In the past ten years, many friends around me have asked me if I want to buy a house and how to buy it. Some of these friends have already achieved assets of tens of millions. Of course, some people are still hesitant to buy a house until now, asking all day: Is this year suitable for buying a house? The price is already very high now.
It can be seen that many people have various entanglements in the process of buying a house. From concept to action, and then to the understanding of policies and interest rates, I found that everyone's misunderstanding is very close. Today, I made a summary for your reference and let you correct your misunderstanding.
Content guide:
1. I can't see the truth of the property market.
2. Lack of funds but pursuit of perfection
3. cling to the past price and ignore the long-term value.
4. tangled interest rates and fear of loans
5. Summary and prospect
0 1
Can't see the truth of the property market
Speaking of real estate, most people think that real estate is the opposite of the real economy, and developing real estate will destroy the real economy.
Once a rural man came to the city, he wondered: we farmers and workers work in farmland and factories, and we are the real economy. What value can you white-collar workers create by hiding in the office and typing?
In fact, serious economics has no distinction between real economy and virtual economy, because everyone is a link in the industrial chain. Farmers will never understand that it is people in the office who design fertilizer advertisements, upload agricultural products information to Tmall, or review farmers' loan conditions, thus ensuring the development of the whole industry.
Tangible products not only create value, but also provide information, capital and technology. Is the Internet a Virtual Economy? Imagine that if there were no Tmall, the information of buyers and sellers would be matched by live media, and how many farmers' melons and fruits would rot in the ground because of unsalable sales. It is precisely because of the Internet, a platform for information matching, that Xinjiang's melons and fruits and Yiwu's small commodities can be sold all over the world.
Is real estate a virtual economy? Hit the real economy? Imagine, if there were no real estate, China's industrial manufacturing industry would have been overcapacity. How do steel, cement, ceramic tile and home appliance industries survive? Are all these industries virtual? Thin people like to divide the economy into two parts, one is the virtual economy and the other is the real economy. In fact, there is no difference between virtual economy and real economy.
Someone once said: please ask the government to seriously develop the real economy and not engage in such empty things as finance. In fact, they didn't think that if it weren't for finance, the enterprise would have closed down because it couldn't get the loan. Even if the reform and opening up is carried out through the introduction of capital, even if the technical conveniences such as WeChat and Tmall shopping we use are created by capitalists.
Back to real estate, ordinary people think that high-level people hate real estate. In fact, after the epidemic, cities are desperately selling land, and the price of local auctions has hit record highs, so we know that real estate is a good thing to make money. Who doesn't like making money
Since the beginning of this year, the total land market turnover of 50 big cities in China has reached10.6 trillion yuan, up12% year-on-year; The income from land transfer in 27 cities exceeded 20 billion yuan, and that in 49 cities exceeded10 billion yuan, all of which reached record highs. Developers see the trend of market prospects earlier than we do. /kloc-within 0/80 days, the property market in China will definitely rise one after another.
So will the development of real estate squeeze the living space of enterprises? Many people say that Shenzhen's housing prices are expensive, so Huawei moved away. In fact, the land in any city is the pursuit of efficiency. There was a piece of land in the suburbs that used to grow vegetables, and then the factory came. Obviously, the land used to run factories is more rewarding than growing vegetables, and farmers have to move out. After several years of development, this factory is out of date. Obviously, it is more advantageous to move the factory as a financial and technological research and development center. It is not real estate that squeezes out enterprises, but the industrial upgrading of a city to eliminate backward industries. Huawei moved its manufacturing plant out of Shenzhen, but its research and development remained in Shenzhen. This is the maximization of urban land value, not some real estate evils.
Now the land in Shenzhen should be used to develop high-end service industry, otherwise it is a waste of resources. As you can imagine, if Shenzhen does not use this land for financial and modern services now, the most central places in the city are some shoe factories, toy factories and mold factories. Does this city have a future? It's not that real estate crowd out enterprises, but that this backward industry is no longer needed in this city. Its industry has been upgraded, and its land has been given to more efficient financial and modern service industries.
