Zeng: Even during the financial crisis, China's economic growth still exceeded 8%, which made the world pay more attention to China from media reports and financial investment, and everyone hoped to find future opportunities in it. How does the world view China, and how can China better understand how the outside world views us? Today, we invite Mr. Zhang Lifen, editor-in-chief of the Financial Times Chinese website, to talk with us. Hello, Li Fen.
Zhang Lifen: Hello, Yi Yun.
Zeng: I talked about people's interest in China. I remember one time, a top economist told me that, for example, they went to Europe and America for roadshows, and there were hundreds of meetings a week, large and small. No matter whether the audience under the stage was related to China's business or analysis, every one was full. Then, they all want to know the latest situation in China. After the financial crisis, China is even more magnificent. During your 10 and 20 years in Britain, do you really feel that western countries are becoming more and more interested in China and British people are becoming more and more friendly to China? what do you think?
Zhang Lifen (Editor-in-Chief of Financial Times Chinese Network): I think in the past 10 and 20 years, China should be a very distant existence. In 2002, it became a concept and now it has become a reality. So you just mentioned that China has become an indispensable factor in Europe and America, whether it is politics or business or any important occasion.
I think the key point is that when they talk about China, they are actually talking about themselves, their reality and their interests. Because China and their interests have been very, very subtly combined. I think whether it's China's CPI, China's PPI or China's GDP, it's hard to see any period in history when any country paid such attention to the details of another country's economy as China. Whether you are in Boao or Davos, I think the most important thing for China is that China has paid close attention to their own interests.
Zhang Lifen: China real estate is like a spoiled child.
Zeng Juyi: That's true, so we can see that, like FT Chinese website, you have been playing a very important role in the communication between the world and China. What people are most concerned about these days is why the real estate price in China has risen so fast. In your report, it is actually a very important part of analysis and discussion, so let's see why the housing prices in China have risen so much. From your analysis, from our interviews with economists, it is difficult for me to have * * * knowledge and tell you why. You see that housing prices in London, England used to be so high. What do you think of the housing prices in China? Can you tell me why?
Zhang Lifen: Yes, I have been in London for many years, but I think the real estate in China may be the same as many problems in China. Sometimes I want to break my head. All kinds of theories can't get the answer. For example, the stock market and housing market in London have at least gone up and down. We see that in the 1990s, the housing market in London once fell by 60%, but the problems in China may confuse people all over the world. There is a place in the world called China, and its housing market only goes up but not down. This may be general conventional economics, and our understanding of the market can't be answered.
I think this may be a very big problem for the China government and the people of China, so I think it's interesting to say that China may have passed. For example, you can lower housing prices by publishing an editorial in the People's Daily. Even in a sense, Premier Wen made it clear in the NPC report during the two sessions that some measures should be taken to curb housing prices in China, but two days later,
So I want to use slogans and purely literal policies to curb prices. This era has passed. So I think the real estate problem in China, in the past 10 years, is like a spoiled child. Parents don't know when to punish it and when to reward it. In the long run, children will not know what their parents are going to do and when. Hold the whip high and put it down slowly. If this happens many times, the market and the public have very low trust in the implementation and credibility of the policy. I think this may be a problem of the execution and credibility of a policy behind China real estate.
The problem of real estate, whether it is land finance or the greed of developers, boils down to the fact that most China people need a place to live. Second, China's land is state-owned. I think these are two basic points of the real estate problem in China, so I think this problem is not an economic problem, but a choice of public policies. It depends on whether the government really has the political determination and will to solve this problem. If this problem is not solved, nothing else will be possible.
Zeng Lianyi: We have seen a situation that when the state solves this problem, it will increase the land supply of housing, especially affordable housing, and the other is the transformation of shacks, which will provide more support to these low-and middle-income people. However, the reality is that the ratio of house price to the income of ordinary people in China is 20 times. I wonder how much London costs. Will London be so high?
Zhang Lifen: Yes, I think if it is the ratio of income to house price, I think China may have surpassed London and new york. For example, in the first quarter of London, it was an average house price statistic in the Greater London area, with a price of nearly 320,000 pounds. In contrast, if 1 pound is converted into 10 RMB, it will be nearly 3.2 million RMB.
If you visit real estate agents in big cities like Beijing and Shanghai, you may only be able to buy a very small apartment. Therefore, if China's income level and your house price are high, this situation is obviously difficult to continue. But the key point is that those who are pessimistic about the China stock market still haven't seen that day, saying that the China stock market will still operate according to a relatively basic and established market law. Why? I think there are many reasons, but the most important one is that if the government itself becomes a big interest group in this process, I think it is not only a game maker, but also a very active player on the court, both of which will bring a very big problem to China.
