1. In the future, the industry pattern of Robotaxi will be "three points in the world"? 2. The iron triangle model may not be stable. Will there be a final battle between car companies, AI companies and travel platforms? 3. Is the autopilot AI company a joint venture with a car company or acquired by the latter, or will it become the norm in the second half of the year? 4. In the second half of autonomous driving, what is the fleet size, mass production capacity and profit model? As long as the operation scale of the fleet is expanding, safety officers will surely exist for a long time? 6.ToC will be profitable in the foreseeable future. Can the commercial realization of ToB/ToC go hand in hand? 7.Robotaxi is integrated into MaaS, and future travel tools can be upgraded to on-demand mobile services.
1) automatically drives the trillion-dollar market, and China's Robotaxi is the most imaginative.
Automatic driving has always been a hot topic, and all major consulting companies around the world are optimistic about the future development prospects of the field of automatic driving. Among them, Robotaxi travel service based on autonomous driving has attracted much attention.
McKinsey predicts that the global self-driving car sales and travel service market will exceed 500 billion US dollars in 2030; UBS Group AG Group AG predicts that the global self-driving taxi market will exceed 2 trillion US dollars in 2030; KPMG predicts that in 2030, self-driving cars and services will become industries worth more than 1 trillion dollars.
All consulting companies are optimistic about China, believing that China will be the largest self-driving travel service market in the world, and Robotaxi service in China has trillions of business imagination.
The commercial landing process of Robotaxi service in China has just begun.
On 20 19, 12, Wenyuan Zhixing took the lead in opening Robotaxi service in Guangzhou. On April 27, 2020, Gao De announced access to the AutoX driverless team; On June 27, 2020, Didi officially opened Robotaxi operation in Shanghai; 10 June 202010, Baidu Apollo? Go is fully launched in Beijing. ...
"Baidu Robotaxi Project" Apollo? Go
It is not enough to be open to the public. "Going to the security officer" has always been considered as the key link for Robotaxi to enter the commercial operation from the testing stage. Fortunately, in July, 2020, Wen Yuan Zhixing obtained the first remote test license for intelligent networked vehicles in China; In September 2020, Baidu Apollo obtained the first batch of intelligent networked vehicle driverless test licenses in Changsha, Hunan.
In 2020, it should be said that Robotaxi in China will be officially put into operation.
3) Three parts of the world: car companies, technology giants and start-ups.
The first category is traditional car companies or auto parts manufacturers, including GM, BMW, Audi, Toyota, Geely, Bosch and China. This kind of enterprise has strong capital operation and solid vehicle manufacturing capacity, and it is very likely that Robotaxi will become a self-developed and self-operated enterprise. In fact, in the future, there are far more than the above-mentioned ones that can provide Robotaxi travel services, but their running speed on the self-driving track is relatively faster and they will enter the sight of ordinary consumers faster. Putting the perspective into the longer-term future, the industry pattern in the field of Robotaxi will definitely show three trends in the world:
The second category is Internet technology giants, including Google, Baidu, Ali and Didi. The advantages of such enterprises are sufficient capital reserves, strong AI capabilities and rich business scenarios and operational experience.
The third category is start-up technology companies, including Wen Yuan Zhixing, Ma Xiao Zhixing and AutoX. The moats of such enterprises are mostly excellent AI teams and top-notch autonomous driving algorithms.
4) iron triangle mode: car companies, AI companies, and travel platforms.
The commercial landing of Robotaxi travel service mainly involves three major links: research and development of autonomous driving system, vehicle manufacturing and large-scale operation of unmanned fleet. If you want to be a leader in the field of Robotaxi, you must play multiple roles as a car company, an AI company and a travel platform. Because, the more roles, the greater the bargaining power of Robotaxi service market in the future.
Up to now, most enterprises only assume one or two roles. Among them, Ma Xiao Zhixing and AutoX only play a role in the research and development of autonomous driving system, and are temporarily unable to set foot in the two fields of vehicle manufacturing and travel platform.
