China is building a new development model based on expanding domestic demand. Although China has a population of 65.438+0.4 billion, even excluding the epidemic factors, the consumption growth rate has gradually slowed down in recent years. This phenomenon may be caused by the decline of residents' purchasing power. The decline in purchasing power is first reflected in urban middle-income groups, and then the sluggish consumption will be gradually transmitted to production, circulation, sales and other departments, and the employment and income of low-and middle-income people will be affected, further affecting consumption. Although there are no obvious signs of contraction in China at present, there is pressure.
This pressure comes from real estate. By dividing the median house price of a city by the median annual household income, the local family housing affordability can be calculated. According to the international general statement, the ratio of house price to income is between 3 and 6 times. If housing loans are considered, the proportion of housing consumption in residents' income should be within 30%.
A report by Macroeconomic Research Group of China Academy of Social Sciences 20 16 shows that the ratio of house price to income is 33.2 times in Beijing, 310.9 times in Shanghai and 33.5 times in Shenzhen. Second-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Qingdao and Nanjing are also as high as 15.7 times, 13.2 times and 18.3 times respectively. According to the calculation of Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, in 2020, the average house price-income ratio of 100 cities in China is 13.2.
In 2020, the leverage ratio of the residential sector in China will be as high as 72.5%, mainly mortgage, and the mortgage interest rate in China is also at a high level internationally. This shows that real estate has highly squeezed the consumption power of the residential sector. The abnormally high housing price is the product of high economic growth and arbitrage speculation. When the economic growth slows down, the pressure on the housing sector will increase.
The impact of high housing prices on consumption is not only reflected in increasing the household debt burden, but also greatly pushing up consumer prices. China's population is highly concentrated in cities, and high housing prices will also push up the rent of commercial real estate, increase commercial costs and make prices exceed the reasonable consumption level of local income level. People often complain about "third-tier cities, fourth-tier wages and second-tier consumption", which shows the abnormal relationship between income and prices.
According to the research report of Swiss bank, coffee prices in Shanghai and Beijing are higher than those in developed cities such as new york and Geneva. It was also found that the prices of many goods and services in China exceeded those in western developed countries. One of the important reasons is that the rental cost of shops in China is high, while the labor force in the west is expensive, which shows that the current distribution tends to capital income rather than labor income. For example, the market price of watermelon in first-tier cities is 10 times of the wholesale price of the place of origin, but the income of producers and salespeople is low.
Affected by the epidemic and other factors, when the economic growth slows down, there are certain uncertainties in employment and income. Mortgage repayment and daily consumption are rigid expenditures, which will lead many people to start to tighten their belts and reduce consumption. The housing expenditure of most families far exceeds 30%, and it is almost impossible for the younger generation to buy a house on their own income. China's current income classification lists the monthly income above 654.38+100000 yuan as the highest income group, without giving full consideration to the life of first-and second-tier cities and consumption cost.
The biggest obstacle to expanding domestic demand is that excessive housing expenditure and rent push up consumer prices, which will weaken the purchasing power of middle-income groups. One way to solve the problem is to increase the income growth rate and control the house price and price at the same time. But at present, increasing income needs to improve economic efficiency, which is difficult to achieve in the short term. Another way is to reduce land rent and its proportion in residents' expenditure, but it also involves financial risks and local financial problems.
China is planning to expand the proportion of middle-income groups, increase the income of low-income groups, and form an olive-shaped distribution structure. The key is to improve the consumption power of middle-income groups in cities and towns, thus creating more jobs, increasing the income of low-income groups and expanding the proportion of middle-income groups. At present, this cycle is hindered by real estate factors. At present, the government of China is vigorously developing rental housing to solve the housing difficulties and high housing costs of young people, which can effectively alleviate the pressure of housing prices on the housing expenditure of the younger generation, and explore ways to cut off real estate and hinder domestic circulation.