How to improve the accuracy of market demand forecast by account managers

To improve the accuracy of market demand forecast is to make the forecast data closer to the market and reflect the real face of the market more truly. As the main body of forecasting, the accuracy of cigarette market demand forecasting in its jurisdiction is directly related to the quality of the whole enterprise's supply organization according to orders. Then, how should account managers improve the accuracy of cigarette demand forecast in their respective markets? The author thinks that the work can be carried out from the following three aspects. First, do a good job in customer demand forecasting training, improve the accuracy of customer reporting data 1, and do a good job in customer publicity and guidance. Through the distribution of publicity materials, face-to-face training and other means, the significance, requirements and processes of cigarette market demand forecast, the accuracy of market forecast and the interest relationship between retail customers are widely publicized, so as to guide customers to reflect the real demand and make the forecast data more true, reasonable and accurate. 2. Strengthen effective communication with customers. When collecting the customer's order demand, the account manager should pay attention to the statistics of the customer's sales data, help the customer to take stock of the cigarette inventory structure, analyze the recent cigarette sales trend, and thus predict the cigarette demand of all grades and brands. Only by doing it with heart and being honest with each other can we establish a good and harmonious relationship with retail customers, finally gain their understanding, win their support and trust, and further improve the accuracy of market demand forecasting. Second, do a good job in scientific correction of the original forecast data, improve their own demand forecasting ability 1, and do a good job in correcting the forecast data according to historical data. According to the historical sales data of cigarette retail customers, the account manager should add uncertain factors in time on the basis of stable forecast to make the forecast more accurate. 2. Revise forecast data according to customer inventory. On the premise of fully grasping the inventory information of cigarette retail customers, the account manager should analyze and guide the customers whose inventory was too large or too small last month, and appropriately adjust the number of reported demand forecasts to make the revised demand forecast data more scientific and reasonable. 3. Modify forecast data according to customer category. Account managers should revise the forecast data of classified customers according to factors such as cigarette business structure, business ability, business scale, business location, capital turnover and sales target. 4. Modify the forecast data according to the cigarette brand. The account manager should revise the forecast data according to the company's brand cultivation plan, the brand habits of consumers in regional markets, and the period of brand entering the market, so as to lay a good foundation for the cultivation of key brands. 5. Modify forecast data according to market changes. Account managers should fully consider the impact of changes in market conditions such as industry policies, important holidays, population mobility, economic development and consumption level on the cigarette market, so that the forecast can reflect the trend factors and seasonal factors, and scientifically predict the real needs of cigarette retail customers. Third, skillfully use market forecasting software to establish an empirical and quantitative regional market research system. Account managers should skillfully use the "marketing comprehensive analysis management system" software to make demand prediction and analysis from three aspects: customers, brands and markets.