Waymo, Baidu, Didi and Wen Yuan Zhixing can independently complete the research and development of autonomous driving system and fleet operation, but the mass production of autonomous vehicles is still handed over to the partners; Wen Yuan Zhixing set up a new company Wenyuan Yuexing to start cooperation, but the lack of car companies in the joint venture company caused its mass production capacity to temporarily encounter bottlenecks; Geely and Daimler can independently complete vehicle manufacturing and fleet operation, but they need to seek cooperation in the research and development of autonomous driving systems; Ford buys Argo? AI and GM can acquire Cruise, which enables them to develop autonomous driving systems and manufacture vehicles at the same time, but the two companies still lack in fleet operation.
"the role of Robotaxi enterprises at home and abroad"
Enterprises that can get through the above three links at the same time have not yet appeared. It can be predicted that in the R&D and exploration stage of Robotaxi, complementary advantages and win-win cooperation will remain the main tone in the short and medium term. But in the long run, with the gradual maturity of autonomous driving technology, two major problems, mass production cost and fleet management, will gradually surface. At that time, the iron triangle model is estimated to be difficult to stabilize, and there will be a fierce battle between car companies, AI companies and travel platforms.
5) Operation scale and efficiency: 100 vehicle fleet &; Dozens of cities &; High no-load
When it comes to the commercialization of Robotaxi, we can't escape the step of large-scale fleet operations. To this end, the author selects Baidu and Waymo, the two best companies at home and abroad, for intuitive comparison:
Baidu has built more than 500 self-driving fleets in seven years, covering 27 cities around the world, carrying more than 654.38+million passengers safely and driving test mileage exceeding 6 million kilometers.
Waymo, about 800 self-driving fleets will be built in 9 years, covering 25 cities around the world, with more than 654.38+million passengers safely and driving test mileage exceeding 20 million kilometers.
"Waymo self-driving taxi"
As the leader of Robotaxi in China and the United States, Baidu and Waymo are almost as good. However, after careful study, it is found that the current fleet size of Robotaxi is only 1,000 vehicles, and there are nearly 30 operating cities, which means that the fleet size of a single city is only a few dozen vehicles.
Look at its operating efficiency. As shown in the following table, taking Waymo as an example, the distance of picking up passengers and getting on the bus by bicycle is very close to the actual distance of bicycle farewell. In the actual operation process, in order to maximize the service income, we should try to reduce the total idling time of bicycles and the distance of picking up passengers by bicycles. On the contrary, we should try our best to expand the actual distance of sending passengers by bicycle. From this point of view, the current leader Waymo's fleet operation efficiency is so much.
It can be seen that based on the current fleet operation scale and efficiency, Robotaxi is still far from real commercialization ...?
6) Go to the security officer: A single 5G cloud driver supervises the safety of multiple vehicles.
Fortunately, companies like Waymo, Cruise, Baidu and Wen Yuan Zhixing have recently started to try to use security officials. In order to ensure safety, companies have set up a 5G cloud driver/remote takeover team. A takeover operator monitors the driving pictures of multiple vehicles in real time at the same time, and manually intervenes to take over vehicles when encountering difficulties in identification, such as temporary lane change or traffic control.
However, there is no need to be too happy. Because this is only a transitional plan, or "the dismissal of local security officers." It is reported that Waymo's completely unmanned fleet is limited to less than 500 square miles in Phoenix, and only testers who participated in the early Waymo program can get the right to use it. And CEO of Waymo? John? Krafcik claims that the security officer will be put back at the end of 2020, so that the team can expand its service scope.
It is foreseeable that with the expansion of the fleet size and operation area, the safety officer will still be placed in the main cab, but once the new operation scene is successfully learned by autonomous vehicles, the combination scheme of "multi-vehicle+single 5G cloud driver" will replace the current scheme of "single vehicle+single safety officer", and the labor cost of the safety officer will be gradually reduced.
Of course, "overall security officer" is still a long-term dream.
