It is better to live in a hotel than to buy a house if the rent exceeds the monthly payment.
A few years ago, two brothers came to Shanghai. My brother bought a house with a loan of 1 10,000, with a monthly payment of 4,800 yuan for 30 years. My younger brother is smart and thinks that buying a house is not cost-effective, because at that time, the monthly rent was only about 2,000 yuan, and an extra 654.38+0,000 yuan can be rented for at least 50 years. But now, a few years later, the younger brother who didn't buy a house began to panic, because after several rounds of rent increases, he had to pay at least 7,000 yuan a month, which exceeded his brother's monthly contribution of more than 4,000 yuan.
This is the story mentioned in a recent article that sparked heated discussion. In fact, such examples are very common in first-tier cities. Ms. Z, an employee of a joint-stock bank in Guangzhou, bought a commercial house of 270,000 yuan around 2002. After paying the down payment and tax, she got a loan of 200,000 yuan, which will be paid off in 20 years, with a monthly payment of about 1.200 yuan. At present, Miss Z has changed the city where she works. This house in Guangzhou is for rent, and the monthly rent is about 3,600 yuan, which is about three times the monthly rent.
The dispute between rent and monthly payment is a version of people's tangled psychology under high housing prices. With the soaring housing prices in first-tier cities and second-tier key cities since April 20 15, a version that buying a house is not as good as staying in a hotel has also been derived:
"Now some hotels bought online, one night in 250 yuan. If you buy a house of 100 square meter, 8 million yuan is enough for you to live for 32,000 days, which is almost 88 years. You can live in any district and floor you want. You can live any life you want. There is no property fee, no parking space, no handbag decoration, no agency fee, no broadband fee for utilities, no cleaning and quilt folding ... "
The above is just the entanglement and consideration of ordinary citizens on real estate. Some investors, ten years ago or earlier, bought multiple suites or dozens of suites for investment purposes, and now they have become rich easily. For most people, they are faced with the dilemma of buying or renting a house. After all, few people really plan to stay in an 88-year hotel.
With the rapid development of housing prices, rents have also risen. In August this year, the "Report on the Rental Market in the First Half of 20 16" released by 58 cities showed that the total demand for rental housing in the country increased in the first half of the year, with an obvious increase in the first and second quarters. Among them, the demand for renting houses in March was strong. In terms of rent, the rents in Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen all exceed 4,000 yuan/month, with Shanghai becoming the most expensive city in China with 5 133.9438+0 yuan/month. No wonder many people exclaim that living in first-tier cities not only can't afford to buy a house, "renting a house will still become a normal state in first-tier cities"!
The rental rate of return is low, and the rental-sales ratio is low, which is not suitable for the national conditions of China.
"The rent in the next few years will not stay at a low level. For many houses on sale now, after five or even ten years, it is a high probability event that the rent exceeds the monthly supply. " This is the conclusion of the above hot article.
In first-tier cities, it is normal for the rent to be higher than the monthly payment if a house is bought with a loan five or ten years ago. Then, after several rounds of high housing prices, can borrowing money to buy a house really make the rent exceed the monthly payment?
The above article points out that the rental return rate of the real estate market is generally only 1%~2%. It can be seen that the low overall rental return rate is a recognized phenomenon. Take a mid-range residential area in Futian, Shenzhen as an example. At present, a set of 90 square meters of three rooms and two halls costs about 6 million yuan, and the monthly rent is about 7,200 yuan. Ignoring the management fee, the calculated rental return rate is about 65,438+0.5%.
Ren Zeping, an economist at Founder Securities, published a report at the end of September, "What is the risk of a real estate bubble in China? In its view, the static rental return rate of major cities in China is 2.6%, and that of first-tier cities is around 2%, which is lower than that of second-and third-tier cities. According to the international static leasing rate of return of 4%~6%, the level of China is far below the international level. However, he also pointed out: "China's real estate is not a simple residential function, but a comprehensive value body tied with many resources such as household registration, school districts and hospitals. China people have a sense of belonging to their houses and homes, and their housing ownership rate is relatively high internationally. "
There is also an indicator of rent and house price, that is, the "rental-to-sale ratio", which refers to the ratio of monthly rent per square meter of usable area to house price per square meter of construction area, and is used to measure the real estate investment potential of a certain area. According to international standards, the reasonable rental-sales ratio is between 1:300 and 1:200. At present, the rental-sales ratio of first-tier cities and second-tier key cities is above 1:400. Although many experts think that the rental-to-sale ratio is not suitable for China's national conditions, this ratio also shows the gap between rent and house price.
