Pay tribute to Suzhou's mysterious property market policy: polarization and contradiction unity of optimism and pessimism

Recently, Suzhou's property market policies have come and gone, and the atmosphere is more subtle.

First of all, Suzhou's recent policy is not widely publicized through official announcements, and then a time is agreed to implement it. It is "quietly entering the village, not making moves", and various policy adjustments are not announced at all, but are directly implemented.

For example, I swiped the screen in my circle of friends last night. This morning, various media called the provident fund center to confirm the adjustment of Suzhou provident fund policy. This is a recent case:

Before the contact, policies such as lowering the social security threshold for buying houses in Suzhou, shortening the sales restriction period of second-hand houses in Suzhou, and allowing foreigners to buy houses directly after selling houses in Suzhou were directly implemented without announcement. It can only be said that the adjustment of Suzhou property market is really low-key.

Secondly, Suzhou's recent policies are indeed frequent, but the policy that can really stir up the property market directly, which is what we call the "killer", has not yet appeared.

Two characteristics, so that the Suzhou property market cage on a mysterious veil.

Any rumor circulating in the circle of friends adds a layer of credibility, especially all kinds of news obtained at night, such as "Schrodinger's cat".

Before 8 o'clock the next morning, before calling the official department to confirm, these rumors were all true and false, and there was no way to infer them through experience and logic.

In such an environment, the mentality of friends in the industry has also produced a very subtle polarization, which is quite interesting:

One pole is an optimist. No matter what policy comes down, we must open a bottle of champagne and shout: "Suzhou property market is booming from now on!" "

They reveled in the WeChat group and actively advocated "property market revival" and "house prices will rise".

Combined with the situation of Suzhou property market, you will find that what they said seems to have some truth:

House prices in Suzhou have been very stable in recent years, even on CCTV.

In the recent outbreak, the management level of Suzhou has performed well, which has a good role in promoting the next "talent introduction" work.

Recently, Suzhou's successive policies, even if not very strong, are a very clear signal, which clearly shows the government's determination to support Suzhou's property market.

Coupled with the optimistic about the future urban development potential of Suzhou, in the long run, the houses in Suzhou do have some value.

On the other hand, it seems a lot more pessimistic, thinking that these policy adjustments currently introduced by Suzhou property market have little impact.

They are disheartened that the Suzhou property market has not improved much, and the official will not greatly open the Suzhou market. At present, these policy adjustments are only scratch the surface, and the promotion of the property market is very limited.

Take the increase in the amount of provident fund that landed today. After a little calculation, I found that if an individual buys a house with a total price of 6.5438+0.8 million, he can pay off the down payment of 600,000 and the remaining 6.5438+0.2 million. After adjustment, he can borrow 600,000 provident fund for 20 years. According to the algorithm of equal principal and interest, the result is:

Therefore, before the adjustment, the provident fund can only be loaned to 450,000, which requires 750,000 commercial loans. It is also a loan for 20 years. If the principal and interest are equal, the result is:

Monthly payment 100, and the total repayment amount is 20,000 less.

Looking back at the recent relaxation of several policies, it really has no particularly immediate effect on the Suzhou property market.

For example, the social security requirement for buying a house has been reduced from "24 months in three years" to "24 months in three years"; The restricted period of second-hand houses was shortened from five years to three years.

These measures have not expanded the housing groups in Suzhou, and it is even impossible to overdraw the housing groups in Suzhou.

Coupled with the impact of the economic environment, under the main tone of "living without speculation", most people's enthusiasm for buying houses has declined, and the property market really can't be as ups and downs as in previous years. So the pessimist's point of view is also very reasonable.

More interestingly, optimists have no doubt that the current property market is not what it was a few years ago, and the past experience cannot be applied to the present and the future;

Pessimists, on the other hand, look forward to the counterattack of the property market and its healthy, stable and rapid development.

Contradictory mentality is a true portrayal of Suzhou real estate people now.

After all, Suzhou's cautious property market policy is mainly for the stability of the property market.

In the face of the epidemic, it is natural to introduce favorable policies to help property buyers and development enterprises tide over the difficulties.

The delay in landing the "killer weapon" shows that Suzhou is very cautious and serious about "stabilizing the property market".

Take the format of an online sentence in Suzhou property market, which is:

You can always trust Suzhou's control over the rhythm of the property market.

Next, the first local auction in Suzhou is approaching, and many people speculate that the influential property market policy may be released before the end of May.

This time, Suzhou will not get rich again.