1. Main business score: 75
1. business analysis: the company's main business is intelligent testing equipment. Based on the optical principle and software algorithm, the size of industrial products can be measured with high accuracy, and the highest accuracy can reach 0.3 micron, reaching the international first-class level. Downstream applications are mainly consumer electronics production lines, and Apple is also the company's biggest customer. However, in recent years, the investment demand for production lines in lithium batteries, photovoltaics, semiconductors and other fields is strong, and the company's products have also entered these emerging fields. The market dependence of consumer electronics has also dropped rapidly from 88% in 2020 to 49.76% in 202 1, thus avoiding the industry cycle. In addition, the company's products are also used in smart factories, PCB, smart parking, robots and other fields.
The application of machine vision technology in consumer electronics industry began twenty years ago, and it is still the most important application field of machine vision and the most important driving force for the development of the global machine vision market. The consumer electronics industry has the characteristics of short product life cycle and rapid upgrading. Frequent model and design changes cause manufacturing enterprises to purchase and update production line equipment frequently, which has great demand for the upstream machine vision industry. In 20021year, due to the landing of 5G technology, the smart phone industry was greatly upgraded, and due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, there was a strong demand for electronic products such as tablets and notebooks, which brought a round of substantial growth to the machine vision industry.
2. Industry competition pattern: There are two main types of participants in the machine vision market in China. The first category is established foreign machine vision enterprises (including branches and joint ventures in China), and the second category is emerging domestic independent R&D enterprises. Foreign-funded machine vision enterprises have long development time, high brand awareness, strong technology research and development capabilities, high product performance and reliability, more product types and schemes, better management, accurate market judgment and strong planning. At the same time, however, from the perspective of product design, the products of foreign-funded enterprises are generally based on standards, which is difficult to cope with more application scenarios and customization preferences of domestic customers, and the product price is relatively high, which is at a relative disadvantage in the environment of rising overall cost pressure of customers. Compared with foreign-funded enterprises, domestic machine vision enterprises have short development time, low popularity, weak technology research and development capabilities, and there is still a certain gap between the performance and stability of independent research and development products and foreign brands. However, domestic enterprises have a better understanding of domestic customers' needs and markets, can provide flexible and customized services, respond to customers' needs quickly, have short delivery cycle, obvious cost advantages and increase market share year by year.
The market share of the company's vision inspection products in 2065438+2009 is about 5.25%, which occupies a leading position in China. Its main competitors include DWFritz, Hennecke, Moment Technology, Precision Electronics and Otway. Domestic enterprises have different product lines and different professional fields. Precision measurement electronics focuses on the field of panel optical detection, and its main customers are BOE；; Oatway focuses on the emerging fields of photovoltaic and lithium batteries, so its valuation is much higher than that of the company. Moment technology products focus on automatic patch and LED optical defect detection, and customers are all over industrial production enterprises. However, the number of enterprises in the industry is still very large, including foreign capital and domestic capital, and the market is still relatively scattered, mainly because the overall customers are relatively scattered and the demand is highly customized. Therefore, it is difficult for enterprises to unify rivers and lakes. In the future, the company is expected to gradually occupy more markets and enhance market concentration by virtue of excellent technology and new products.
3. Industry development prospect: The biggest application field of visual intelligent detection equipment is still consumer electronics. Because of the rapid upgrading of consumer electronics and the influence of some economic cycles, consumer electronics as a whole presents a certain cyclical nature. 202 1 the overall market prosperity of consumer electronics declined. Fortunately, the demand for semiconductors, photovoltaics, lithium batteries and other fields has exploded rapidly, making up for the demand gap. Once the demand for consumer electronics breaks out and emerging industries continue to grow, the industry is expected to usher in a period of rapid growth. At the same time, in recent years, the technical strength of domestic head enterprises has made rapid progress, and many segments have reached the international first-class level. With the advantages of low cost and customization, they gradually occupy more markets, and the future localization trend will also be one of the core logics of industry growth.
4. The logic of the company's performance growth: (1) Consumer electronics demand picks up; (2) The downstream demand for semiconductors and photovoltaics in new markets is strong; (3) domestic substitution; (4) Sufficient orders on hand and continuous research and development of new products.
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Two. Corporate governance score: 75
1. Major shareholders and senior management: the major shareholder directly holds 4 1.32%, and the second largest shareholder Tianzhun He Zhi is the core high-level shareholding platform, with a total shareholding of about 53%. Other senior executives indirectly hold shares in the company through Tian Zhun He Zhi, accounting for about 8%. Coupled with the second-phase employee stock ownership platform, the total equity incentive exceeds 10%, which is very encouraging. Most of the major shareholders and core management have technical background, and the company's technology is also in the leading position in the industry.