Similarly, in other first-and second-tier cities in China, some core areas should also be regarded as the CBD of this city to maximize the use of land.
Enterprises are like this, and so are people. Generally speaking, the high housing prices in domestic first-and second-tier cities will crowd out talents, which is not conducive to long-term development. In fact, they don't know that it is precisely because of talent gathering that the housing prices in first-and second-tier cities are expensive, otherwise the housing prices in rural areas will be low enough. Why didn't anyone go?
If the cause and effect are reversed, the conclusion will be completely different. Shallow people always see superficial phenomena and know nothing about the truth behind them.
There is a person on the internet who always thinks that the world will change in a direction that is beneficial to him.
Without a diploma, he will argue that reading is useless.
Without a wife, he will argue that being single is very happy.
If he can't make money, he will argue that life doesn't need to pursue so many desires, and he will be happy if he is poor.
Without a house, he will argue that house prices will fall.
Who is he? He is the biggest loser in the world. Because he rationalized all his failures and everything was a social problem, he never wanted to change himself.
Sometimes I sigh that there is no distinction between true and false, because most people only know the world from their own perspective. When you tell him the truth, it is equivalent to crushing his original cognition and causing his anger.
Just like a person saying that high housing prices are a social problem, it is not that housing prices are expensive, but that he is too poor to afford them. But if you say he is poor, he will be angry. Is it difficult for key universities to take exams because the admission scores are too high and full of bubbles? No, it's that scum whose score is too low to reach.
Are the housing prices in Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Chengdu expensive? It is not expensive at all. As long as the new station has the opportunity to make money, tens of thousands of people will participate in the lucky draw, and many people can afford it! Purchasing power shows no signs of drying up.
02
Lack of funds but pursuit of perfection
Before Shenzhen rose sharply last year, I advised my friends and members around me to buy it as early as possible, otherwise I would miss the market and hurt my heart. I vaguely remember a reader consulting me. At that time, he asked, "This house is ten years old and a little old. Will it go up after I buy it for a few years? "
To tell the truth, I don't want to give him advice, because he is a very delicate and tangled person. I answered directly at that time: Do you want to live in a new house? Add money.
There is a kind of person who always wants everything to be perfect when buying a house, either because the floor is low, because the building is old, or because the apartment is opaque. In short, he will buy it if there is nothing wrong with it. This kind of person has only one ending: missing the market.
Perfect house, the price also needs to be perfect, this kind of house will be very expensive to fly, because the price is too high, but it will rise slowly in the later period, and the income is limited.
In fact, the investment in buying a house is not perfect, but it is cost-effective.
When the price of a suite is right, buy it boldly. There is no room that is not worth buying, only the price that is not worth buying. Having said that, I have to say that I usually use buying a house as a decision-making model. Do you know how to arrange the weights of several factors that affect a person's income from buying a house?
Time > location > products
It's time. The garbage has gone up. You can think about the past ten years. Whenever a city's prosperous year comes, let alone new houses and second-time new houses, even shabby rags go to heaven. Why? Because the second new house has risen from 20,000 to 40,000, it is impossible to maintain 6,000 yuan for the old and shabby house next to it, and it will definitely double, and always maintain a reasonable price difference with the second new house. In fact, if you look at 70,000 or 80,000 dangerous houses in Shanghai and Shenzhen, you will know that they have been following the trend for more than ten years.
Remember, as long as the time is right, the rotten goods will fly. Of course, I am not encouraging people to buy old and shabby houses, because this variety is not the choice of novices. Buying an old and shabby house needs expert guidance, so that you can buy a good property.
Every time I buy a house, I tell myself: as long as the time and place are right, I don't have to care too much about the defects in the product. Does it matter whether the building is old or not? Does it matter if the apartment is opaque? Of course, if you subtract 2 points from these, but the timing is right and the location is good, you can add 10 points. If the two are balanced, the total score is 8 points, and you will eventually earn it.
