On August 10, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice requesting all localities to prevent large-scale demolition and construction in urban construction, and strictly control demolition, addition and relocation to form "excessive real estate". And put forward the hard index that the demolition area of the old city should not exceed 20%.
At the end of July, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, together with eight departments, launched a rectification campaign, which will focus on rectifying outstanding problems such as real estate development, housing sales, leasing and property services, and strive to achieve a marked improvement in market order within three years. Since the beginning of August, Shenzhen, Beijing, Hangzhou, Jinhua, Guangzhou and Dongguan have stepped up regulation and control, and taken measures such as restricting purchases, restricting loans, cracking down on fake divorce, investigating fraudulent loans and real estate speculation. The "restlessness" of the third and fourth lines has not been ignored, and Yinchuan, Xuzhou, Jinhua, Quanzhou, Huizhou and other places have been included in the monitoring list.
You know, it's only the first half of August. Throughout the first half of the year, the rectification and rectification measures in the real estate sector have become more intensive. In the first seven months, there were more than 320 adjustments nationwide, and the regulatory authorities directly introduced 46 measures. Not only housing chaos and urban renewal have been rectified, but the cash flow of developers is also a long-standing problem.
According to the Cailian Association, housing enterprises that have been included in the debt ratio supervision have recently been restricted from buying land, requiring that they should not exceed 40% of annual sales.
We should know that the reason why three red lines will be implemented for housing enterprises is to curb the irregular expansion of the real estate industry, especially for those housing enterprises that are already short of funds and continue to increase leverage, and the financing scale will be strictly limited. Limiting the proportion of land developers taking land again now is to find ways to reduce the risk of blind land auction and high-priced land auction.
After the implementation of several measures, the hands and feet of housing enterprises are "tied", from finance to land acquisition to financing channels, which is tantamount to a blow to developers who are extremely dependent on capital flow. After all, in the past few years, many companies, such as Taihe, Fu Sheng and Huaxia Happiness, have been forced to stop work and fail due to problems such as debt backlog and financial turmoil. This is also the reason why the central bank continues to tighten the regulation of housing enterprises, and can no longer let housing enterprises grow at will.
From the perspective of real estate developers, in the face of repeated regulation, there are fewer and fewer channels to borrow money. It seems that there is only one way to lose less and earn more.
Therefore, in the critical period of August-September, in the next 30 days, housing enterprises may compete to set off a "discount tide", with real estate discounts and a "discount window" in the property market. There are two reasons.
Because the debts that housing enterprises have to repay on time will not be postponed in the future. RealData shows that in 20021year, the debt scale of real estate enterprises was1282.2 billion yuan, which was the peak of debt repayment during 20 19-2023. According to this trend, the scale of debt repayment in 2022 is expected to remain at a high level of around 900 billion.
I have to admit that in the last two years, more and more housing enterprises have closed down, closed their doors, and even run away, and even leading housing enterprises have begun to yield. Most of the consequences are caused by the previous pre-sale system. Housing enterprises can realize the sales steps of quickly taking land, building houses, withdrawing funds and taking land again, and obtain funds in various ways. On the surface, they have expanded their sphere of influence, but in fact, they owe a lot of money through constant high turnover, and may still owe buyers' houses and tens of thousands of real estate employees' wages.
Therefore, whether it is a large-scale housing enterprise or a small and medium-sized developer, no matter how the property market is regulated and how enterprises rectify, the debts belonging to housing enterprises will not be postponed indefinitely. It may be ok to delay for a few months, but I'm afraid it won't work for a few years. Sooner or later, it will be returned with interest. Of course, where does the money come from? Discount, of course, is low, and we should try our best to sell the house.
As we all know, in a year, real estate developers have three "rush to run" time windows: Spring Festival, Xiaoyangchun and Golden September and Silver 10. Although the Spring Festival this year continued the fiery market at the end of last year, both the market turnover and the price rose. However, with the increase in the regulation of the property market in March, Xiaoyangchun has obviously been destroyed. In view of the two red lines of financial measures and mortgage increase, as well as the price limit of second-hand houses, so far, 10 cities have started price control to fully control the funds flowing into the property market.
The sales situation of listed real estate enterprises in July showed that the sales amount and sales area of 14 head real estate enterprises ushered in a general decline. 202 1 semi-annual report of real estate enterprises shows that the sales performance in the first six months is not as good as expected, and obviously the performance pressure in the second half of the year is even greater.
Therefore, at present, real estate developers can seize the opportunity of "Golden September and Silver 10", that is, in the next 30 days, as the prefix and transition period of Jin Jiu, in order to get a beautiful report card, they are likely to bite the bullet and engage in sales promotion.
Understand these two premises, as a property buyer, starting from September, the mentality of buying a house will be like "buying cabbage". Because it is now a "buyer's market", not a "seller's market". For developers, as mentioned above, according to this year's regulation and control efforts and the unprecedented debt peak this year, there is no doubt that real estate developers will still have the motivation to discount before the golden September and silver 10 start.
In such an environment, when buying a house, everyone can maintain the same critical attitude as "buying cabbage" in the market. Don't buy a house because of impulse, and don't start hollowing out the property at home without thinking because of the "forced words" of the sales consultant. After all, it was not the period of national general increase three years ago. At the moment when the country strictly controls market chaos, the regulation has not been relaxed at all. At present, housing prices have entered a stable range, and the discount pressure of developers should add caution to our road to buying a house. As the biggest expense in many people's lives, it is the right attitude to be as picky as visiting the vegetable market.
In fact, this should be combined with the current market environment, because the differentiation of the property market is a foregone conclusion. On the one hand, limited by the urbanization rate and the separation of people and households, it is still difficult for cities below the third and fourth lines to make great improvements in the environment with fewer takers. It is worth mentioning that small and medium-sized housing enterprises are generally rooted in the third and fourth lines. For those who just need it in small cities, there is more room for bargaining in the future.
On the other hand, the concessions in first-and second-tier cities are limited, but there will still be surprises. Many big cities have stepped up the regulation of real estate speculation, and the price control of second-hand houses has reduced the transaction volume, which indicates that the high-end market may also usher in cooling down.
Fang said, you have something to say, just as Cao said in his advice on real estate: to solve the real estate problem, don't build so many houses, lest bank funds and labor resources flow to the real estate industry. After all, the real salvation of enterprises is self-help. In a simple sentence, there were too many good days in real estate in the past. Housing enterprises, real estate speculators, people with houses, and almost all those who participated in the property market tasted the sweetness. Now 202 1, it is time to reverse this obsession.
The article "Reasonable housing price is a city's competitiveness" by the central media Xinhuanet pointed out that the real estate problem is related to people's livelihood, and the city must take measures to solve the housing problem of all kinds of people. From the reaction of the central media and Cao's suggestion, we can see that the trend of real estate is basically clear, and the era of rising is gone forever, but it is impossible to estimate that housing will fall.