It's cold to guess whether the Little Ice Age is coming.
Important global shipping data seems to have quietly confirmed this.
Guess. According to reports, it symbolizes the international dry bulk freight rate.
BDI (Baltic Dry Index) recently hit a 25-year low.
The shipping market is very depressed. Some market participants believe that sea ice blocking caused by extreme cold is an important factor to aggravate this downturn.
Factors. However, emergency disaster reduction and public services in central weather bureau
The Chief Secretary for Administration, Chen Zhenlin, spoke at the press conference on February 8.
As far as China is concerned, the sea ice in Bohai Sea is perennial.
Normal phenomena have not led to the depression of the shipping market.
The main reason. The industry believes that international overcapacity is the main reason for this decline. The extremely depressed BDI BDI, which is hard to return, has caused a stricter shipping industry.
Great influence. 65438+10.3, BDI closed at 1624; But 2
On April 4th, the BDI index fell to 65 1, and this figure was created.
Since the new century, BDI index has hit a new low, which has fallen below 2008.
The historical low of 663 points when the financial crisis broke out. one month
In a short time, BDI plummeted by 60%, while the figure in the same period last year was still above 1000. Zhang Shouguo, vice president of China Shipowners Association, said that no matter
In absolute or relative terms, the current BDI is
Set a record low, the shipping industry is now facing a situation that exceeds
It used to be worse. The shipping industry is in recession, and shipping companies are facing unprecedented challenges.
There are some difficulties, shipowners lack confidence, and shipowners' associations are working hard.
We are going to appeal to the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce and other departments to introduce rescue measures, and hope that relevant state departments will give support, such as
Due consideration should be given to reducing or exempting the business tax of domestic shipping enterprises, and enterprises should be implemented.
Preferential industrial income tax; Domestic traders are conducting foreign trade.
When you can master the right of transportation and hand over the task of transporting goods to the country.
Domestic airlines. As for whether the shipping industry will improve in the short term, it is generally
Generally speaking, when BDI is around 3000, shipping companies can be serious.
Don't lose money now; When the BDI index falls below 2000 points, it is very
Many shipping companies will not make a profit. Currently, the index has been
If it is below 700 points, it may rebound in the future, but it is difficult to have it.
The fundamental reason for the great improvement lies in overcapacity, and the increase of commodities is not affected by global economic uncertainties.
It is ideal. Now shipping companies are trying their best to delay the delivery of new ships.
Pay, or suspend chartering. Affected by the European debt crisis and global overcapacity,
It is difficult for the shipping market to get out of the trough in the short term.
Winter will continue. It is expected that after 20 13, with
Economic recovery and gradual digestion of excess capacity, shipping market
This field is likely to gradually come out of the trough. Shanghai International Shipping Research Center Shipping Market Analysis Department
Zhang Yongfeng, deputy director, said that the situation of overcapacity in 20 12 will
Further aggravate. It is estimated that the world bulk cargo shipping volume will be 20 12 years.
The trade volume was about 3.804 billion dwt, a year-on-year increase.
4.7%; The total tonnage of international dry bulk carriers will reach
7130,000 dwt, with a year-on-year increase of 14.9%. In 20 12, the international dry bulk market will still be in the cyclical recovery of low consolidation.
In the complex stage, the annual average BDI index is expected to be 1700 points.
About. Another industry insider said that in order to deal with this problem,
Before the market downturn, after China Ocean Shipping Group.
(COSCO Group) 20 1 1 Rapid integration of dry bulk business.
After that, China Shipping Group (China Shipping Group) will also
Subordinate dry bulk assets integration, thus embarking on specialization.
Integrate the road. A shipping researcher close to COSCO Group said that the dry bulk business integration of COSCO Group is still in progress.
Line up. In fact, this integration is the general trend, because
In such a depressed market situation, if it is not complete,
Combined, the pressure of operation will be greater and greater. Shipbuilding is hard to turn over. If the shipowner can't make money, the shipbuilding industry can't get orders.
Single, "difficult to receive orders" has become a major disaster in China shipbuilding industry.
According to the data published by China Shipbuilding Industry Association,
20 1 1 year, the national new ship order volume is 36.22 million deadweight tons.
Tons, down 52% year on year. However, due to the financial crisis,
A large number of orders accumulated before, China shipbuilding completed 76.65 million tons last year, still increasing by 17% year-on-year. However, the key to whether the shipbuilding industry has growth potential is still
Look at the new order. From Shanghai Waigaoqiao, it is a subsidiary of CSSC.
According to the information of the shipyard, the company has not yet
After receiving the order, there are reserves from previous years, so it is good to hold the order.
It can also maintain the output this year and next. And some small and medium-sized shipyards can no longer hold on. "Last year I
About 40% of the 100 shipyards here have not received new orders.
Single, by eating surplus grain, most of it can only last until the second half of this year.
