On April 1 1, it was reported that the policy of restricting the sale of second-hand houses in Suzhou was relaxed, and the social security payment requirements for non-local registered buyers were loosened. The reporter learned from the local real estate trading center and the intermediary office that no official documents have been issued for the relevant adjustments, especially the purchase policy of non-local household registration personnel. The local new house trading center clearly stated that there has been no change.
Some people in the real estate industry told reporters that the recent epidemic has a certain impact on Suzhou transactions, which may stimulate policy optimization to some extent. According to incomplete statistics, since the beginning of this year, more than 60 cities have adjusted their local property market policies, from lowering interest rates and down payment ratios to gradually liberalizing the policies of restricting purchases and sales. Under optimistic trading expectations, real estate stocks have also picked up significantly in the secondary market.
However, just on Monday, the real estate stocks that continued to rise for more than half a month were divided, and there was a wave of down limit in early trading. In the news, the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to heat up, and the spread between China and the United States will be upside down again after 10 years, and domestic monetary policy expectations are different. The latest credit data shows that the medium and long-term credit of residents representing housing mortgage loans has obviously picked up, and institutions are generally optimistic about real estate sales and stock price performance.
Suzhou second-hand housing sales restrictions may be loosened.
"The epidemic has a great impact on the Suzhou property market, and it is very inconvenient to see the house. The previous transaction has been ok. " Regarding the news that the policy of restricting the sale of second-hand houses has been released, a local real estate agent in Suzhou said that it may be related to the recent local epidemic that has intensified the downturn in transactions. "Otherwise it may not be so fast."
On April 1 1, it was reported that Suzhou relaxed the restriction on the sale of second-hand houses, and the restriction period was adjusted from 5 years to 3 years, and the new houses remained unchanged for 3 years, which will be implemented on the same day. The reporter called the local real estate market and transaction management center (hereinafter referred to as the "transaction center"), and the relevant staff said that at present, the commercial house (new house) has not received any notice of change, and the telephone number responsible for second-hand housing transactions has been "on the phone" as of press time. However, according to the above intermediaries, the company has received the news of the relaxation of the sale of second-hand houses, and it is expected that official documents will be issued in the near future.
In addition, it is also reported that the staff of Suzhou Trading Center revealed that the purchase restriction policy will also be adjusted from April 1 1, that is, non-registered households apply for the purchase of the first home in Suzhou, Kunshan and Taicang, and the social security period requirements will be adjusted from the original continuous three years to the accumulated two years. In this regard, the local intermediary said "I have never heard of it", but if the supply and demand of housing are loosened, the Suzhou property market is expected to rebound significantly after the epidemic.
The reporter inquired about the Opinions on Further Improving the Stable and Healthy Development of Suzhou Real Estate Market issued in July 2065438+2009. For commercial housing projects in Suzhou city (including those that have obtained pre-sale permits but have not yet started online signing) and second-hand houses, buyers can transfer them after 3 years and 5 years respectively from the date of obtaining real estate warrants; When applying for purchasing houses in Suzhou, Kunshan and Taicang 1, families who are not registered in this city should provide proof that they have paid personal income tax or social insurance (urban social insurance) continuously in Suzhou for two years or more in the first three years from the date of purchase.
Since the fourth quarter of last year, under the background of continuous rectification of financing policies by supervision, various localities have laid out "one city, one policy". According to the statistics of the Central Reference Institute, in the first quarter of this year alone, more than 60 cities adjusted their property market policies. After lowering the mortgage interest rate, reducing the down payment ratio and increasing the amount of provident fund loans, some cities gradually liberalized the restrictions on sales, purchases and loans. Before Suzhou, Zhengzhou, Harbin, Fuzhou, Lanzhou, Qinhuangdao, Quzhou and Qingdao Jimo had loosened the "five limits" policy.
However, behind the deepening of urban policies, the property market transactions in March continued to decline year-on-year. In particular, the performance of third-and fourth-tier cities is still not optimistic, and the lack of confidence of buyers leads to greater pressure on de-transformation. The inventory cycle of 66 third-and fourth-tier cities monitored by Ke Rui has reached 23.25 months in February, with a year-on-year increase of over 80%. According to the latest statistics of Southwest Securities, among the 32 cities tracked by Southwest Securities, the cumulative transaction area of commercial housing continued to decrease by 49.9% year-on-year and 19.4% quarter-on-quarter. Institutions generally expect that more cities will follow suit in the future, and third-and fourth-tier cities with high pressure and large fluctuations in house prices are more likely to relieve pressure.
Policy transmission is expected to gradually land.
Stimulated by good news from many places, the real estate sector has continued to rise in the secondary market since the middle and late March. As of last Friday, the sector as a whole rose by more than 30%, clearly outperforming the broader market. During the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 6. 13%. Previously, the industry had strong expectations for working capital to support housing enterprises to get out of trouble.
However, in the early morning of April 1 1, real estate stocks failed to continue their gains, and many stocks staged a downward trend. According to the news of the day, with the expectation of the Fed's interest rate hike, the yield of 10-year Chinese and American treasury bonds was upside down for the first time in 20 10 years. Some analysts pointed out that the spread between China and the United States is upside down or due to changes in the economic fundamentals and inflation expectations of the two countries after the epidemic. Worried about capital outflow and exchange rate risk, the market is divided on whether China's monetary easing policy can be sustained.
However, domestic institutions are generally optimistic about the future trend of real estate stocks. First of all, in terms of monetary policy, the the State Council executive meeting on April 6th once again emphasized the soundness of monetary policy, and at the same time mentioned improving the financial service level of new citizens and optimizing the financial service of affordable housing. Chen Li, a real estate analyst in Zhongtai Securities, believes that the National People's Congress (NPC) has released a positive signal to meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and it is expected that there will be room for further downward adjustment of the five-year LPR (loan market quotation) on the currency side.
The latest social financing and credit data released by the central bank in April 1 1 shows that the willingness of banks to provide credit generally increased in the first quarter, and the scale of new RMB loans and social financing exceeded market expectations. Among them, residents' medium and long-term loans reflecting mortgage demand increased by 1.07 trillion yuan in the first quarter. Although March continued to increase by 250.4 billion yuan year-on-year, compared with February, when residents' medium and long-term loans rarely declined, it has rebounded and resumed positive growth.
Secondly, the promotion of real estate credit and sales by local governments due to city policies. Earlier, there was institutional analysis, and the middle of the year was an important turning point. The recent research report of CITIC Securities also pointed out that the bottom of real estate policy, the bottom of sales and the bottom of investment always appear in turn. The bottom of the policy was clear in the fourth quarter of last year. Since March, the favorable urban policies have accelerated, and the growth rate of commercial housing sales may bottom out in the second quarter, but investment still needs to wait for the bottom. As long as the downward pressure on the economy is not substantially alleviated, or the bottom of real estate sales is not confirmed, the easing policy of real estate may continue to be introduced, and real estate stocks still have room for growth.
In the long run, Xie Haoyu, an analyst of Guotai Junan Real Estate, believes that in view of the tight credit for housing enterprises to curb land capitalization and the high urbanization rate of the population, in the future, only by increasing the credit support of housing enterprises to promote the development of the industrial chain can residents' income and income expectations rise, otherwise the credit expansion may be lower than expected. In the case of weak economy and continuous loose liquidity, there may be an asset shortage.