In the past year, Wang Hu (pseudonym) of Qingdao paid close attention to the local real estate market, chose a circle, and finally did not choose to buy a house in the high-tech zone. 1 At the beginning of the year, Qingdao High-tech Zone suspended "selling houses by lottery". Although I have settled elsewhere for more than half a year, I still get real estate sales calls from time to time. "There are a lot of marketing calls now, such as paying full discounts and paying a deposit."
According to the incomplete statistics of the Beijing News reporter, since the end of last year, except Qingdao, Heze, Shandong and Guangzhou, Guangdong has successively fine-tuned its real estate policies. The reporter noted that "one city, one policy" has gradually become the key word for the regulation of the property market in various provinces and cities. On June 24th, 65438, Changsha publicly stated that it would carry out the pilot project of "one city, one policy". The number of areas that have adjusted or intend to adjust the property market regulation policy has reached 1 1.
In this regard, Huaxin Securities research report believes that it is difficult to relax the policy in an all-round way this year, but there may be flexible adjustment of one city and one policy.
From popularity to cooling, the listing price of second-hand houses in Qingdao High-tech Zone dropped by 4.66%.
"Before June last year, most of the houses were controlled by developers, and various intermediaries sold their numbers. Later, there was a lottery policy. " Wang Hu of Qingdao was also tempted by the development of high-tech zone, but in the end, he didn't choose to buy a house here. But in the middle of last year, I opened a real estate in Chengyang District.
He told reporters: "In 20 17 years, buyers spent 10000-200000 yuan to buy a house, and the house 12500 yuan/square meter was decorated. By the third quarter of 20 18, the price of buying a house by lottery is the same. Some people in our buying group show off that they spent 65438+ ten thousand talents to get the number. "
As for the hot real estate market in Qingdao High-tech Zone, it may be related to its regional location and positioning. According to official website of Qingdao High-tech Zone, Qingdao High-tech Zone is located in the geographical and geometric center of the city. There are many expressways and railways in the area, which are close to Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport. It is the spatial hub and transportation hub of Qingdao metropolitan area. In addition, the high-tech zone mainly focuses on the development of science and technology service industry, and accelerates the five pillar industries of software and information technology, blue biomedicine, marine equipment research and development, high-end equipment intelligence, energy conservation and environmental protection, and new materials. At present, a number of industrial layouts have achieved good results.
Yu Yang (pseudonym), a native of Qingdao, also told the Beijing News reporter: "The high-tech zone is relatively hot now, and Qingdao West Railway Station is not far from it, and the traffic is more convenient than before. Many people go there to buy a house. "
Because of this, there are rumors about the real estate market in Qingdao High-tech Zone. Wang Hu said: "The municipal government moved to Hongdao Economic Zone, a high-tech zone. Although the municipal government has repeatedly denied rumors and has no plans to relocate, it has not stopped buyers. In addition, there are all kinds of news that there are many new subways to be located in high-tech zones. In addition, the housing price in the high-tech zone is still at a low point due to factors such as price limit, and people who just need, improve and invest buy more, so it is relatively hot. "
According to the data of Anjuke, the average price of second-hand houses in Qingdao High-tech Zone is 16 194 yuan/square meter, which is far lower than the average price of more than 20,000 yuan/square meter in Shinan District, Shibei District and Licang District.
However, on June 38+1October 3, the official WeChat account of Qingdao Chengyang Notary Office announced that it had received a notice from the High-tech Zone Branch of Qingdao Land Resources and Housing Administration to suspend the implementation of the "Rules for the Notarization of Commercial Housing in Qingdao High-tech Zone", which was actually only issued for half a year. The notice shows that the main purpose of the detailed rules is to "maintain the stability of the real estate market in Qingdao High-tech Zone, and rectify the chaos such as real estate speculation, bundled sales, and price increase outside the price". According to the notice, "since the implementation of the detailed rules, all kinds of chaos in the high-tech zone real estate market have been effectively controlled, effectively safeguarding the rights and interests of the majority of buyers and ensuring the smooth operation of the high-tech zone real estate market".
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said in an interview with the Beijing News that the reason for suspending the lottery policy in the high-tech zone is that housing transactions are not as crowded as in the past, and the lottery is of little significance. Therefore, from this perspective, the current policy loosening is in line with expectations. This is actually a job that matches the relationship between supply and demand in a specific market.
The reporter noted that in fact, as early as February 22nd last year, the official WeChat account of Qingdao Chengyang Notary Office published "In view of the fact that the ratio of the number of applicants to the number of saleable houses is lower than 1: 1, the transfer of No.7 plot in Hongdaowan, Xincheng was terminated.
In addition, according to the data of Anjuke, the current price of second-hand houses in Qingdao High-tech Zone dropped by 4.66% from last month, which was higher than the month-on-month decline of second-hand houses in the city 1.99%.
"There are fewer people who want to buy a house than a house, so the lottery is suspended." Wang Hu told reporters that most of the people who buy houses in the high-tech zone are ordinary property buyers, and some property buyers only change apartments in the high-tech zone because of the renovation of old houses. "One-time buy several sets of the kind of speculators, I only heard the salesman said, but have never seen. After all, the high-tech zone is cheaper than the urban area, and many people buy it with a down payment. "
"One city, one policy" has become a key word, and many real estate policies have been fine-tuned
The loosening of Qingdao real estate policy is not a case. At the end of last year, many places have begun to adjust.