A few years. Jin Wenlin, Secretary General of Zhejiang Taizhou Shipbuilding Industry Association.
Express delivery. In the local area, the risk of underemployment has emerged.
Some shipyards choose to give workers a holiday and bask in the sun on the slipway. Bankruptcy news keeps coming: last year 10, two books in Ningbo
The local shipyards "Hengfu Shipbuilding" and "Blue Sky Shipbuilding" are
Declared bankrupt according to law, Zhoushan Yuheng Shipbuilding has recently entered bankruptcy proceedings.
Production and reorganization procedures. Some insiders predict that there will eventually be
30% of the shipyards are shut down. The depression of the international shipping market has also affected the shipbuilding industry in China.
Had a negative impact. More than 70% of China shipbuilding orders.
Only for export, the main customers are European countries, including Norway.
Wei, Turkey, Switzerland, Germany and so on. Affected by the European debt crisis
Ring, European shipowners have difficulty in financing, and the demand is naturally large.
Greatly reduced. Taking ship financing as an example, it is a huge demand for funds.
Big business. Germany, the world's largest ship financing bank
The ship loan provided by China North Bank is close to 2008.
60 billion dollars, close to 50 billion dollars in 2009, 20 10 years.
Only $30 billion, 20 1 1 will be further reduced. Without the bank loan, the order quantity of the shipowner to the shipyard will be
Will decrease. Even if there is an order, not only will the price be very low,
And the down payment ratio will also be lowered. Shanghai Shipping Broker Jule
Liu Xunliang, secretary-general of the Ministry, said that the current price of new ships is higher than finance.
Before the crisis, it was reduced by more than 1/3, and the down payment ratio was also lower than before.
From 40% to 20%. As a result, the cash flow of many shipyards is greatly tight, and the financial pressure has suddenly increased. Due to the outstanding problem of excess capacity, the global shipping price has fallen.
Plummeting, while fuel prices are rising, leading to
Collective losses of shipping enterprises. Last year, at the global shipping price,
It has dropped by 25%, of which the freight rate on the Asia-Europe route has dropped by nearly 60%.
As of this year1October 20th, 65438, the fuel price of container ships reached a record high.
A record, up 32% over the same period last year. Last year, the global shipping industry lost $5.2 billion. By the end of this year, there will be a new set with a total capacity of 6.5438+0.3 million boxes.
Container ships put into the market is the global container fleet capacity.
It will increase by 8.7%, exceeding the demand by 2%. Due to the supply of transportation capacity
On demand, leisure needs 6,543,800,000 container ships.
Only by docking or docking can market supply and demand be finally balanced. count
It also shows that the market currently holds $57 billion in new ship orders, and will increase by 4.5 million in the next four years.
TEU capacity. At present, the total capacity of global container ships is
150,000 TEU, and the new capacity is close to the current total scale.
1/3, with huge transportation pressure, is a famous shipping consulting machine.
Drewry estimates that the global container transport capacity will be satisfied in the next five years.
It's hard to improve. Although this year's world's three backbone routes: Asia
Europe to North America, Asia to Europe and the Atlantic Ocean between Europe and America.
The shipping logistics volume of this route will still increase compared with last year, but due to flights
The overall capacity of online ships is surplus, so this year is
Shipping companies operating regular freight on three backbone routes
It is difficult to increase income. Drewry, a world-renowned British shipping consulting company.
According to the latest forecast report, the seas around the world this year
The total logistics volume will increase by 8. 1% compared with last year, but the overall ship
The carrying capacity increased by 12.5% compared with last year. Three backbones this year
The forecast value of maritime logistics volume on maritime routes is: Asia.
The route to North America will exceed 6,543,800 TEU；; The route from Asia to Europe will exceed 6 million TEU；; Euro-American Atlantic route will
More than 3.5 million TEUs. On the three backbone lines, each large-scale
Shipping companies have invested in the operation of large container ships.
Camp, the pursuit of economies of scale, so that container ships bear.
The carrying capacity has been greatly increased. It is foreseeable that large containers
The overall carrying capacity of the future transport fleet will be further expanded. Therefore, the shipping on the three backbone routes is studied and discussed.
The balance between supply and demand of logistics volume and carrying capacity is still roughly maintained.
Balance has become a new topic in the shipping industry. although
After the global economy comes out of recession in the future, this is still
A perennial topic in shipbuilding, shipping, logistics and other departments. Due to the overall loss of the industry, in order to save costs, shipping
Enterprises have slowed down. Since last August, the world
The average speed of container ships decreased by 1 1%, which is close to history.
Low position. The average speed of Maersk, the largest shipping company, is from
From the 20th section in 2008 to the present section 16- 18, it is still under study.
Can it be further reduced to 12- 16 knots, which is slower than the speed of clippers engaged in transoceanic transportation in19th century? But people in the industry
It is believed that further reducing the speed will push up the cost.