(See the watermark in the lower right corner of the picture for the source of the above picture. )
Not to mention where the roots of these two forecast maps came from, these two forecast maps alone really scared many Shanghai property buyers. In fact, will Shanghai's housing prices really be as shown in the above picture?
Industry expert Lu Qilin thinks it is not very reliable. According to the data released by the Bureau of Statistics, the price of new houses in Shanghai rose by 15% and 438+0 1 in June 2065. If house prices go in this direction, the increase of house prices in 2065,438+06 will reach an amazing range, exceeding 20%, and the statistics will exceed 20%. Under the policy of restricting purchases and loans, is it necessary for Shanghai housing prices to rise by 50% within two years?
Urban area 1.6-0.2 million yuan/square meter?
It is impossible for the average urban price to reach such a high level for the time being. In 20 15, the average price of the most expensive Jing' an district and Huangpu district did not exceed 654.38+10,000 yuan/square meter, so 200,000 yuan/square meter is only the price of some buildings. The lowest price of Cuihu Tiandi, which recently obtained the pre-sale certificate, is only1200,000 yuan/square meter, which is only the price of some scarce houses. According to past experience, the average transaction price of most properties should be the lowest.
The developer's guaranteed price does not have to be sold at this price!
Is the Xi Du Plate in Fengxian District more expensive than Jiading New Town and Nanqiao New Town? This price is very unreliable. At the beginning, Xincheng Real Estate sold at a loss after taking land in Jiading New Town. Personally, I think that if developers develop and sell quickly, the Xi Du plate will also face losses. The break-even price of Tang Zhen developers is underestimated. At the beginning of this year, the land price of nearly 30 thousand developers' famous cities seems a bit low now. Isn't Tang Zhen worse than Jiangqiao and Dachang? At present, the housing price in this area has reached 50,000 yuan/square meter, and Jiangqiao developers may not be able to sell this price in the past two years. If they sell it, the price in Tang Zhen will be higher.
The forecast house price map is not credible, and the current price is the most credible!
Then let's take a look at the real average transaction price of 20 15.
(The above picture is transferred from WeChat: Laolulun City)
The most expensive downtown is Jing 'an District, with an average price of 910.5 million yuan/square meter. The prices of Huangpu District, Xuhui District, Changning District, Hongkou District, Zhabei District, Yangpu District and Putuo District are as follows: 80,300 yuan/square meter, 69,000 yuan/square meter, 656,543.8+0,000 yuan/square meter and 64,700 yuan.
House prices in other areas: Minhang District 38,000 yuan/square meter, Pudong New Area 35,900 yuan/square meter, Baoshan District 27,200 yuan/square meter, Songjiang District 23,900 yuan/square meter, Qingpu District 25,654.38 yuan/square meter, Jiading District 20,300 yuan/square meter, Fengxian District 1.9 1.
Therefore, Shanghai property buyers just need to look at the two pictures that are madly transmitted online. At present, second-and third-tier cities across the country are vigorously destocking. Although the real estate market in first-tier cities is still hot, it will still be affected by the big situation, and the skyrocketing housing prices are not realistic.
(The above answers were published on 20 15- 12-22. Please refer to the actual purchase policy. )
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