According to the incomplete statistics of the Beijing News reporter, since the end of last year, policies such as the cancellation of housing sales restrictions in Heze, Shandong Province and the release of sales targets for commercial and service properties in Guangzhou have been introduced one after another.
Today, the housing sales restriction policy in these two places has been full moon. The reporter noted that according to Anjuke's data, the listing price of second-hand houses in Heze City in June 5438+ 10 was 6502 yuan/square meter, down 0.32% from the previous month. The latest average price in Guangzhou is 32,702 yuan/square meter, up 1.9 1% from last month.
Qu Kang (pseudonym), who has been considering buying a house in Guangzhou, told reporters: "This policy in Guangzhou has no impact on my plan to buy a house. I moved my hukou to Guangzhou just after graduating from college two years ago, so I am eligible to buy a house. In the long run, apartments and other industries are not going to buy, and the time for property rights is too short. I am also afraid that it will affect the settlement and delay the children's future schooling. "
In fact, in 20 19, "one city, one policy" has gradually become the key word for the regulation of the property market in various provinces and cities. According to the statistics of reporters, Fujian, Henan, Hangzhou, Ningbo and other places have indicated that they will study, formulate and implement the "one city, one policy" property market regulation plan. In addition, Changsha and other places have also launched the "one city, one policy" pilot.
65438+1On October 24th, Changsha Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau said that this year, the Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau launched the "one city, one policy" pilot project, striving to make the needy people have housing and afford housing.
In addition, according to Dahe Daily. Com, the second session of the 13th National People's Congress of Henan Province held a press conference on 17. Zhang Da, deputy director of the Provincial Housing and Construction Department, said that in 20 19, the real estate market will continue to implement the main responsibility system for regulating urban governments, adhere to local conditions, implement comprehensive policies, and implement "one city, one policy". From this point of view, the initiative and pertinence of local real estate regulation are increasing.
Yan Yuejin believes that the recent real estate regulation and control policy of "one city, one policy" in many cities is itself the guidance of "adapting to local conditions and classifying guidance". However, in the current downturn of the real estate market, there will be more new ideas. In the short term, local governments will not emphasize policy relaxation, but continue to emphasize the orientation of "one city, one policy"; In the specific implementation process, there are often signs of relaxation in various places. Because in fact, transactions and price slowdown do exist in some big cities, there will be more policy relaxation in various places.
In addition, he said that the emphasis on "one city, one policy" now means that local governments have greater autonomy in regulation. Various types of regulation will have different assessment systems, that is, local governments need to bear the responsibility of regulation.
In fact, "housing without speculation" has always been the unshakable direction of the real estate market. At the Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 20 18, it was once again made clear that "houses are used for living, not for speculation", and it was proposed to consolidate the main responsibility of the city government and improve the housing market system and housing security system.
■ explanation
How to treat the strict regulation of the property market last year?
It is reported that this round of real estate regulation originated in the second half of 20 16. In order to stabilize the real estate market, a series of control measures, such as restricting purchases, sales and loans, have been introduced throughout the country, with great control and wide coverage.
After more than two years of regulation, the national real estate market has cooled down. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from 20 18 to 12, the national investment in real estate development was 120264 billion yuan, with a cumulative increase of 9.5%, and the growth rate was slower than before. Among them, the residential investment was 8.519.2 billion yuan, with a cumulative increase of 13.4%, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than the growth rate of 1- 1.
In addition, in October1-September,1-65438+1October,1-65438+1October, the cumulative growth rate of national commercial housing sales decreased continuously. Judging from the sales area of commercial housing, the cumulative growth rate has declined for four consecutive months.
The most severe period of real estate regulation has passed?
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, told the Beijing News that 20 18 can be said to be the most frequent year in the history of real estate regulation in China. Judging from the content of local policies, the policy orientation of real estate regulation in 20 19 is still strict.
Judging from the history of real estate market regulation in the past decade, the core real estate policy is credit policy. Whether the multi-suite loan restriction policy is tightened determines the strength of the property market policy. As long as there is no obvious change in the credit policy, the adjustment of other policies will have very limited impact on the property market.
Of course, the recent fine-tuning of several cities has also released some loose signals to the market. But at the same time, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Central Economic Work Conference still stressed that housing is not speculation. On the whole, the real estate policy in 20 19 is still more and more fine-tuning except credit, but the overall policy fundamentals are still relatively tight.
20 19 what is the trend of the property market?
Zhang Dawei said that in 20 19, there may be a fine-tuning tide of real estate control policies in at least 30 cities across the country, and many fine-tuning and easing policies will appear intensively in many cities in the future. Especially in second-and third-tier cities, other policies may be adjusted in the near future except credit policies. Now it seems that the market fundamentals have changed, and there are more houses than buyers in most cities.
Yan Yuejin believes that from the current orientation of the real estate market, there will be many subdivision actions in urban policy. It is expected that various policies will be introduced in many cities across the country on 20 19. Similar policies are not simply reflected in relaxation, but there will definitely be relaxation.
The research report of Huaxin Securities believes that it is difficult to relax the policy in an all-round way this year, but there may be flexible adjustment of one city and one policy. If the demand policy is not relaxed, the rebound of inventory will bring supply pressure to the first-hand housing market in some cities this year, and the price fluctuation will increase, and the land transfer income of local governments will also face greater challenges. At present, the source of funds for infrastructure supplement is not completely divorced from land finance. Therefore, the possibility of partial loosening of real estate policy this year is not ruled out. (Reporter Pan Yichun)
(Original title: fine-tuning the threshold 1 1, exploring the road, one city, one policy)