However, regarding the trend of the real estate market, different people have different opinions. Therefore, different from the voice of bearish housing prices, there are still some voices in the industry who expect that the regulatory policies will be loosened at the end of the year or next year, which also brings entanglement and troubles to the buyers who are waiting to see. So, which statement is closer to the actual situation? The author believes that it is unlikely that real estate regulation will be relaxed. At least by the end of this year or even the first half of next year, the overall situation of real estate has basically been decided, and all housing enterprises are generally ready for "winter".
The property market has started the "winter mode", and the three "trends" deserve attention.
First, the curtain of "price reduction promotion" has been slowly opened, and housing enterprises have accelerated sales through "price for quantity"
Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet, since entering the "Golden September and Silver 10", the actions of developers have gradually become "high-profile", and the curtain of price reduction promotion is slowly being opened in many cities across the country. According to relevant statistics, popular cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Zhengzhou, Hefei, etc. Everyone has seen the price reduction promotion. For example, Guangzhou, Zhengzhou and Wuhan have reduced their prices by more than 8,000 yuan per square meter. The price reduction of a high-end residential project in Beijing is as high as 1 1,000 yuan per square meter. In addition, a leading real estate enterprise launched discount activities in more than 800 properties nationwide, with a minimum discount of 60%. Generally speaking, although the "Jin Jiu" is only over half, conventional routines such as low down payment, discounts and special rooms have begun to appear.
Behind the price reduction promotion, to put it bluntly, the main reason is that the house cannot be sold. According to the statistics of Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, the transaction area of new houses in 40 cities monitored in August decreased by 9% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year. Specifically, first-tier cities decreased by 19% month-on-month and16% year-on-year; Second-tier cities decreased by 10%, up by 6% year-on-year; Third-and fourth-tier cities decreased by 4% month-on-month and 17% year-on-year. Obviously, under the influence of regulatory policies, with the expected decline in housing prices, residential transactions tend to decline, and the performance pressure of developers begins to increase. Therefore, the price-for-volume approach is generally adopted to speed up sales. So in the last few months, the phenomenon of price reduction promotion may continue to increase, but the specific effect depends on the price reduction and the acceptance of buyers.
Second, with the arrival of the era of "cash is king", housing enterprises began to control costs and carefully take land, and safety and rationality became the constant choice.
After three years of regulation and control, especially since 20 19, the regulation and control of real estate has continuously strengthened the supervision of real estate financial policies, and the financing channels such as real estate trust and bond issuance have been tightened. Earlier, a media once commented that in the next three years, money is scarce and expensive, and cash is king, so the real estate industry should be prepared for the arrival of tight days. In fact, we can clearly feel this from the central bank's repeated RRR interest rate cuts. Take this RRR cutting as an example. The central bank released 900 billion yuan of long-term funds, which once again made it clear that financial institutions should increase their support for the sources of funds in the real economy, and the real estate industry did not get obvious benefits. In addition, high-debt housing enterprises also ushered in the peak period of debt repayment. Therefore, as a capital-intensive industry, the era of "cash is king" has arrived.
In the face of the "cash is king" stage, the return of selling houses has become the lowest cost and the most reliable cash flow at present, so developers generally begin to exchange prices for quantities. In addition, housing enterprises have also begun to control costs. In addition to being exposed from time to time in order to save labor costs, housing enterprises are now more cautious in taking land. After all, taking more land means taking up the already tight cash flow. Up to now, both R&F and Sunac have indicated that they will suspend land acquisition in the second half of the year unless they encounter high-quality land projects. In other words, although the land reserve is the "granary" of housing enterprises, it pays more attention to quality than quantity at present, and money should be spent on the cutting edge. In short, as the property market returns to rationality, maintaining cash flow security has become a constant choice for developers.
Third, real estate regulation has gradually become the mainstream attitude of the real estate market.
In the past three years, the attitude of the state to regulate the property market has been very firm and powerful, and the regulatory policies have been constantly overweight. In addition to restrictions on purchases and sales, long-term measures such as housing leasing, property rights and long-term rental apartments are also being vigorously promoted. In the face of market changes, how long regulation may last, and no one can accurately tell a result at present. Therefore, most developers are basically in the process of "sitting tight". At present, many cities in the country have seen the phenomenon of price reduction and promotion. Housing enterprises generally focus on sales rebates, but other than that, developers don't have many other big moves. In this regard, the industry believes that the current housing price expectations are generally stable, so developers do not intend to have other big moves. Generally speaking, they have neither drastically reduced the price nor rushed to take the land, which should change.
In fact, "sit tight" is not only for developers, but also for real estate speculators. After three years of regulation, the overall market has obviously cooled down, but the property market has also been divided. Hegang, Rushan, Yumen and other cities have even attracted everyone's attention because of low housing prices. On the other hand, in some hot cities, although the price increase has slowed down, the upward trend still exists, which also increases the bullish expectations of real estate speculators. Therefore, many real estate speculators still hope that regulation can be relaxed, so the room for concessions is limited. On the whole, it has become a consistent choice to stay put. However, the author believes that in any case, the cooling of the property market is a fact, and the trend of real estate policies benefiting self-occupied groups such as those who just need it and those who improve it is also a fact. The fantasy of going back to the carnival time is becoming more and more unrealistic.
Based on the above three "trends", it is "clear" to buy or sell a house in the second half of the year.
Based on the above trends, it can be predicted that the cooling of the property market may continue in the next three months or so, and the tide of discount promotion will also pile up. However, the author believes that buyers need to be clear at the same time. According to the control objectives of stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices and stabilizing expectations, there will be no ups and downs in the real estate market as a whole, and the expectations of superimposed housing enterprises are relatively stable, so the price reduction is relatively limited. The main ways are regular special rooms and low down payment. Therefore, for property buyers, the trend of real estate has basically settled, and there is no need to worry too much about the rise and fall of prices.
Faced with such a situation, the answer to buying or selling a house is obvious. For multi-suite owners, as long as the regulation is not relaxed, the house price will hardly rise again, and too much holding will only increase the holding cost in vain. In addition, "housing is not speculation" has become a social consciousness, and it is increasingly difficult to buy a house to make money, so it is also a window period for moderate reduction of real estate. For those who need to buy a house, the cooling of the property market itself is a great positive factor, and at present, developers have the need to withdraw funds, and multi-suite owners also have the willingness to sell surplus vacant properties, which not only increases the chances of buying a house, but also helps everyone choose a house with high cost performance.