Editor? /? Zhang? south
Design? /? Du? triumphant
"My own prediction is that the sales of electric vehicles in Europe will surpass China this year, and the world's number one electric vehicle market in China will be taken away by Europe this year."
On August 6th, 2002, Zeng Yuqun, Chairman of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., attended the agenda of the 12th China Blue Book Forum on Automobile, and delivered a speech entitled "Innovation Driven? Keynote speech on sustainable development of new energy vehicles. He made the above prediction in his speech.
EV？ Sales? According to the blog data, in the first half of 2020, the number of new energy vehicles registered in the European market (including the European Union and the European Free Trade Association EFTA) was 4,065,438+0,000; In the first half of the year, the cumulative sales volume of the domestic new energy vehicle market was 310.3 million.
Therefore, from the sales data alone, in the first half of this year, the European market has surpassed China and ranked first in the world's new energy terminal sales market. Zeng Yuqun's worry seems reasonable.
The week before, on August 5th, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. broke out a major cooperation with Mercedes-Benz and Schneider Electric. Since the beginning of this year, good news such as Honda's shareholding and orders from multinational OEMs have continued, and its share price and market value have been rising all the way, with a market value of more than 450 billion yuan.
From 20 17 to 20 19, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. has always been the "first brother" in the global power battery market share. However, in the first half of this year, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. was surpassed by LG.
SNE？ Research data show that in the first half of this year, LG Chem's share in the power battery market was 24.6%, higher than 65,438+00.4% in the same period last year, ranking first in the world. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, Limited ranked second with a market share of 23.5% in the first half of the year, slightly lower than 25. 1% in the same period last year.
In his speech, Zeng Yuqun shared the timetable of electrification of mainstream auto companies around the world. For example, by 2025, BMW will be 33%, Volkswagen will be 25% and Volvo will be 50%. He believes that such a radical goal was caused by Tesla, a catfish man.
"We are in great pain, and I also appeal to all the leaders here, as well as the policy makers and consumers in the automobile industry, not to get up so early to catch a late episode, because we have completed all the infrastructure and people are starting to sell well." Zeng Yuquan appealed at the forum.
He also shared the attempts and progress of contemporary Anpu Technology Co., Ltd. in material innovation, system structure innovation, intelligent manufacturing innovation and business model innovation, and thought that only innovation and breakthrough in these aspects can bring real sustainable development.
The following is the full text of Zeng Yuqun's speech.
Dear leaders, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, good morning! Today, I am honored to have the opportunity to stand here and give you a report on our thinking about new energy vehicles and the new four modernizations of automobiles of contemporary Anpu Technology Co., Ltd., which have not changed for a hundred years.
Our thinking may not only consider the automobile industry, but also consider the whole new energy industry, including power generation. Because all our new energy vehicles now use batteries, but electricity may still use old energy to generate electricity. We hope it can become a renewable energy source in the future.
What is the significance of renewable energy to us human beings? If electric vehicles can become energy storage devices and support the development of renewable energy, it will be a common development and our deepest development for the development and future changes of electric vehicles.
The topic of my report is innovation drive, and I have been talking about innovation drive. We feel that if there is no real innovation, all the resources we can rely on may become less and less.
The first part of my report is called storm surge. How can we change it and communicate it? The second part is science and technology leading. What exactly is it? In our understanding, it is four-dimensional innovation. The third part is Qi Xin's joint efforts to create a new chapter.
As we all know, global warming and energy transformation are imperative. This picture is very important. The temperature is rising. This is really what we humans need to grasp. Recently, in Fuzhou, which is called the hottest city in China, I think we Fujian people in Fuzhou should work harder to lower the temperature.
As you can see, according to the Paris Agreement, the proportion of renewable energy in electricity will be 24% in 2020 and 86% in 2050. This change is particularly important and has a particularly large background. In this context, we talk about energy reform and automobile electrification.
At present, electrification is the general trend. Everyone knows that the energy revolution, especially the recent energy revolution in Europe, has forced many automobile manufacturers to make electric vehicles because their carbon emission targets are not up to standard. Actually, he is an electric car. If the charging is still from fossil energy, it may not meet the standard. Therefore, renewable energy is very urgent, and it is necessary to turn oil, fossil energy, coal and oil into renewable energy.
The third car enterprise transformation, as well as consumption upgrading. Thanks to the efforts of our car peers, cars have become more interesting and intelligent.
The last one is infrastructure. Due to our new infrastructure, our charging pile infrastructure has also undergone great changes.
Basically, these are some predictions. We can see that the compound annual growth rate from 20 19 to 2025 is 32.5%, and this industry needs a lot of investment and capacity changes. At present, as you can see, many countries have begun to ban the sale of fuel-powered cars. The most important ones are Japan and Germany, which are real automobile powers or automobile powers. Their goal is 2050, which sounds quite far away, but I think the speed in the future may be much faster than this.
We have contacted all the car companies in the world, and they are really active in the layout of electrification, and they are constantly changing. The original automobile companies, such as some automobile companies, set up a platform, hoping to manufacture fuel vehicles, HEV, PHEV and electrification at the same time. It hopes that its platform can be used by * *. But because Tesla, as a catfish, has stirred up the planning of electric vehicles all over the world, I feel that I have accelerated my pace.
As you can see, these companies have gathered to lay out electric platforms, and the electrification targets of various car companies will be 33% for BMW, 25% for Volkswagen and 50% for Volvo by 2025. Finally, Tesla said it would sell 3 million cars, which was more radical than our chairman Xu Liuping. We can see the most important point that car companies are very enthusiastic about making electric cars.
