Viagra also carefully watched all the speeches and interviews. To sum up briefly, I hope it is useful for readers to buy or sell houses:
1: It is not the slogan that determines the development of real estate, but the stable development of the economy.
Housing prices depend on policies in the short term, policies in the medium term and policies in the long term.
Real estate, whether it is a long-term mechanism or a short-term mechanism, is a link under the stable economic development. Only when the economy is stable can there be stable real estate development.
Steady economic development, full employment 1, 654,380,000 people is the foundation. 6.5% GDP growth rate is the basis of all regulation.
2. Preventing financial risks and reducing leverage is the mainstream trend of 20 18.
China's total economic output has reached more than 80 trillion, and its bank assets have reached more than 250 trillion. In the past few years, leverage has been increased to maintain stability. Now that the leverage ratio is too high, it must be reduced.
Mortgage tightening is normal, and the explosive leverage increase of 20 15-20 16 is impossible to last.
What kind of president you change will not affect the easing of credit.
3. Real estate is not developed according to the city level.
The concept of city level is invalid, and the division of the first, second and third lines is of little significance. On the contrary, city circle and urban agglomeration will become hot spots of real estate investment.
4. Real estate regulation and differentiation, it is difficult to rise in the first and second lines during the year.
It is very difficult for first-and second-tier hotspot cities to increase 20 18, but according to statistics, in the first half of 20 16-20 17, many cities traded a lot of rehmannia glutinosa. Some of these projects have entered the market, a few are price-limited days, and most of them are double contracts.
In this case, there are many projects to be signed by the city, and the average price of subsequent contracts will continue to rise.
The transaction volume of first-tier cities will also be significantly higher than 20 17.
So 20 18 is an opportunity for buyers to buy a house.
5: Third-and fourth-tier cities 20 18 will still rise.
Third-and fourth-tier cities and county-level cities under third-and fourth-tier cities are in a vacuum in the implementation of real estate regulation and control policies. Basically, compared with cities where the price has not doubled in 20 15, there is still an expectation of an increase.
From the perspective of plate rotation, the third-and fourth-tier cities in Northeast China and Central China still have an upward trend.
The areas that have increased significantly before will gradually enter a stable state at 20 18.
6. The landing of real estate tax?
The wind has been raining. 65438+ 10, Viagra judged that real estate tax is not a short-term factor affecting the real estate market. It should be noted that real estate tax is only a tool, not a policy. The landing effect of real estate tax depends on the tax base and tax rate.
I'm sure I won't get it in three years, and it may not have any impact after three years. Of course, for the market, because there will definitely be a stock shock, this policy will definitely hit the future market.
7. Development of the leasing market
Leasing can only be a transitional preparation before buying a house. Don't spend too much money on renting a house, save a down payment as much as possible. People who fool about renting houses are buying houses. When the person who encourages you to rent a house says that you don't have a suite with your family, then you should consider renting it for life.
For housing enterprises, the leasing industry has now become the Red Sea, and the market simply does not need so many high-end rental houses. It is getting harder and harder to buy a house, and the cost of buying a house is getting higher and higher.
8: How much will the mortgage interest rate rise?
(The above answers were published on 20 18-03-22. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )
For more real estate information, policy interpretation and expert interpretation, click to view.