From the big background, the meeting mentioned that China's economic development faces triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and expected weakening. The meeting called for steady progress in economic work next year. All localities and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro-economy, and all aspects should actively introduce policies conducive to economic stability, and the policy intensity should be appropriately advanced.
Regarding the adjustment of the real estate market next year, the meeting proposed that we should adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, strengthen the guidance of expectations, explore new development models, adhere to both rent and purchase, accelerate the development of the long-term rental market, promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies.
Adhere to the tone of "housing and not speculating"
In this meeting, it was once again emphasized that "the house is for living, not for speculation". This is the fourth consecutive year that the Central Economic Work Conference made it clear that "houses should not be used for speculation".
Li, chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, said that emphasizing "staying in a house without speculation" is a top-level design and a long-term guide to real estate and housing work, and will not be adjusted because of the temporary downturn of the industry and local risk exposure. This strategic force is unshakable. The strategic strength remains unchanged. Adjusting the strategy in the short term will have a bottom line and persistence, and there will be no confusion.
"The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China didn't mention' housing without speculation' before. In fact, the positioning of' housing and not speculating' will not change. In other words, no matter how to support the just-needed and improved housing demand, there is no support and market for real estate speculation and investment speculation. Therefore, when understanding the policy in subsequent places, even if the policy can be relaxed, we must strictly hold this red line. " Yan Yuejin said.
Give the expected guidance first and explore new development models.
The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to strengthen the expected guidance and explore new development models.
Yan Yuejin believes that the concept of "expected guidance" was put forward for the first time at this meeting, which indicates that there will be new actions in expected management and guidance at present.
The report of the Central Reference Institute mentioned that the expectations of many market participants such as property buyers, development enterprises and financial institutions are unstable. Guiding the market expectations of all parties is conducive to the normal release of reasonable housing demand and the steady progress of housing construction and urban development, and the importance of "stabilizing expectations" is more prominent.
It can also be seen from "Exploring New Development Mode" that after more than 20 years of rapid development, the per capita housing area of urban residents in China has reached about 40 square meters, and the incremental market scale has peaked. The past development model of "high leverage and high turnover" of housing enterprises needs to be changed urgently, and the model of rapid development and rapid expansion of enterprises through high leverage and high debt is coming to an end. The industry is changing from incremental development to the era of stock operation, and enterprises also need to follow the trend and expand new ones. At the same time, for local governments, the "land finance" model driven by rising house prices and land prices in the past also needs to be changed urgently.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of RealData, believes that "exploring new development models" will promote the transformation of the development model of housing enterprises. At present, the development mode of high turnover and high leverage formed by China's real estate enterprises in the long-term development is unsustainable. Some enterprises are in debt crisis, so it is necessary to adopt a combination of unblocking and blocking to speed up the transformation and upgrading of housing enterprises and prevent and resolve real estate financial risks from the development mode. Real estate development enterprises should explore new development models, combine social development trends, the evolution law of housing demand and their own advantages, and participate in leasing business, community pension, renovation of old communities, property management services and other fields to achieve diversified transformation. This is an inevitable choice to prevent and resolve the development risks of the real estate industry, and it is also the only way for the real estate industry to achieve sustainable development.
Reasonable housing needs are supported.
The Central Economic Work Conference made it clear to support the commercial housing market and better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers.
The Central People's Hospital believes that "supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers" is consistent with the proposal of the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting on February 6, 65438. It is expected that the credit policy will continue to expand the support for the first set of improved housing demand.
Yan Yuejin also believes that this policy is consistent with the spirit of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China. "Supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers" will be written, and there should be some changes in the follow-up. First, reasonable housing demand includes just-needed and improved demand, and subsequent land, credit and tax will be guaranteed. Second, reasonable housing demand, including both rent and purchase, will face encouragement and support.
Promoting the virtuous circle of real estate industry by implementing policies in the city
The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to the city's policy. The the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting held on February 6th this year put forward the idea of "promoting the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate industry".