2. Personnel composition: mainly technical and production personnel. In 2020, employees will grow rapidly, mainly based on good expectations for business development, and will also bring greater expenses to the company. The company's per capita income is 600,000 yuan, and the per capita profit is 67,000 yuan, which is at a medium level among peers.
3. Institutional shareholding: The top ten tradable shareholders include two foreign investors and two private placements, which are recognized by mainstream funds.
4. Shareholder's responsibility (financing and dividends): It has been listed for nearly 2 years, and the dividends are quite satisfactory.
Three. Financial analysis score: 75
1. Balance sheet (key subject): The company has abundant cash, reasonable accounts receivable and a substantial increase in inventory, which should be caused by the company's stocking for major customers. As long as there is no problem in contract execution, a substantial increase in inventory represents an improvement in performance. The projects under construction are growing steadily and are in an orderly expansion period. The company capitalized some R&D expenses, but the R&D expenditure of RMB 3,654,380+0,000 also gave the details of R&D projects, and the information was well disclosed. Interest-bearing liabilities are less than 300 million yuan, and the debt repayment pressure is small; With the substantial increase of contractual liabilities and the rapid growth of inventory, it is estimated that the company has a full order in hand, a debt ratio of about 42% and a healthy overall asset structure.
2. Income statement (key subjects): 202 1 The income increased rapidly in the first three quarters, but the expenses also increased rapidly. It is estimated that the revenue in 20265438 will be+26.4 million yuan, up by 3 1. 14% year-on-year, the net profit will be135 million yuan, up by 26.06% year-on-year, and the share payment fee will be 54.44 million yuan. After excluding share-based payment fees, 202 1. Based on the company's sufficient orders, revenue and net profit are expected to maintain rapid growth in 2022.
3. Analysis of main financial indicators: After listing, the company's return on net assets dropped sharply, and 202 1 rose sharply. At present, the company's business has grown rapidly, and the debt ratio has also risen sharply. It is expected that the return on net assets will increase significantly in the next few years. Overall, the gross profit margin is declining, and 202 1 has stabilized and rebounded. The core is greater competitive pressure. The net profit has been declining for three consecutive years, and the expense ratio remains high. The growth of net profit depends entirely on the growth of revenue. With the rapid growth of new products and new markets in the next few years, there may be some room for improvement.
Four. Growth and valuation analysis score: 70
1. Growth: The smart detection market has great growth prospects, and emerging application fields are rapidly improving. As an industry leader in sub-sectors, the company has outstanding technological competitive advantages and is expected to exceed the average growth rate of the industry in the future.
2. Valuation level: Based on the continuous decline in the proportion of the company's consumer electronics business, the proportion of emerging application markets has increased, and the cyclical nature has weakened, giving the company a valuation price-earnings ratio of 30-40 times.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) investment logic and risk warning
1, investment logic: (1) Consumer electronics industry demand recovery; (2) Emerging application markets such as semiconductors, lithium batteries and photovoltaics are growing rapidly; (3) The company has outstanding technological leading edge and sufficient orders in hand.
2. Core competitiveness: (1) brand and scale advantages; (2) technological and innovative advantages; (3) Talent advantage.
3. Risk warning: (1) downstream demand fluctuation risk; (2) The risk of increased competition and decreased gross profit margin; (3) Inventory impairment risk; (4) Customer concentration risk.
Overall evaluation of the company by intransitive verbs (total score 73.25)
Founded in 13, with excellent technical accumulation and R&D strength, the company has become the leading optical intelligent detection equipment in China. In the past, more than 80% of the company's business was concentrated in the consumer electronics field. In 20021year, the business in the fields of semiconductors, photovoltaics and lithium batteries showed explosive growth, and the proportion of consumer electronics business dropped below 50%. The company also successfully got rid of the electronic cycle and contrarian industry trends. Domestic semiconductor, photovoltaic and lithium battery production lines are still expanding. Once the demand cycle of consumer electronic products accelerates, the industry is expected to grow rapidly. By then, the domestic substitution trend is good, and the future growth trend of the industry is good. The company has sufficient orders on hand, and the amount of 202 1 contract liabilities and inventory has increased substantially. It is expected that the company will also have a good growth expectation in 2022, but it also needs to focus on the downside risk of gross profit margin caused by intensified competition in the industry.
Rating standards: AAA 85, AA: 77-84, A: 70-76; BBB:60-69，BB:55-59，B:50-54； CCC and below 49
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