. It is estimated that the amount of foreign capital utilized in 2003 exceeded $60 billion. In order to reduce costs and enhance competitiveness, many multinational companies have incorporated China into their global production and procurement chain, not only transferring their local or other production departments to China, but also increasing their procurement efforts in China. For example, Ford Motor Company recently announced that in order to cut costs, they will buy several billion dollars of auto parts from China by the middle of next year, thus effectively saving costs. It is this strategic adjustment of multinational companies that leads to the demand for cheap spare parts from China, thus increasing the steel consumption in China. More importantly, foreign capital M&A is one of the symbols of China's further reform and opening up after its entry into WTO, which has a lasting and far-reaching impact on the whole economic structure of the country. M&A abroad is not a simple event, and the time span should be measured in five or ten years, which has a far-reaching impact on the steel industry. It can be seen that at present, China's steel industry attracts more foreign investment and has unique advantages. Recently, the State Economic and Trade Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the State Administration for Industry and Commerce and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange jointly issued the Interim Provisions on Restructuring State-owned Enterprises with Foreign Capital, which, together with the previously issued Notice on Issues Concerning the Transfer of State-owned Shares and Legal Person Shares of Listed Companies to Foreign Investors, constitutes the policy system for restructuring state-owned enterprises with foreign capital in China. This will have an important impact on adjusting and optimizing the layout of the state-owned economy, and its related policies will also become a catalyst for foreign capital to enter the steel industry.