Zhang Lifen: It is expected that the mainstream of the United States believes that China manipulates the exchange rate.
Zeng: Among the changes that have taken place in China, I think it is more difficult for China to make choices and face challenges. From the government, enterprises and ordinary people, we need a direction, that is, the adjustment of RMB exchange rate. China and the United States have been arguing about this issue for some time. Although it eased later, it did taste like a strategic game between China and the United States. From this question, what changes have taken place in the relationship between China and the United States?
Zhang Lifen: I think this is a very interesting question, because first, I think both Washington and Beijing have a basic judgment, that is, the bilateral relationship between China and the United States is not only the most important relationship in global geopolitics at present, but also the overall relationship in the next 65,438+00,65,438+05 or even 50 years.
Of course, we can see that in the past 30 years, there have been more and more conflicts between China and the United States, whether because of interests, consciousness or many political ideas. Of course, due to the increasing degree of globalization in China, it is bound to the interests of the United States to a great extent, and some big problems are increasingly reflected in certain interests.
I think whether it's the US Congress, American academic circles, American policy research circles and think tanks, I think that China is manipulating the currency, and this opinion should still be the majority. We can see such a view of defending the China market against the media, but if we discuss this issue privately, they may still think that China is actually manipulating the currency.
If this problem is not solved, I think this problem will continue to appear in the next few years. One more question. I am not an economist, but an observer of China's economic problems. One of my views is that before the United States fundamentally changes its views on China's political system, government system and the United States and Britain, the conflict of interests between the two countries is inevitable.
I think there is a big background behind these problems, whether it is about RMB or China's huge foreign exchange reserves. Even American politics, American society and American Congress have many doubts and anxieties about China's political system and the political system behind him. I think this is very important.
Zhang Lifen: The United States may change the way it deals with China.
Zeng: We see that the West is really looking forward to and afraid of being hurt by China, so in this process, some comments will praise China in particular, and some criticisms will be particularly sharp, which seems to be not fully accepted by China people. Is this really the case in China? Please continue to invite Dr. Zhang Lifen, editor-in-chief of FT Chinese Network, to talk about how to treat the gap between China and the West and how the West views the real China.
Li Fen, in the last section, we talked about the dispute between China and the United States about the RMB exchange rate. I remember that after the President and Hu Jintao arrived in the United States, the headline of the newspaper the next day actually made it very clear that China would not change its policy under foreign pressure. In other words, for the United States, the question of RMB exchange rate seems to have no clear answer. How do you think that the United States has such expectations, and then, later, China made such a statement?
Zhang Lifen: I think the bilateral leaders of China and the United States have actually held several meetings on the RMB issue. Some are public, others exchange views with each other in closed meetings. I think it is very interesting that during President Hu Jintao's visit to the United States, American media, Congress and political circles seem to have an expectation, that is, China will use this occasion to release some information, which can meet the expectations of Congress, Washington and the public.
However, I think it has been more than 40 years since the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, but the United States may not quite understand one thing, that is, it may be a concession to ask a top leader of China to express his views on such a big issue abroad. I think this is not only China's political plan, but also because he doesn't know enough about the history of China after 1840.
So I think the United States has been dealing with China for five or six years, and it may be time to change the way it deals with China. That is to say, when China shows some signs of loosening, it is time to give China face and also time to give China face. Don't touch some major cultural and political projects in China too easily. It seems that the result may be better.
We can see that in the past four months, in fact, the holdings of US Treasury bonds have been decreasing, and they have been decreasing every month for four months. I think it may be from the market point of view that it has sent an obvious signal, that is, the expectation of RMB appreciation. Because many organizations, especially some large organizations closely related to China's interests, have begun to take back their money, expecting the stability to be loosened.
Tension: China's high-energy and high-labor processing mode is unsustainable.
Zeng: I remember a week after President Hu Jintao visited the United States, some media said, Oh, you should stop criticizing China. The more you criticize China's RMB exchange rate, the less it will rise. Give China a space. You should know China. Therefore, perhaps in this process, the West can really understand what kind of country China is, and what kind of political operation or expression China will be.
We can see that after the financial tsunami, many people are asking whether there is a so-called China model and China experience. Scholars from western countries or China once put forward the so-called China model. Some scholars from China said, yes, we have the China model, but some scholars from China are more sober, saying that we don't think there is the so-called China model. This needs to be seen clearly. So what do you think and how should you understand China's so-called economic development model in the process of western touting?
Zhang Lifen: Some things that are well sung may leave some bad things for China in the future 10 and 5 years, or sow some seeds of problems. So for example, in the past two or three years, there has been a lot of discussion about whether China's growth model can be sustained. So when we talk about the China model, I think this concept is very vague. Of course, the first level is relatively simple. We can talk about a pattern of economic growth in China.