In the past ten years, I also bought many defective houses, such as the wrong apartment, facing the street, or low floors. I remember I used to have a suite in Guangzhou. The normal floor sells for 25,000 yuan per square meter, but a low floor actually sells for 1.9 million. I asked my friend to buy it, but he didn't like it. Later, I bought it myself, and then it doubled. The normal floor rose to 49 thousand, and mine rose to 40 thousand, earning the same.
Once again, the time and place are right. As long as the house is not seriously damaged, even if there is a little flaw, it is still worth buying. This is actually a bit like marriage. Can't ugly girls? No, as long as people are right, marriage is just as happy.
So did my readers buy Shenzhen last year? He didn't listen to the advice and was still struggling, but the house price has risen by 30%. He is not qualified to be picky because the down payment is not enough, and now he wants to stab his thigh with a knife.
03
Clinging to the past price, ignoring the long-term value.
A friend often asks me: Is such a plate still worth buying? The price is very high now. For example, Nanshan in Shenzhen, Hongqiao or Pudong in Shanghai, or the restricted area in Chengdu.
In fact, whether a plate is worth buying is not how much it has risen in the past, but whether it will rise in the future. If there is still rising potential in the future, then the current price is low and there is always a premium for high-quality assets. The stocks of Tencent and Maotai are so expensive that it does not affect their continued rise.
I don't care much about the current house price, but prefer to look at the rising potential. I once shared this experience with others: you dare not buy a plate that has not increased much in the past, but you think it has not increased much in the past. What else do you buy?
For myself, I just need a certainty, probability and odds. I'd rather have a probability and make sure I can make money, even if the probability is very low and I don't earn much. So I will like those sectors that have gone up very much, because their value has been verified by the market, and I just need to follow the market direction to make money. From the perspective of investment philosophy, more people will find the value of high-quality assets in the future, and their prices will be affected by power law functions, which will be too high for most people to afford.
Investing in the unpopular plate against the market direction has two results: crit and blasting. That is, either you bet correctly and make a fortune, or you are taught by the market and lose money.
We say that choosing market timing is against human nature. When others are afraid, you dare to enter the market, but when choosing investment projects, you should obey human nature. Buffett said that he would rather buy a good company stock at a relatively expensive price than buy a bad company stock on a cheap basis.
Back to the property market, buying a house needs to buy a plate with rising potential. Even if the price is not cheap, it is worth starting, because there is a future.
04
Obsessed with interest rates and fear of loans
A reader in Chengdu recently told me that she once regretted buying a house. Recalling her feelings of buying a house in 20 16, when she signed her name, she was not happy, but sad and felt that her future was bleak. On the way back, she almost cried in the car. She felt that her life was over, she had a mortgage for 30 years and was not married.
Looking back now, she thinks that if her mother hadn't decided to buy it on the phone at that time, she would have been unable to climb at the current house price. And because she bought a house, her job was fairly stable. Later, the boys who pursued her had good conditions and got married the next year. Because she has her own house, marriage is equal and there is no need to feel inferior. The relationship has always been very harmonious.
I have talked a lot about loans and interest rates in the past, just like the above example, that is, the rise in house prices is far more than the interest you pay. Buying a house with a loan is equivalent to partnering with a bank to seize urban resources. As long as it is bank money, you can take it with an annual interest rate of less than 8%.
People always say: you should pay back the money you borrowed from the bank! They talk as if they don't have to pay back the money they borrowed from their friends. In fact, no matter who you borrow money from, as long as your investment income can cover the interest cost, it is worthwhile.
So can buying a house achieve this goal? Take equal principal and interest as an example. The 30-year real estate loan is 6.5438+0 million, and you have to pay back the bank 2 million with interest. Is this interest cost high? Can't you double the house you bought in 30 years? Don't say 30 years, short is three to five years, long is doubled in five or seven years.
