1, what do you think of the development direction of e-commerce logistics?

Logistics is a hard investment, and it may take seven or eight years to level costs and recover profits. This is also the highland of e-commerce competition, or an important explanation that some platforms are still "too big to fail". E-commerce logistics has always been entangled in the path choice of vertical integration and social coordination. Will there be any new changes? When everyone was used to the intensive logistics on the platform being bombarded by news, my colleague Hao Zhiwei and I tried to visit two e-commerce logistics sellers, Wuzhou Online and Baishi Logistics. Last year, their e-commerce logistics service revenue exceeded 100 million, which doubled. The following are their views on the logistics trend of e-commerce 20 13: 1, and the logistics iceberg and bullwhip effect are the key sticking points, which is also 2065433. The so-called logistics iceberg, the real logistics cost is the overall cost, not the unit cost. There has always been a paradox in China logistics: the prices of individual logistics such as warehousing, parcel delivery and express delivery are extremely low in the world, but the overall logistics cost is in a virtual high state. In 20 12, the total logistics cost accounts for about 18% of GDP, which is equivalent to the level of developed countries in Europe and America two or three decades ago. Zhou Shaoning, chairman of Best Logistics, said that the logistics industry in China has worked very hard and needs to save every penny. When communicating with customers, he always said that we should not only look at the explicit cost of a single order, but also see more invisible costs. In fact, some goods can be moved last, but industries are scrambling to do vertical integration, lacking trust and information transparency and coordination, which leads to many invalid logistics costs. The so-called bullwhip effect, which was often mentioned in offline logistics operations, has now spread to online. My colleague Hao Zhiwei wrote: Brands open flagship stores on the e-commerce platform. Under the e-commerce platform, dealers at all levels and even retailers also open online stores everywhere, and they don't share information with each other. In order to fully stock up, retailers often exaggerate their forecast sales. Similarly, dealers at all levels have been enlarged layer by layer, and the number of market demand is far from reality, which leads to the output of the brand exceeding the demand, and then the products are returned layer by layer, which finally becomes an inventory backlog that is difficult to get rid of. Brand owners have lost control of the supply chain and become "suckers". 2. While increasing the vertical integration of their own logistics services, platform vendors may enter a new stage of cooperation with logistics water sellers, and flexible outsourcing will be accelerated to explore the mode of "core self-operated warehouse+outsourced satellite warehouse". This can be seen from the development of Jingdong Logistics: in the early logistics system of JD.COM, brand owners were allowed to put goods in JD.COM. After the order was generated, JD.COM completed the production and distribution of the order. However, this model has also brought a series of problems, which can not effectively control the high cost caused by a large number of returns, especially for brand clothing enterprises with high demand for supply chain response, which has increased a lot of extra supply chain costs. Since then, JD.COM began to try to connect the information system of the third-party logistics supplier selected by the brand. After the order is generated, the order information is transmitted to the order system of the brand enterprise through the system EDI, and then the social logistics company takes orders to complete the order production and parcel distribution, which reduces the "blind action" of the goods. According to Liu Bo, vice president of Best Logistics, in the future, B2C JD.COM and Vipshop will control or even shrink their own logistics to some extent, introduce the services of third-party satellite vendors through authentication, manage the core warehouses themselves, and hand over some businesses to peripheral satellite warehouses. 3. E-commerce of traditional offline brands is increasing the demand for warehouse integration, but the greater challenge in the future lies in the construction of logistics system after O2O integration, which requires the full distribution of channel benefits. For many offline brands such as Seven Wolves and Li Ning, with the integration of online and offline channels, the process of O2O integrated supply chain management has accelerated. Their logistics model based on the structure of "headquarters-provincial companies-distributors-distributors" is still a push thinking of vertical integration. When encountering the impact of massive online orders from all over the country, they are often tired of coping. The interest game between channels also splits the logistics supply chain into two systems, offline and online, and omni-channel retail. From a technical point of view, the integration of logistics supply chain based on O2O integration is completely achievable. At present, the biggest problem is that offline and offline channel games lead to the inseparable relationship between business flow and logistics. Best Logistics believes that the realization of O2O integration should, on the one hand, introduce third-party socialized logistics service providers to realize the integrated management of supply chain; On the other hand, we should gradually promote the integration of the last mile of retail terminals, improve the layout and traditional roles of existing offline stores, and enhance the store to become a customer experience center and an interactive stronghold for brand members in the interactive era. Perhaps one day, the number of SNS specialists in stores will exceed the number of salespeople, mainly interacting with local consumers, and most purchases will be made online. Wuzhou Online proposes to be a "distribution expert" to help traditional enterprises reconstruct logistics, mainly through a transparent and exclusive supply chain system, so that the information of brands, distributors and retailers at all levels is more clear. It is clear to everyone who sells goods at the front end and who gets goods from the warehouse at the back end. In this way, as long as the interests of each other are well distributed, the probability of conflict can naturally be greatly reduced. Brand owners only need to set up an account in Wuzhou Online, and then send the goods to their nearest warehouse as the general warehouse, and all the delivery and distribution can be deployed in the IT system. Warehouse logistics is connected with the front-end retail system. Beijing consumers can deliver goods from the nearest Beijing warehouse even if they shop in the online shop of Shanghai agents. More importantly, how many goods each online store sells, how to make up, how many goods to make up ... the brand is clear at a glance. For example, a certain men's shirt has become an "explosion" in Shanghai, and the local warehouse is out of stock. You can transfer goods from Jiangsu and Zhejiang nearby, instead of from Beijing warehouse. At the same time, the distribution unit is refined to the number, size, color and so on. To ensure quick and accurate response to the needs of dealers at all levels. This not only avoids the waste of production capacity and inventory backlog caused by the bullwhip effect, but also shortens the logistics cycle, reduces the invalid logistics caused by the return of goods and reduces the logistics cost. Generally speaking, the technical level can be fully realized at present, but the key problem lies in how brands coordinate the game between online and offline channels. Many times, offline dealers are reluctant to open to online. 4. E-commerce water sellers have expanded from simple technical support and warehousing and distribution capacity support to integrated logistics services, and "one-stop" service has become a golden signboard. Facing the slow settlement cycle of major platforms, Wuzhou Online began to provide financing value-added services. With the collection of a large number of "symmetrical" information in the system, Wuzhou Online can provide merchants with a certain proportion of funds for purchasing and stocking according to the amount of goods in stock; At the same time, according to the market and brand situation, it can also provide merchants with financing for the purchase of hot-selling products; In addition, due to the lack of funds to expand new business due to the expiration of the B2C platform, Wuzhou Online can also pay part of the payment to the merchants in advance according to the situation ... The new version of Best Logistics has also surfaced, and its operation mode is like a nationwide logistics service cloud, including the five core businesses of Best Supply Chain (design and implementation of integrated logistics solution), Best Express (express delivery), Best Express, Best E-commerce (e-commerce logistics service) and Best Software, which are the core of the platform. When communicating with me, Zhou Shaoning, chairman of Baishi, said that Baishi is building a cloud logistics community in a way similar to Apple's platform. It doesn't matter whether it has vehicle resources or whether it has built its own warehouse on a large scale. "In the future, the development of e-commerce will realize the separation and re-integration of business flow, logistics and information flow, and the cloud logistics model based on platform mode will be popular."