What is the policy? Of course, the core is still credit. Without funds, real estate cannot rise, so historically, the rise of the real estate market is closely related to the degree of credit easing. Especially in the past year or so, the rise of the real estate market has a very high correlation with the business loans entering the building.
Then, to analyze and judge the market in the first quarter of 20021and the future market trend, we must look at the first quarter credit data released by the central bank:
On April 12, the financial data and social financing data released by the central bank in the first quarter showed that even under the influence of the high base affected by the epidemic last year, the scale of new bank credit in the first quarter of this year was still considerable.
In the first quarter of this year, RMB loans increased by 7.67 trillion yuan. Even on the basis of a high base in the same period last year, the year-on-year increase was still 574 1 100 million yuan.
"The rapid growth of personal debt is closely related to China's economic development stage, the age structure of residents, consumption upgrading, urbanization development and other factors. Overall, the growth rate of personal loans will maintain rapid growth. Ruan said that from the structural point of view, the new personal loans are "one liter and one drop", which means that the growth rate of personal business loans has rebounded, while the growth rate of personal housing loans has declined.
At the end of March, the balance of individual housing loans increased by 14.5% year-on-year, which was 0.2 and 1.4 percentage points lower than that of last month and the same period of last year respectively. Personal business loans increased by 24.6% year-on-year, which was 1 1.5 percentage points higher than the same period of last year.
Some hot cities in the property market have intensified their efforts to investigate and deal with the illegal inflow of personal business loans into the property market. Even so, the data of new credit in March showed that the medium and long-term new credit of residents mainly with personal housing mortgage loans was obviously off-season. In the month, residents' medium and long-term new loans reached 623.9 billion yuan, an increase of 2 126 billion from the previous month. Under the background of rising base, it still increased by 654.38+05065438+billion, which was still hot with the sales of commercial housing in that month.
1: for the first time in history, the medium-and long-term loans of households in a single quarter are 2 trillion yuan!
In the first quarter of 2002/kloc-0, RMB loans increased by 7.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 574 1 100 million yuan. By sector, household loans increased by 2.56 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 582.9 billion yuan, and medium-and long-term loans increased by 1.98 trillion yuan;
The financial statistics report for the first quarter of 2020 shows that RMB loans increased by 7 1 trillion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 1.29 trillion yuan year-on-year. By sector, household loans increased by 1.2 1 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 50.9 billion yuan and medium-and long-term loans increased by 1.26 trillion yuan.
Looking at the data of the same period before, in the first quarter of 20 19, loans from the household sector increased by 1.8 1 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 429.2 billion yuan and medium-and long-term loans increased by 1.38 trillion yuan; In the first quarter of 20 18, loans from households increased by 1.75 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 466.9 billion yuan and medium-and long-term loans increased by 1.29 trillion yuan;
As we all know, the core of medium and long-term family loans is mortgage. In previous years, the highest household loan was about 5 trillion, and it was as high as 2 trillion in the first quarter of 2002/kloc-0. If this data is added up, it is 7-8 trillion.
2. Operating loans hit a record high.
According to the data of the central bank, the amount of operating loans is still amazing, so the property market in hot cities is still active.
Before 20 19, it is unlikely to use commercial loans to buy a house because it is unprofitable. Generally speaking, operating loans will be paid off in 1-3 years, and the interest rate is much higher than that of mortgage loans. In this case, most people will not use commercial loans to buy a house. The gain is outweighed by the loss.
But by 2020, because of special policies, the operating loan cycle is getting longer and longer, and the interest rate is much lower than that of mortgage loans, so buyers and banks have the idea of moving into the building with operating loans.
The core reason why operating loans flow into the property market is the spread with mortgage loans, which has a lot to do with banks being both athletes and referees in the process of lending. From the bank's point of view, the risk of operating loans is relatively higher than that of mortgage loans, but the interest rate of operating loans is lower than that of mortgage loans under the policy requirements, so the implementation of banks is distorted, which encourages operating loans to enter the property market in disguise.
The recent crackdown has been very strong, which has cracked down on some acts of using new houses and newly registered enterprises to obtain commercial loans in the short term. The strength of this policy will definitely curb the overheating of the market, return operating loans to the essence, help enterprises operate, and to some extent curb the irrational and unhealthy development of the entire property market.
But as long as the spread exists, any policy can only cure the symptoms, not the root cause!
In the case of operating loan interest rate of 3-4 and mortgage loan interest rate of 5-6, the spread is as high as 2 points, and the operating loan cycle and mortgage loan can basically be 20 years.
The same loan is 3 million yuan, and the interest of mortgage loan for house purchase is 820 thousand less than that of commercial loan!
In addition, the biggest impact of the proliferation of operating loans is the discrimination against the just-needed, most of which are suitable for investment in housing, and are basically concentrated in improved luxury homes, so this round of property market boom obviously started from the middle and high-end market. From the second quarter of 2020, from Shenzhen, Shanghai and Hangzhou, mid-to-high-end properties suddenly became popular.
Commercial loans to buy a house have spread from first-tier cities such as Shenzhen and Shanghai to second-tier cities.
From the perspective of operating loans, the current banking supervision websites are basically second-and third-tier cities, which shows that this scale is very large.
The fundamental reason for operating loans to enter the building is two-point spread. For commercial banks that are both referees and athletes, the interest rate of high-risk operating loans is low, and the interest rate of low-risk mortgage loans is high, so it is natural to move. If the spread between operating loans and mortgage loans is not leveled, then operating loans will not be managed.
To sum up briefly, most of China people's personal loans are for buying houses. According to central bank data, personal loans increased by 2.6 trillion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 1.4 trillion yuan year-on-year. This data supports the real estate market in the storm-like regulation, why can it keep the volume and price rising together.
Will the house prices that many buyers care about fall? In fact, the core is to look at credit. As long as the personal loan data released by the central bank rises year-on-year, house prices will not fall.
The core of real estate regulation and control is to adjust the bank, and the bank's money can't be managed. Any regulation can only be spring breeze, including housing prices in first-and second-tier cities such as Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou. Generally speaking, in an environment with abundant credit, rising is still the mainstream.