I guess your first reaction is most likely how good the information is, but your second reaction seems to be that it is possible to have less information.
Why?
Because reason tells us that although more information may be good, it can't be absolutely comprehensive.
Therefore, if you want to solve problems as efficiently as an elite, you need to think and make decisions quickly according to limited information and assumptions.
This viewpoint and method comes from the Boston Consulting Work Act written by he cheng Uchida.
Boston Consulting Group is one of the top consulting companies in the world, mainly providing decisions and solutions for enterprises.
Kazuo Uchida is the former president of the Japanese company in Boston, a professor at Waseda University's business school, and the author of Rules Disruption.
The douban score of this book is 9.2, which certainly needs your attention. So far, only 15 people have scored.
The core of this book is that hypothetical thinking is a guide to the evolution of thinking from newcomers to elites in the workplace.
What is different from people is the mode of thinking and the way of working.
So what is a hypothesis? What is hypothetical thinking? The author pointed out in the original text:
To sum up: hypothetical thinking is to constantly think about the whole picture and conclusion of the problem and solve the problem quickly through limited information.
The first step: sketch the framework and think about the structure of the whole thing.
Step 2: Put forward the hypothesis, locate the possible causes of the problem, and put forward the problem hypothesis.
Step 3: Verify the hypothesis, collect information in combination with the positioning problem, solve the problem and verify the hypothesis.
Step 4: Reconstruct the hypothesis, such as incorrectly correcting the direction of the hypothesis and reconstructing the hypothesis.
Let's take 7 1 1 convenience store as an example.
7 1 1 convenience store is a life convenience store that originated in Japan. Based on economic development, 7 1 1 needs to think about how to sell things. Considering this assumption, we have taken the following measures:
Step 1: Draw a frame. It may be more effective to sell drinks in convenience stores in summer, and it will be better to put drink A on another row of shelves.
Step 2: Make a hypothesis. Because it is hot in summer, most people like to buy drinks in drink shops, but they also buy them in convenience stores, so the effect of promoting drinks may be more, and it will be better to put drink A on another row of shelves.
Step 3: Verify the hypothesis, move product A to another row of shelves, record the sales volume of product A after moving, and check the sales volume after 1 week.
Step 4: Reconstruct the hypothesis. If the sales volume of product A has not improved after moving, then other assumptions can be made.
Solve problems as quickly as the elite employees of world-class consulting companies.
1, speed up the problem solving. The way of hypothetical thinking is to think about the whole picture and solutions as much as possible in combination with the current information, and it can speed up the speed of solving problems because of its quick action and rapid verification.
2. Improve foresight and decision-making ability. As a result of constantly trying to solve problems quickly, the ability of foresight and decision-making will continue to improve with each attempt.
3. Improve the ability to organize information. It is certainly not difficult to sort out the whole picture of the problem and the solution according to the limited information for the first time, but the ability will improve with the increase of combing times.
4, help to grasp the overall situation. When combining hypothetical thinking to solve problems, once there is something inconsistent with assumptions, personal logic and thinking can be quickly supplemented, which is an enhancement of personal ability to control the overall situation.
Of course, when you read this, there will be all kinds of questions in your mind.
For example, in the case of multiple possibilities, if the overall framework is decided, it will lead to wrong conclusions because of ignoring the key points.
What needs to be told you is that the core of hypothetical thinking is to verify the inference with the evidence collected by the process.
Another example: it took a month to find that the hypothesis was wrong and had to start a new stove. What should I do?
-If the problem is really important to you, then you will pay attention to the core point, and it is extremely unlikely that you will focus on wrong assumptions after a month of directional information collection.
If you have any other questions, I strongly recommend you to read this book. On the one hand, books are short and can be read quickly. On the other hand, you can find the answer to the question after reading the articles in the book.
After all, in today's society, the speed of decision-making determines its ability to cope with environmental changes, and rapid application can break through development.