At this point, I think each other, whether in the west or in China, whether in academia or politics, has almost * * * knowledge. It is believed that it is difficult for China to continue such a growth model with high energy consumption, high labor cost and mainly processing and export. Therefore, in this sense, almost everyone has said that its historical mission has been completed.
The second level, I think, is a relatively institutionalized problem. There used to be a saying in the China model that Beijing * * * is knowledgeable. Basically, it means whether the government can still maintain its very strong market and economic intervention mechanism during the transition from a more authoritarian society to a free economy. In this case, it may be able to produce high growth and high efficiency.
This may be because many western leaders, especially after the financial tsunami, are envious of China's leaders. They can interfere in the resources, economic resources and market of the whole society, and they can have such great freedom. But if we discuss China's so-called development model, we will start to take a completely negative attitude towards the whole basic market and the value of capitalism.
I think this problem may be such a situation that it is too early to obliterate the entire western economic system and a market system. So in my own opinion, it may be too early to discuss China's model.
In addition, there is a very important point. In the past 10 and 20 years, when it comes to the development of China, there is often a feeling and a practice. It seems that China's experience is so unique that other countries and cultures outside China can hardly cover it. In fact, I think this statement is one-sided. Whether we look at the economic rise of the Four Little Dragons after the 1970s, including Brazil in Latin America, there were six or seven years in the 1970s. The annual growth rate of such an economic miracle exceeds 65,438+00%. In fact, what China has experienced in the past 65,438+00 and 20 years is not unique to China. Can such high growth be sustained?
We can see that Brazil actually experienced a very, very low economic depression, especially in a period of very high inflation after the 1970s and the late 1980s. We may all question whether these situations will occur after China.
Zhang Lifen: Foreign guests often give them a good evaluation when they visit China, which is not necessarily objective.
Zeng Lianyi: So let's see if China should pay special attention to China when the west sees it. When the West unanimously criticizes China, China should not lose heart, which does not mean that China is totally bad. But when the West unanimously praises China, China can be cautious, which does not mean that China is really good.
Zhang Lifen: Yes, I think the final decision on this issue lies with China, that is, what China really wants to hear. Second, his views on these westerns. For example, when we read some newspapers in China, you can see that according to his editor's judgment, this newspaper knows exactly what China wants to hear. In fact, if we look at the western media carefully, we can see that the research on China in the west is varied and there are various opinions, but the key lies in which opinions and voices he finally heard and which eventually played some practical roles in the decision itself.
Besides, I find it interesting because I work in the international media. I found that the bosses and directors of foreign multinational enterprises, including important foreign politicians in the west, may feel that in some diplomatic occasions, they may often say something they particularly like to hear. I think this is also a courtesy call. However, if some comments on these wine tables are polite, do they really reflect their understanding and evaluation of the reality in China? I think sometimes there is a gap between them. So sometimes, no matter for China leaders, sometimes it is enough to listen.
Zeng: Indeed, many times the information is in front of you. First, did you see it? Second, did you listen? Thirdly, whether you decide to adopt it or not becomes a key part of your decision. I think for the Financial Times Chinese website, what are you going to do when there is so much global information? In the process of information change, how to play the role of communication with China and the world, and how to keep a more accurate and global vision?
Zhang Lifen: Yes, it's a difficult problem. In fact, whether we grew up in China or received education in China, when we look at the situation in China, we will find that China is a very difficult problem. To really understand the inside story of a China, the national conditions are actually great. Whether Shanghai is China or Beijing is China depends on how many China talents can form a relatively complete impression of China.
So I think a newspaper like the Financial Times, I think there are several points, it is more persistent. First, it is a newspaper that believes in globalization very much. It believes that the whole world, whether it is the operation of economy, the communication of resources, the communication of people and the exchange of ideas, may help the world overcome some obstacles traditionally brought about by the differences in geopolitics, culture, religion and political system. I think the gradual globalization of China in the past 30 years actually reflects one thing. China's interests are closely linked with external interests. First of all, we believe that globalization can overcome many things that people used to think could not be overcome.
Secondly, we think that China has a lot more information and information choices, but he will use it to judge the actual situation in China, whether it is a decision maker, a business person or a manager. We think the quality of information is uneven. Therefore, we dare not say that we can provide readers in China with an authoritative interpretation of ourselves. What we mean is that we can offer a choice.
This may be because we, whether our FT or FT Chinese website, are persistent in reporting on China, so sometimes, we judge some issues and understand some issues. Sometimes it doesn't sound like beautiful music, but I think China is a country with a growing trend of globalization.
I don't see any harm in listening to different voices. I think in the past 30 years, in fact, historically speaking, China has heard the most different voices, and I think it may also be the most stable period in China. Although there are problems, I think this may also be a source of confidence.