According to the Central Economic Work Conference, "Promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry by taking measures based on the city" is slightly different from the formulation of the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Conference. First, it emphasizes "policy by city". At present, the market performance of each city is different. The problems faced by real estate-related chains are different. Taking targeted measures because of the city's policy is more conducive to accelerating the virtuous circle of the real estate industry in various cities; Second, the order of "virtuous circle" and "healthy development" of the real estate industry will change, and the real estate industry will develop better and healthier after the virtuous circle. At present, for the government, it is most important to get through the circulation of all chains in the real estate industry. Under the policy of the city, the funds and policies will strive to promote the real estate industry to achieve a virtuous circle.
Xu Xiaole believes that the "virtuous circle" of real estate needs two necessary foundations. One is to control the thunderstorm risk of housing enterprises and prevent the risk of local enterprises from being transmitted to the system. Second, the real estate market should operate. In the second half of this year, the market is in a state of near stagnation, mainly due to the chain cooling of second-hand houses to new houses and then to the land market. The difficulty in the circulation of second-hand houses has blocked the chain of selling old houses and buying new ones, and the transaction blockage has accelerated the deterioration of the payment of housing enterprises. Due debts cannot be rolled, and the whole real estate chain cannot operate normally. The fundamental reason is that leverage reduction is too fast in the second half of the year, and a number of financial policies are tightened at the same time. The superposition of policy effects leads to the rapid tightening of the financing environment of housing enterprises and the credit environment of buyers.
Xu Xiaole pointed out that in the future, under the guidance of the "virtuous circle" of real estate, the financial policy that was too tight in the early stage will be structurally adjusted. On the one hand, moderately relax the control over the financing of housing enterprises, rationally allocate real estate development loans and M&A loans, and ease the debt pressure of housing enterprises; On the other hand, the housing credit environment has improved, focusing on meeting the mortgage demand of the first suite and improved housing. Under the premise of "housing without speculation", there may be targeted support policies for the just-needed and improved housing demand in the future. It is estimated that the real estate market will be gradually repaired in 2022, and there will be no hard landing, and it will continue to play the role of "stabilizer" for economic operation.
Once again, it is proposed to accelerate the development of long-term rental housing.
At the Central Economic Work Conference, it was proposed to adhere to both rent and purchase, accelerate the development of the long-term rental market, and promote the construction of affordable housing. In last year's meeting, more emphasis was placed on "standardizing the development of the long-term rental market".
Li pointed out that our long-term rental housing is also a long-term rental apartment. Since the thunderstorm occurred in the long-term rental apartment market last year, the state has placed more emphasis on affordable rental housing, while long-term rental housing has been less emphasized. In fact, long-term rental housing and affordable rental housing are part of the multi-level rental market, meeting different types of rental needs. Therefore, on the basis of summarizing the problem of long-term rental apartments, as the source of multi-channel housing supply in the future, we should strengthen supervision and construction mode and guide the transformation and upgrading of the development industry.
Xu Xiaole believes that in the future, more market efficiency will be exerted to solve the diversified and quality leasing needs of tenants in big cities. With the improvement of urbanization rate, the demand for housing rental market in big cities is strong, and the time for tenants to stay in the rental market is prolonged. According to the data of Shell Platform, the average age of buying a house in 202 1 is 36-38 years old, which is 2-3 years later than that in 20 18. Many tenants have been renting for more than 10 years, and the demand for family rental has gradually emerged. China's housing rental system is mainly composed of market-oriented rental housing, affordable rental housing and public rental housing. Relying on the efficiency of marketization can effectively solve the diversified needs of rental groups.
In its view, institutionalization is a necessary way and an important carrier to improve the professional service in the leasing market. However, due to the narrow profit margin of the leasing industry, leasing enterprises are faced with the problems of high cost, narrow financing and difficult compliance, resulting in the overall rental institutionalization rate of less than 5% in the country and less than 15% in first-tier cities. It is expected that next year, land, finance, taxation and other support policies for the long-term rental market will be introduced, and housing rental enterprises will get a good policy support environment in the future.
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