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Through sales forecast, we can strengthen the plan, reduce blindness and obtain better economic benefits.
The methods of sales revenue forecast mainly include time series method, causal analysis method and cost-volume-profit analysis method.
Time series method is to calculate and analyze the actual data in the past few periods in time order to determine the forecast value of product sales revenue in the forecast period. Due to different calculation procedures, this method can be divided into historical period (quarterly) average method, rolling (or weighted) average method and radix plus average trend method.
Causality (correlation) analysis is to predict the development trend of things in the planning period by using the causality developed inside things and focusing on the role of external factors that affect the development and change of things.
This method is generally suitable for enterprises with soaring sales.
Cost-volume-profit analysis is based on dividing costs into variable costs and fixed costs. According to the internal relationship among sales costs, sales volume and profits, assuming that both of them are known, it infers another factor to seek the best scheme.
Using this method, we can not only predict the sales volume and sales revenue of the breakeven point, but also predict the sales volume and sales revenue needed to achieve the profit target.
Sales revenue forecast refers to the prediction and calculation of product sales revenue in the forecast period according to the past sales situation and the investigation of future market demand, which is used to guide the business decision-making and production and sales activities of enterprises. Through sales forecast, we can strengthen the plan, reduce blindness and obtain better economic benefits.
budget
Forecast and budget are two different categories, but they are closely related. The result of prediction is to get the predicted value, and the purpose of budget is to get the budget table. The former is a mathematical category, while the latter is a financial category. The former provides technical support for the latter and basic materials for the realization of the latter's goals.
element task
To do a good job in forecasting sales revenue, we must first do a good job in related basic work. The basic work of sales revenue forecast mainly includes the following aspects:
1, determine the forecast object.
The object of prediction is the specific element of prediction. The forecast objects of sales revenue mainly include sales quantity, sales structure and sales unit price. Because of the different forecast objects, the required data and the specific methods used are not the same. Therefore, in order to make the prediction effective, it is necessary to determine the prediction object first.
2, a clear forecast time
The forecast time includes two aspects: the time to implement the forecast and the time covered by the forecast period. Generally speaking, the time to implement the forecast should usually be arranged before making the sales plan, so as to provide the basis for making the plan. The coverage time of the forecast period needs to be determined according to the purpose of the forecast. If the purpose of the forecast is to prepare the annual plan and annual profit forecast, the forecast period usually covers one year. If the purpose of forecasting is to evaluate the development trend of enterprise sales, then the forecasting period should cover a relatively long time, such as 3 years, 5 years and so on. In addition, when determining the coverage period of the forecast period, we should also consider the stability of the environment and the adequacy of data. If the environment is stable and the data is sufficient, the coverage period can be relatively longer, otherwise it should not be too much to ensure the relative accuracy and reliability of the forecast.
Step 3 Collect relevant information
Relevant data of sales revenue forecast include: (1) historical data, that is, the historical output, sales volume, structure and price of the enterprise. (2) Potential data, mainly including internal capabilities and the development capabilities of external enterprises. (3) Environmental change forecast data, including changes in the internal environment of the enterprise and changes in the external market environment.
step
Prediction should generally be carried out according to the following steps:
① Forecast sales revenue. Sales revenue forecast is the key of enterprise revenue forecast, which is based on business strategy analysis, accounting analysis and financial analysis, and should be consistent with the past performance of the enterprise and the historical situation of the industry. From the statistical analysis, few enterprises can surpass their competitors in the growth rate for a long time, and the sales growth rate of most enterprises is close to the industry growth rate after a long time. If the growth rate of enterprises is much higher than the industry average and lasts for a long time, we should pay attention to the rationality test. These are not only the work that needs to be done in the process of prediction, but also the basic points or starting points of inspection.
(2) forecast business projects, such as operating costs, working capital, land, plant and equipment and other fixed assets. Link these projects with sales revenue. The forecast of sales revenue is the premise of other business projects, because other traffic is related to or dependent on sales volume.
③ Forecast non-operating items, such as interest income, interest expenditure, investment in non-affiliated enterprises, profits, etc.
④ Predict the owner's equity. The owner's equity shall be equal to the owner's equity of the previous year plus the net profit and the new shares issued minus the dividend distribution.
⑤ Verification of the relationship between items in the report.