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The essence of destocking in the real estate market is government-led debt transfer and risk transfer. The path of debt transfer is: the government transfers to the developer, and the developer transfers to the private sector. Some friends don't understand why there is government debt. But it's true. In order to stimulate economic growth, the government has run out beautiful national GDP data and will borrow money for various investments, such as road construction, subway construction and development zone construction. These infrastructure projects need to raise a lot of money, but most places have insufficient fiscal revenue. What should I do? Then go to the bank to borrow money! Loans from tens of millions to hundreds of millions have gradually become hundreds of millions of loans. The banknotes printed by the central bank immediately flowed into the market in batches. Whoever borrows more will start more infrastructure projects and the GDP data will run better.

One by one, the government made plans in advance. Developers build houses one after another, unwilling to give up day and night. Banks lend one loan after another and recover profits one after another. This happy mode has realized first-tier cities and second-tier cities. However, this model has encountered obstacles in the third, fourth and fifth tier cities. People who have the ability to make money can go to the first tier cities, and there are not enough fish in the third, fourth and fifth tier cities. Not catching enough fish is a big problem. Because small and medium-sized cities all over the world have learned the experience of debt development in first-tier cities, the money just lent can't be sold.

There is no clear concept of destocking. Statistically speaking, it is to build houses that have not been sold or have obtained pre-sale certificates. The popular view is the stock room of the first-hand house. According to the latest statistics, in 20 17 and 20 18, the number of commercial houses to be destocked or the area for sale decreased by about1700,000 square meters. The evaluation of this figure by the National Bureau of Statistics is: the effect of destocking appears. The destocking of real estate is related to the blind promotion of real estate in some cities, especially in some cities with 3456 lines, where there are too many houses and the demand for housing in cities is not great, resulting in inventory. The recent upsurge of housing prices started from 20 15, and the rise of housing prices also pushed the development of real estate to a climax. Unfortunately, some of these climaxes are false and there is no actual demand to support them. The policy is loose, and there are no regulatory policy interventions such as purchase restriction, loan restriction, price restriction and sales restriction. On the contrary, there are some policies to encourage the purchase of houses; The actual effect of encouraging housing enterprises to reduce prices is not so ideal, and the expectation of housing prices of housing enterprises is not so easy to break;

Or the transformation of shanty towns is helpful to digest the inventory, especially the monetization of shanty towns, which has generated a lot of purchasing power demand, making some small and medium-sized cities enter the real estate market in stages; Fourth, farmers buying houses in cities has also become the driving force for digestion. The real estate market destocking is a high-sounding term. You know, what is inventory? Inventory must be a backlog of goods. Only surplus goods will be piled up in the warehouse. All right, let people buy things you can't sell. Here comes the problem. Imagine that local governments are the big buyers! We don't understand why local governments are big buyers. Because the destocking of the real estate market is called for above. In short, government decrees must be unblocked. Actually, this is a good thing. The central government seeks to maximize people's well-being. Therefore, the local government quickly took action, such as shantytown renovation, urban demolition, and old city renovation. The government exchanges money for land. First, it goes to the real estate market to destock, so as to reduce property developers from jumping off buildings. Second, it achieves the continuous rise of three-dimensional GDP and high housing prices, killing two birds with one stone.