What should a qualified wool party do in the face of the national banknote printing law (wealth transfer)?
Loan to buy a house! Try to borrow large, low-interest and long-term funds and buy more assets!
Because wealth is transferred (robbed) by people without assets, paper money is bound to be diluted. It's just that there is a little difference in time and cycle length in different periods, which is nothing more than the difference between two years earlier and two years later. Therefore, buying a house by loan is a financial privilege, so the state stipulates that anyone can only have two sets of mortgages at the same time, and the third set will stop lending, and the wool will not be much.
As a result, many games were born later, such as concurrent loans, 30% down payment and two sets at the same time; Relay loan, 30% down payment in the name of parents, and monthly payment for children; Commercial loan, buy a house across the bridge and then mortgage the commercial loan in full, and the qualification of 30% down payment is not limited …
The poorer you are, the more afraid you are of using leverage, and the poorer you are. This is the cycle of poverty, and the bondage of ideas is the biggest limitation of life development.
05
Summary and prospect
As for how to make money, Tai Shigong wrote clearly in the biography of Huo Zhi with the word 12: "Without money, you are clever, which is a great lesson."
These three sentences tell us what we should do at every stage of life. The first stage of "no money to do anything" is that when you have nothing, you need to sell your strength to make money and accumulate capital. In this process, increasing income and saving money are the most important.
Why is investment and financial management not the most important thing at this time? Because you have no capital accumulation, that is, "no money", it is not worthwhile to spend too much energy on investment and financial management when you have no money. It is problematic to spend a lot of energy on financial management when there is not much money in your pocket. The most cost-effective thing at this time is to find a well-paid job. When you have flowing water and accumulated the first bucket of gold, you can enter the second stage.
In the second stage, the focus of "small battle of wits" is "small", which is the premise of "small battle of wits".
In my twenties, I need to work hard to make money and accumulate funds and resources. In his thirties, he entered the stage of making money with his mind. You have a certain amount of savings, and your income is relatively stable. At this time, you can't just make money by selling time and physical strength.
We should use the accumulated resources to continue to find ways to increase income and expand the source of cash flow, and also learn to incite assets with the money saved before. At this time, what we have to do is to allocate assets according to the cash flow on hand and increase the value of our money through asset expansion.
Try not to spend money on all kinds of useless conspicuous consumption when the asset package is not enlarged to a certain extent. When you have accumulated some assets and deposits, you can enter the third stage when you are almost 40 years old.
In the third stage, the focus of "grabbing time" is "grabbing time". "Rao" means that after years of hard work and accumulation, you already have a lot of capital and assets. "Race against time" has become the key factor for you to continue by going up one flight of stairs. At this time, you need to wait. What are you waiting for?
Waiting for the opportunity or cycle to come.
After buying an asset, all you need to do is wait. Looking back on our past years, the biggest asset income of most families is estimated to be real estate. Soaring is not common, but once or twice in life, it is enough to change fate.
Many people? They all say this is a good opportunity? how much is it? , one? Life is long. This sentence? Right? Yes, but? what's up Now? Real feelings? Besides, this sentence is often self-comforting. Use? Yes Because? People? The real chance of a lifetime? what's up A little? It's fleeting Just like playing Texas? Same? , one? Last night? Take? A pair? Good cards, two good cards? It's already hard. What if not? Can you catch it? Live broadcast? This one, two decks of cards? what's up What about you? This? Answer? Maybe at night? Rate? This is a loss.
Mainly? Count? People? Health, are they all related? Pass? One? Time? Opportunity, twice? Opportunities come true? Now? Fight back? And beyond? Yes Really? When the opportunity comes, if you catch it? No, your life? Generally, it is more sad. And this is ... Reality, what? Are you online? Really? Okay？ When playing cards? What about you? Must? Want it? what's up Put enough chips in? Are you sure? Heart? Go, go earn? Real meaning? Yida? Money.