Why? Because basically by 2025, the whole initial purchase cost should be that fuel vehicles are almost the same as traditional vehicles. What kind of special experience can new energy vehicles bring to consumers, just like smart phones, so we don't need Nokia's old models. Old mobile phones are called old man-machine now, because they are not intelligent, they can only make calls, as long as 100 yuan. Now the price of smart phones exceeds 1 10,000 yuan.
I think that in the process of brand upgrading and consumption upgrading, it is not only the upgrading of brands, but the upgrading of consumers' own experience. If the consumer feels good, he is willing to pay a high price. This is what I think of you. Just like Weilai Automobile, when Tesla entered China, people thought it would not sell, but it still sold well because it gave people a different experience. So I think the whole automobile industry should rethink whether this brand will sell well in a hundred years, or if you can really give customers a good experience, it will come out with this good experience.
In the first half of this year, the sales of our new energy vehicles fell very sharply. As you can see, Europe has increased by 52%, while we have decreased by 44%, which is very clear. My own prediction is that the sales of electric vehicles in Europe this year will surpass China, the world's number one market, and Europe will take away this year's electric vehicle market.
We are in great pain, and I also appeal to all the leaders here, as well as the decision makers and consumers in the automobile industry, not to get up so early and catch a late gathering, because we have completed all the infrastructure and people are selling well.
Take Tesla for example. In fact, by 20 15, we can see that its annual sales are very small, basically more than 50,000 vehicles, similar to Weilai. Since the model? After 3 came out, it rushed a lot, which basically increased by 150%, so its brand was still from high-end to slightly lower, and then the level of intelligence was higher. In my opinion, there are still many opportunities for real growth among many new car-making forces in China.
Infrastructure, I don't need to report too much. As we all know, the basic compound growth rate last year was 45.3%, and there is no place to charge in the future. This is not a problem. Therefore, renewable energy, new energy vehicles, 5G, autonomous driving and advanced energy storage, I think the combination of these five technologies can really promote the revolution of energy and transportation.
Science and technology are leading. We have worked in Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. for so many years. Our team started to do it on 1999, and it has been 2 1 year now, so our thinking about batteries is very deep. Of course, it is the most important. Our own understanding is to innovate.
What innovation? The most important thing is material innovation. It seems that there are only a few materials in the world, because no one can jump out of the Nobel Prize. So if we stop the research and development in the field of materials and copy the original things, it will be useless for you to do 10 years. Therefore, we have done a lot of work and invested a lot of basic research in institutional innovation in the field of materials.
The second is the innovation of system structure, such as good soft package, good hard shell, what is better, standing or lying, CTP and so on. These are impossible without professional research, so structural transformation is very important.
Of course, the innovation of intelligent manufacturing is also very important. In any case, the safety and reliability of batteries are very difficult. This difficulty, because I have been in the manufacturing field for many years, has been made by the manufacturing industry. Where is the difficulty? Is its low probability event. It is very difficult to control low probability events. Because a car has 100 batteries, a battery has a positive electrode and a negative electrode, or 100 gaskets, 100× 100 is 10,000 cars, which is very large.
How to deal with such a large quantity, so intelligent manufacturing is very important. Any production line we are talking about now, any so-called thing, is actually open to question, and we feel very painful and broken ourselves. Therefore, intelligent manufacturing innovation is a real innovation in the future, and it is very important to make a truly safe and reliable battery.
The last one is business model innovation. Everyone says that batteries are too expensive and need some new business models. Therefore, I think it is a very good exploration to talk about various modes such as changing electricity and leasing in the future. Only through new innovation can we really promote our intellectualization and electrification process.
Our company also reported the recent establishment of a 2 1C innovation laboratory, with an R&D investment of 3.3 billion yuan. Over the past five years, it has developed 1 000 people, most of whom are masters. We also welcome friends, relatives and aspiring people to join us here or here. This is a good opportunity. This laboratory is jointly built with the government, but it is a business model of private enterprises. This laboratory is a laboratory in Fujian province, which can also be called the level within the system. You can still maintain the level of professor, but the treatment is provided by us in Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. We have a lot of such research and innovation.
Basically, I'm talking about material model innovation, or basic computing. So our material properties, Qualcomm calculation and simulation calculation are our core, where we can produce some new materials and systems.
System structure innovation, which is what we call CTP, has been abandoned, and CTP finally we hope to be effective.
In the smart factory, we also mentioned intelligent manufacturing, how to plan the industry, how to manufacture equipment, what is the alpha of the equipment, and what is the beta of the equipment sometimes? These things are very hard for us. We have to dig them one by one. At this time, what I am most afraid of is that the whole system is not completely innovated, or the second factory is copied, so the expansion of the third factory is very hard.
Yesterday, someone asked me, can't your production capacity keep up with the development? I said that it is very difficult to copy the production capacity well and make it truly safe and reliable, because with a little change, everything may cause you difficulties.
We hope to achieve real safety, high specific energy, self-control temperature, ultra-fast charging, long life and intelligent management. Of course, the industrial chain is a model innovation, we have raw materials, we have minerals and materials recycling, so the value created by the whole industrial chain is there. Finally, in fact, in order to support our customers, we can make more electric cars.
The most difficult customers are those whose electric cars cost 80,000 yuan to 6.5438+0.2 million yuan, because batteries are too expensive to buy. This part of customers does exist in large numbers. Therefore ... we must find a valuable opportunity from the whole industrial chain and integrate with customers in order to truly manufacture in large quantities.
We are also doing a lot of experiments, step by step, the most important one is that the interest rate is still too high. This means that I made 2 million kilometers of batteries in 65438+2006, and the money has multiplied many times, which makes no sense to us. Assuming negative interest rate or a little interest rate, it will be much better.
Finally, I summed up a sentence: "The vegetation is good with the New Year, and the winter buds come first in the year." Thank you, Dr. Jacques, thank you all!
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.