Analysts believe that the pharmaceutical industry is limited by external interference. If the disturbance factors continue to escalate, relevant enterprises are expected to accelerate their independent innovation in the field of high-end equipment and instruments. Looking forward to the future, R&D innovation, consumption upgrading and manufacturing upgrading will become the long-term trend of the pharmaceutical industry.
Adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure
China pharmaceutical industry is dominated by internal supply. According to the data of National Bureau of Statistics, the main income of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in 20 18 was nearly 2.4 trillion yuan, of which export delivery value was only about146 billion yuan. According to the relevant data released by China Medical Insurance Chamber of Commerce on 20 18, the main medical products exported by China are raw materials (47%), hospital diagnosis and treatment equipment (16%) and health care and rehabilitation equipment (9%).
As for external interference factors, some professionals pointed out that China raw materials have a strong competitive advantage in the world, and raw materials often belong to industries with high pollution and high energy consumption. In the previous process of global industrial chain transfer, Europe and the United States have transferred the API industry with relatively serious pollution to developing countries, and their own production capacity is limited, which just happens to have a demand gap.
With the reform of medical insurance payment system and the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure, the sub-sectors of pharmaceutical industry are obviously divided. According to the data provided by Zhongtai Securities, in 20 18 years, the income of listed pharmaceutical companies increased by 20.5 1%, the total profit increased by 7.78%, and the non-net profit increased by 8.33%. In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue growth rate of listed pharmaceutical companies was 65,438+06.42%, the total profit increased by 6.44%, and the non-net profit increased by -3.73%. If the API plate is deducted, the pharmaceutical industry still maintains a non-profit growth of 2.89%.
Pay attention to the subdivision of high prosperity
According to the data released by CITIC Construction Investment (22.50+ 1.40%, consulting unit), the allocation of institutions to the pharmaceutical sector is at the historical average level. The overall proportion of pharmaceutical positions in Public Offering of Fund in the first quarter was 1 1.09%, up by 0.8 1 percentage point from the previous quarter. Excluding pharmaceutical funds, the shareholding ratio is about 8.02%, up 0.95 percentage points from last quarter, and the fund position ratio is the average level since 20 15.
Under the background of external disturbance and macroeconomic fluctuation, the allocation value of pharmaceutical sector is prominent. He Juying, an analyst at CITIC Construction Investment, pointed out that we should continue to pay attention to the areas of advantage segmentation and start with six clues: first, prescription drugs, and it is recommended to pay attention to the leading innovative drugs (60.07+0.77%, consulting unit) and Hengrui Pharma, the leading growth hormone in policy immunization; Second, the core goal of medical outsourcing; The third is the core goal of adjoint diagnosis; Fourth, leading companies in equipment, chain pharmacies and medical services; Fifth, leading enterprises in medical informatization; Sixth, companies with great potential for mixed reform.
Zhongtai Securities analysts Jiang Qi and Zhao Lei believe that looking forward to the next three years, R&D innovation, consumption upgrading and manufacturing upgrading will become the long-term trend of the industry. In the field of R&D and innovation: innovative drugs are still the most certain trend, and R&D and innovation are the future of pharmaceutical industry. It is suggested to lay out the high-quality standards of innovative drugs with rich product pipelines, and at the same time, the outsourcing of medical services will be transferred to China, which will greatly increase the domestic demand for innovation. Domestic innovative drug outsourcing has ushered in an outbreak, and it is recommended to lay out leading enterprises with strong competitiveness; In terms of consumption upgrading, medical services, vaccines, self-funded specialty drugs and branded Chinese medicines benefit from the consumption upgrading trend, and high-quality leading enterprises are expected to maintain rapid growth; In terms of manufacturing upgrading, generic drug companies are affected by policies such as quantity procurement, and their valuations will be suppressed; However, the short-term performance is generally unaffected, and after the reshuffle of the industry, a new leader in escape cost leadership strategy and high-barrier generic drugs will be born, and some high-quality enterprises will have the opportunity to repair the overvalued valuation.