7) Current profit model: ToC, ToB and ToG go hand in hand.
How does Robotaxi Travel Service Company make a profit? To answer this question, we need to look back and see what role this company is taking (AI company, car company, travel platform).
ToC: Travel platform directly provides daily travel services for urban residents. Therefore, consumer-oriented tourism service charges must be the direct source of income for enterprises. Waymo started the charging test at the end of 20 18, but at present, domestic policies do not allow commercial charging, and the cost of security officers is still difficult to remove. Compared with online car rental, Waymo has no advantage, so this profit model is difficult to achieve in the short term.
Tob: AI company can package and supply on-board chips, sensor devices, on-board operating systems, car networking applications and autonomous driving algorithms to car companies that are developing L2-L3 level assisted intelligent driving, or jointly realize mass production of pre-installed cars with car companies and sell them to travel platform companies for commercial operation. For example, Waymo announced in March 20 19 that it would sell its self-developed product, Honeycomb Lidar.
ToG: Car companies and AI companies * * * can apply for new infrastructure projects such as car networking, autonomous driving, car-road coordination and digitalization from provincial and municipal governments all over the country, most of which are tens of millions of yuan. For example, Baidu Apollo has prepared or landed related projects in more than ten cities including Beijing, Xiong 'an, Cangzhou, Baoding, Yangquan, Changsha, Hefei, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Yinchuan.
In the future, if a Robotaxi enterprise can assume the above three roles at the same time, its main business will be able to cover the sales of software and hardware related to autonomous driving, the manufacture and sales of self-driving production vehicles, the sales of Robotaxi travel services and the construction of digital infrastructure projects of the new government.
But looking around the world, there are only three companies that mass-produce self-driving cars and a few models, 1. Hongqi E-HS3 self-driving SUV was jointly built by Baidu and FAW; 2.Pacifica and jaguar I-pace are made up of 2. Waymo3 with FCA and Jaguar Land Rover. Chevrolet Bolt with general cruise.
"Universal Cruise Autopilot"
When the cost and technology of self-driving production cars really land, there will be a fierce battle between AI companies, car companies and travel platforms. By then, Robotaxi will be fully commercialized and become a unicorn in the field of travel. The author believes that the combination of AI company and car companies (joint venture or acquisition) will definitely be the ultimate form.
8) Imagine a new profit model in the future: mobile as a service.
It should be pointed out that Robotaxi can never be defined as a taxi to solve the "travel" needs of users. It is more like an on-demand "mobile" solution, that is, Robotaxi can solve any "mobile" demand based on LBS around the user's "food, clothing, housing and transportation". Based on this, a new profit model can naturally be born. For example, the demand for take-away, express delivery and delivery in the same city has given birth to unmanned delivery services.
In the future combat of Robotaxi fleet, by further extending ODD (combat? Design? Domain) concept is understandable, and scenario design thinking will be able to add more ways of realizing business for enterprises. Perhaps consumers' shopping, film and television entertainment, hotel accommodation and other needs can be realized through customized Robotaxi. Mobile hotels, mobile wardrobes, mobile cinemas and mobile offices are all new profit models that can be explored in the future large-scale landing operation of Robotaxi fleet.
I believe that the future must be a highly decentralized business world. Everything can move in odd areas around the user's needs of "food, clothing, housing, entertainment", and the ultimate carrier of all this imagination space is Robotaxi.
abstract
At present, completely unmanned vehicles have been on the road to provide travel services for the public. Undoubtedly, the large-scale operation of unmanned fleet will become the development focus of Robotaxi in the second half of the year. As a result, related issues such as the introduction of supporting policies and regulations, the cost of mass production of self-driving vehicles, and the pricing of travel service charges will also surface. For Robotaxi enterprises, what they can do now is to continue to deepen technology, reduce mass production costs and explore the profit model of ToB and ToC while expanding the fleet size. One day, ToC's Robotaxi travel service will be launched on a large scale. (Text/car home commentator? Guo Jiahui)