The fable of skyrocketing and price locking
Because of the annual report of Hebang Bio-20 18, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the Post-audit Inquiry Letter (SSE Official Letter No.2007). 20 190746), and one of the inquiries is that at the end of the reporting period, the balance of the company's prepayments was 299 million yuan, a substantial increase year-on-year. The company said that it is mainly to lock in the source of raw materials, ensure supply and stabilize costs.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange requires supplementary disclosure: the specific objects of the top five prepayments and their related relationships, and the specific reasons and rationality of the company's substantial increase in prepayments.
The annual report of 20 18 shows that the company is the largest supplier of pmida in the world, with the largest single production line in China 180,000 tons/year and the largest supplier of this product in the world.
According to the reply of Hebang Bio on May 3, this year, the reporter noticed that the company signed a yellow phosphorus supply contract at a locked price of 15000 yuan/ton.
The reason for signing this contract is simple: the company predicts that the supply of yellow phosphorus will be "tight and the price will rise" in the fourth quarter of 20 18 and the first quarter of 20 19.
The reason is that it observed that in the third quarter of 20 18, the supply of yellow phosphorus was once tight because the central environmental protection supervision strengthened the supervision of Yunnan, the main producing area of yellow phosphorus.
Hobon creatures have a keen sense of smell!
Looking at it now, signing this "price-locked and quantity-guaranteed" supply contract can be called a wave of "divine operation" stepping on the market-you know, the price of yellow phosphorus today is experiencing an unprecedented surge.
According to the Wind database, on July 9th, the price of yellow phosphorus was still RMB 0/5500 per ton 17000, but it suddenly jumped to RMB 20,000 per ton 1 1.
Since then, the price of yellow phosphorus has further increased. As of July 15, its price has reached 22,500 yuan/ton, up 45. 16% compared with July 9.
In contrast, Chengxing Co., Ltd. has recently become a remarkable "demon stock"-the company mainly produces and sells fine phosphorus chemical products such as yellow phosphorus, phosphoric acid and phosphate.
In the early morning of July 16, Chengxing shares once again reported 6.86 yuan, up 9.94%. This is the fifth daily limit that Chengxing has gained since July 10. But in fact, the yellow phosphorus produced by Chengxing Company is mainly used as the raw material for the production of phosphoric acid, and the external sales account for a relatively small proportion. ...
All this stems from the sudden "face change" of the price of yellow phosphorus.
What is saved is profit.
Hebang Bio, which "locks in the price" in advance, is a big consumer of yellow phosphorus.
Yellow phosphorus is also the main purchased raw material and the "core factor" of cost control in the production of iminodiacetic acid products by Hebang Bio.
According to the reporter's understanding, all raw materials for the production of iminodiacetic acid by Hebang Bio need to be purchased from outside. In the case of normal production of PMIDA products, Hebang Bio needs to buy about 2,300 tons of phosphorus from the market every month.
Obviously, this expenditure is not a small sum. The real money saved is profit.
As the world's largest supplier of iminodiacetic acid, Hebang Bio also produces glyphosate, which is still the most used herbicide in the world. Iminodiacetic acid is an intermediate of glyphosate and one of the main raw materials for the synthesis of glyphosate.
In 20 18, hebang bio achieved revenue of 6.009 billion yuan, the best level since its listing. In 20 18, the company's glyphosate production increased by about 43.52%, sales increased by about 69.82%, and glyphosate business income increased by 8 1.66%, reaching137 billion yuan.
You know, four years ago, Hebang Bio-glyphosate business just started. Now the company is working hard to increase the glyphosate production capacity to 6.5438+0.4 million tons/year, which is expected to become the largest and only full-process IDA glyphosate production enterprise in China.
Under the dual pressure of domestic supply-side reform and environmental protection supervision, the glyphosate industry has long been shuffled out.
It is understood that after 20 17 domestic glyphosate production capacity dropped sharply, there was almost no new production capacity. In 20 18, the number of enterprises started decreased from more than 30 to about 10, and the actual effective production capacity was about 518,300 tons.
Can go today, the national biology does have many unique functions.
There are two preparation processes of glyphosate, one is glycine method, the other is natural gas IDA method, and Bangbio chose the latter.
Take the skyrocketing price of yellow phosphorus as an example. According to industry sources, the glycine method consumes 300 kilograms of yellow phosphorus for every ton of glyphosate produced. Hobon Bio uses IDA method, which consumes 258kg of yellow phosphorus per ton of glyphosate, 40kg less. The cost advantage is conservatively estimated, saving 1000 yuan per ton compared with the production of glyphosate by glycine method.