For Mr. S who rents a house in Futian, the pressure of rising rent is very obvious. In 20 12, the rent of a three-bedroom apartment of about 90 square meters was about 4,000 yuan, and now it has risen to 7,500 yuan. It is understood that due to the rapid increase in rents, some landlords divide their houses into small units and rent them to single young people, which is different from the fact that the community mainly rents them to families. Xiao M, who lives in an old residential area in Tianhe District, Guangzhou, used to rent two rooms and one living room for more than 2,000 yuan, but now the whole set of rent has risen to more than 4,000 yuan. In order to reduce the living expenses, he can only share with others.
According to a survey of a magazine, 34.9% people think that more people rent houses, and the rental return of houses will be higher, but it will stimulate more investors to enter and house prices will rise faster. Security, fear of rising house prices and painful rental experience have become the three main reasons for buying a house.
There is also a view that rent can better reflect the average demand of the market than house price because of the high commodity and low investment in the leasing market. Ren Zeping agrees that there is a huge wealth gap between renters in big cities, so in a society where the rich buy houses and the poor rent houses, the rent that renters can afford is very limited. Therefore, once the rent rises a little, the demand will fall back quickly, which may be the fundamental reason why the rent increase is not as good as the house price.
Housing slaves have contributed to new loans, and the high growth of mortgage loans has hidden concerns.
In the reality of rising house prices and rents, many people, whether they have a house or no house, whether they are bullish on real estate or bearish on real estate, have gradually lost their rationality and joined the ranks of buying houses. In order to get the qualification to buy more houses, many families even divorce on fake leave. In this way, the house slaves have made many achievements in the new loans of major banks this year.
According to the data of June 65438+1October 18 released by the central bank, in September this year, RMB loans increased by10.22 trillion yuan, an increase of164.3 billion yuan year-on-year and an increase of 2.71300 million yuan month-on-month. Judging from the structure of new loans, in the first nine months of this year, the increase of medium and long-term loans in the household sector represented by individual housing loans was still high. Ruan, director of the survey and statistics department of the central bank, said that in the first nine months, personal housing loans increased by 3.63 trillion yuan, an increase of10.8 trillion yuan year-on-year, and the increase in personal housing loans accounted for 35.7% of the total loan increase. Among them, personal housing loans increased by 475.9 billion yuan in September, an increase of 205.5 billion yuan year-on-year, accounting for 39% of new RMB loans. It can be seen that house slaves have become the main contributor to new loans this year.
What is amazing is the data in July this year. In the financial data of July, RMB loans increased by 463.6 billion yuan, 654.38+0.0 1 trillion yuan less than the same period of last year. By sector, household loans increased by 457.5 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 654.38+09.7 billion yuan and medium-and long-term loans increased by 477.3 billion yuan. This shows that the scale of medium and long-term loans for new residents in that month even exceeded the total scale of new credit in RMB, which means that almost all new loans in July were household loans, especially personal housing loans.
Among them, Shenzhen is leveraged in first-tier cities. According to the data of Shenzhen Central Sub-branch of the People's Bank of China, in the whole year of 20 15, personal housing loans increased by 340.8 billion yuan, an increase of 2. 1 times. Moreover, the average loan-to-value ratio in Shenzhen is relatively high, reaching 65% in February of 20 15, which is much higher than the three cities of "Northern Guangzhou", 3.2 percentage points higher than the same period of last year, and only 5 percentage points lower than the 70% mortgage ceiling. It can be said that the loan leverage is very good.
Some experts warn that it is a dangerous game for residents to increase leverage. The high growth of mainland mortgage is unsustainable, the marginal leverage is close to the limit, and the real estate bubble is worthy of vigilance. So, is this really the case?
Citic China Construction Investment Co., Ltd. said that although there is still room for China residents to increase leverage, they need to be alert to the short-term rapid increase in leverage. From 2004 to 20 15, the average compound annual growth rate of China's residents' leverage ratio was 8%, and the leverage ratio rose from 18% to 40%. The average annual growth rate of leverage in the United States is 6%. As for the leverage ratio of house purchase, the transaction leverage ratio and the average loan ratio in the first half of 20 16 are all around 65%, while the average loan ratio in Beijing in the first half of 20 1% is the same as that in Hong Kong at present, and the loan ratio in Shanghai is around 55%, which is close to that in new york in recent years. Judging from the proportion of mortgage burden, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen are already in the forefront of the world. In the first half of 20 16, the mortgage burden rates were 76%, 7 1% and 122% respectively (calculated according to the overall average price of a second-hand house), which exceeded new york, San Francisco, London and other international cities.
However, Hongliang, an economist at CICC, believes that the rapid growth of mortgage loans may be mainly driven by the increase in demand for housing, rather than a single lever. Compared with internationally comparable indicators, China's current mortgage leverage and affordability are not beyond a reasonable range. But at the same time, it is pointed out that the current 3 1% mortgage stock growth is indeed higher than the long-term sustainable level, and there are some hidden concerns.
(The above answers were published on 2016-11-28. Please refer to the actual purchase policy. )
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