Second, the unsustainability of policies also increases the risks of enterprises. This has been fully reflected in the current real estate industry.
Third, the uncertainty of policy direction will be the most common risk faced by enterprises. Because the government management department has a strong opportunism tendency in the policy economy, it often acts as a "firefighter", which will inevitably lead to erratic and unpredictable policies. This can be seen from the tentative characteristics of macro-control at present. In fact, China has been recognized as the region with the highest investment risk coefficient in the world.
Risk of uncertain policy trends
Judging from the current situation, different types of enterprises face different specific policy risks under the background of policy economy, so they have different coping styles. What do you mean by a few happy families and a few sad families? The root causes are mainly as follows:
First of all, for state-owned enterprises, the current policy risks mainly include the risk of "merger" and the risk brought by the internal reform of monopoly enterprises. The merger of state-owned assets in the name of "competition with foreign capital", such as the merger and reorganization of Beijing Ershang Group and Ocean Real Estate, has helped state-owned enterprises to achieve cross-industry and cross-regional expansion with the help of the east wind of "merger", and then formed a new state-owned economic network in some important market fields. For the risks brought by the internal reform of monopoly enterprises, the firm position of "biological son" makes the resistance of state-owned enterprises undiminished. It is a typical case that the power system reform has been unable to move for three and a half years.
Secondly, for private enterprises, the uncertainty of policy direction is the most important policy risk. There are three common countermeasures: one is active participation and the other is passive withdrawal. For example, after the private enterprise Guangyu Group invested more than 50 million yuan, it was finally forced to stop investing because of the railway benefit distribution system, thus making the first Chang Qu railway built by private capital return to state monopoly. Similarly, Dezhong Company, which won the 30-year operation right of Bai Peng Railway in Sichuan last year, was forced to fall into the dilemma of "adding 65.438 billion yuan of investment" because of a document issued by Chengdu Water Conservancy Bureau. The second is to look on coldly and wait for its change. For example, in 2005, the Ministry of Railways launched 20 joint-venture railway projects, expecting the participation of private capital, but only 2.5 billion of the 44 billion equity investment was private capital. It can be seen that the uncertainty of policy makes most private capital choose to wait and see. The third is to take advantage of policy loopholes and speculate. China's version of this "cat and mouse", especially housing enterprises. The real estate industry has a heavy tax burden, and enterprises use foreign preferential policies to turn themselves into foreign enterprises and avoid taxes reasonably.
Finally, for foreign investment, the main policy risk is the 180 degree turn of policy attitude. Foreign capital has had a hard time this year. The emergence of the policy inflection point from "attracting foreign investment" to "restricting foreign investment" has made them fully aware of the policy risks. However, judging from some immediate reactions made by foreign capital at present, there is still a lack of psychological preparation for the sudden policy shift. The hasty reactions such as the larger foe, accelerating the beach rush and external pressure can basically be classified as conditioned reflex after a blow.
Strong policies and weak enterprises
On the other hand, policy risks are more likely to mislead enterprises, making enterprises take some destructive ways to avoid risks, and thus have to take risks and embark on the wrong path of "doing nothing."
First of all, policy risks will force enterprises to transform. Because the policy risk coefficient even exceeds the market risk, the focus of enterprises may shift from production and sales to the study of policy situation, thus spending more energy on how to play the game with policies, thus causing the distortion of enterprise behavior.
Secondly, enterprises will increase contact with decision makers. Enterprise managers will be busy looking for the mayor instead of the market, which greatly increases the political transaction cost of enterprises; On the other hand, "rent-seeking" will spread rapidly.
Thirdly, enterprises may also establish corresponding hedging mechanisms to resolve policy risks, which will make the "cat and mouse" games such as identity confirmation and fake foreign investment repeat themselves.
Finally, once the transaction costs paid by enterprises to prevent policy risks exceed the profits earned by enterprises, it is not excluded that enterprises, especially foreign-funded enterprises, will take the practice of "voting with their feet" to quit the game pattern and seek market and investment highlights from other emerging countries. This is the worst outcome.
Generally speaking, in the era of policy economy, except state-owned enterprises, enterprises and policies are basically in a completely unequal position. Strong policy, holding the power of life and death of enterprises; And the enterprise is weak, even collective aphasia. However, as the efficiency of policy intervention is getting lower and lower, the old-fashioned regulation mode is becoming more and more unsuitable for the increasingly complex and changeable economic situation. Public policy, which is characterized by choosing the greatest common denominator and reaching a balance as much as possible after exchange and dialogue, may become the path choice to replace policy economy. Only by conducting an open dialogue on a platform can we end the asymmetry in reality and make life easier for enterprises, at least they have a complaint object and place.