The reporter's investigation found that after the price increase of yellow phosphorus, organophosphorus pesticide products also began to raise prices, and glyphosate has been closed by enterprises.
"At present, the price increase of glyphosate only offsets the price increase factor of yellow phosphorus, and there is still room in the later stage." The above-mentioned insiders told reporters that the price may rise by 3,000-4,000 yuan in the short term. According to the transaction price of glyphosate in the previous period, it should be raised to 27,000-28,000 yuan, which should be a reasonable price.
According to customs data over the years, June-August is the off-season for glyphosate export. From 20 16, the annual peak of glyphosate price is in 165438+ 10 and 65438+February.
Behind this, the glyphosate industry chain is about to enter the boom cycle as a whole, which may not be an idiotic dream.
According to reports, at present, Hebang Bio is optimizing the PMIDA project process, so that the company's PMIDA production capacity can be fully released. After the optimization is completed, the company's capacity utilization rate will increase by about 20%, and the status of the industry unicorn will be further consolidated.
Due to the leading technology, reasonable scale matching, cost control and market operation, the Hebang Bio-phosphonomethyl project has also improved the industry pattern, which has enabled many glyphosate production enterprises to actively choose phosphonomethyl as raw material to prepare glyphosate.
Non-removable pillar
The foresight of "price lock-in" of Hebang Bio lies in that the management has long realized that one of the basic logics for the prosperity recovery of phosphate rock, glyphosate and other industries lies in increasingly strict environmental protection. To this end, it has always adhered to "two firm beliefs."
The first firmly believes that environmental protection will strengthen the supply side, and the industry is expected to enter a prosperous period after governance.
At present, this logic is gradually being fulfilled.
China's yellow phosphorus producing areas are concentrated in Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou and Hubei provinces, and the output of Yunnan, Guizhou and Sichuan accounts for more than 90%. On July 3, a report in CCTV's Focus Interview revealed that the pollution situation of some yellow phosphorus production enterprises in Yunnan, Guizhou and Sichuan was "not optimistic".
Today, when we are paying attention to environmental protection from top to bottom, this heavy exposure is undoubtedly a stone that stirs up thousands of waves.
Previously, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment also issued the "Implementation Plan for Special Investigation and Remediation of Phosphorus in the Yangtze River". According to the arrangement, the environmental improvement of yellow phosphorus enterprises will be completed first this year.
CCTV reported the rapid escalation of catalysis and rectification. The utilization rate of yellow phosphorus production capacity in China plummeted from 66.5% to 37. 1% within one week. At present, yellow phosphorus enterprises in all areas of Guizhou, Mabian area of Sichuan and most areas of Yunnan have stopped.
The supply is obviously tight, and the storage of yellow phosphorus is very dangerous. Many factories use it when they buy it, and the price is transmitted quickly.
The price of yellow phosphorus suddenly went crazy, and some people laughed and naturally some people cried. Enterprises with advanced layout, such as Hebang Bio, will continue to benefit from the policy dividends released after the follow-up industries are cleared.
The strength of Hobon Bio's advanced layout comes from its long-term in-depth thinking on the whole industrial chain and its firm promotion of the company's strategic objectives-this is the second "firm belief".
Hebang Bio has always believed that only with a global vision can it be "most competitive" at the core business level, which is a high-quality development advocated by the state.
According to the financial report, from 20 16 to 20 18, the ending balance of construction in progress of Hebang Bio was165438+67 million yuan, 925 million yuan and1864 million yuan respectively. Especially in 20 18, the ending balance of the company's construction in progress was the highest since listing. The company's projects under construction include methionine project process upgrading, phosphonomethyl iminodiacetic acid process optimization and other projects.
After more than two years of huge capital expenditure, Hebang Bio is about to usher in the harvest period after industrial upgrading-these projects will make the company's products more competitive, improve the company's profitability and reduce the company's financial costs.
According to the annual report, the gross profit margin of phosphonomethyl phosphate and glyphosate of Hebang Bio is slightly higher than that of the same industry, mainly because Hebang Bio has the whole process technology and has the cost advantage compared with the listed companies in the same industry.
Build high walls and accumulate grain widely. Hebang Bio is fully promoting the development model of the whole industrial chain.
Other selected companies include Ding Peng Holdings (002938), which has the largest PCB market share in the world, En Jie Co., Ltd. (0028 12), the world-leading Nastar (002 180) and Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438).
There are both absolute leaders in some sub-sectors and unknown small and medium-sized enterprises.
But these enterprises, like ties, constitute a complete industrial chain. In this regard, TF Securities commented: Under the background of industrial upgrading and trade friction, they have become the mainstay of the industrial chain.
This article is from Investor.com.
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