[Editor] Fundamental Analysis Project of Listed Companies [1]
What items and contents should investors study and analyze in fundamental analysis? They are:
Analysis of company's financial statements
Analysis of the company's industry
Company product and market analysis
Analysis of Enterprise Culture and Management Quality
The company's field trip
[Editor] First, analyze the company's financial statements.
According to the regulations of the China stock market regulator, listed companies should provide annual reports, interim reports and quarterly reports every year. When analyzing the financial statements of listed companies, investors should pay attention to the following important technical indicators and items:
(1) P/E ratio of listed companies
P/E ratio = price per share/earnings per share
This is an important index that investors in the stock market pay attention to, which represents the price investors pay for the company's earnings per share in the market. For example, the company's P/E ratio is higher than the average P/E ratio of the stock market, indicating that investors are optimistic about the company's future growth, and vice versa. The company's P/E ratio is also an index to evaluate stock speculation and bubble composition. If the P/E ratio is high and exceeds the growth of the stock, it is the speculative operation of the banker and the follower. At this point, investors should leave the stock to prevent falling into the long trap of bookmakers and followers.
(2) Earnings per share
Earnings per share = net profit/total share capital
Earnings per share is the most important index to evaluate the financial and profitability of listed companies. It embodies the company's management ability, management ability and the ability to repay shareholders. This index can be used to evaluate the growth of a company year by year, and can also be compared with other companies to find out the business gap between companies.
It is necessary to understand and study the composition of net profit of listed companies. The profits of listed companies include main business profits, investment income, non-operating income and other business profits. Only the profit from the main business is an important factor that determines the long-term stable development of the company. Buying and selling stocks, asset replacement, government subsidies, tax refund and reduction within a period of time, investment income from the disposal of fixed assets and other non-operating income cannot represent the company's ability to continue operations and profitability. If the profit of a company's main business income is less than 50% of the total profit for a long time, then the company's profitability and long-term investment value are questionable.
Guard against financial statement traps and false profits of listed companies. This is because the earnings per share of listed companies will have dozens of times impact on the company's share price. Just like the lever in mechanics, the length of one end of the lever is the price-earnings ratio of listed companies. A listed company with a P/E ratio of 30 and a net profit per share of 1 yuan can sell its share price to 30 yuan. Many listed companies and bookmakers use this price-earnings ratio lever to make waves in the stock market, engage in false asset restructuring and control the stock price. For example, tradable shares (excluding the total share capital of non-tradable shares) are 6,543.8 billion shares of listed companies. Due to years of losses, it entered the ST industry, and its share price fell to 5 yuan per share. In the second year, the company obtained the parent company's profit 1 100 million yuan through related party transactions, and this year, the profit per share reached 65,438+0 yuan. After the listed company made a profit of 654.38 billion yuan, the parent company joined hands with the banker to play the concept of "reorganization". They had bought 50 million shares of tradable shares in the stock market before extracting 654.38 billion yuan in profits. At this time, a listed company with a profit of 1 100 million yuan reflected in the financial statements of that year that the company had "turned losses into profits" and "earned" 1 yuan per share. Bankers and followers joined hands with listed companies to raise the share price from 5 yuan to 30 yuan. When the bookmakers, their followers and the parent company sell the 50 million chips, their investment income in the stock market will reach 654.38+0.25 billion yuan. This huge income far exceeds the profit of 1 100 million yuan drawn by the parent company for free. It will be a serious mistake for investors to buy the shares of this listed company only based on the increase of net profit, and will eventually fall into the report trap of listed companies.
Profit packages and traps in financial statements can be reflected in the following aspects:
Listed companies can legally use accounting policies to increase profits and reduce profits. If we change the depreciation rate of the company's fixed assets, extend or reduce the depreciation rate, we can reduce depreciation expenses, reduce costs and increase profits, and vice versa. The handling of accounts receivable, bad debts and bad debts of listed companies can also be used to adjust the company's profits. For example, low valuation and high valuation of product inventory and raw material inventory are also means for listed companies to increase or decrease profits. Generally speaking, listed companies borrow a huge amount of money, and capitalization of loan interest becomes a means to control profits. The huge write-off in accounting accounts can confirm the company's future losses in advance and postpone the current losses. In short, there are many names to adjust the company's profits through accounting policies. Investors should keep their eyes open and beware of being fooled.
Listed companies can change their profits through related party transactions. Their common method is to cooperate with the parent company and related subsidiaries to invest, and finally achieve the purpose of rights issue and affect the stock price. The related purchase and sale business can adjust the profit by transferring the cost of production, supply and sales. Related asset leasing and capital lending are also important means to control profits.
Local government support and financial subsidies can increase the company's profits. In order to make some companies meet the listing standards and share allotment standards of listed companies, and to get rid of the "hat" of ST and PT for listed companies, local governments have increased their profits by means of financial subsidies, interest reduction, tax reduction and land resources transfer at low prices.
(III) Distribution of dividends per share
Dividend distribution per share is an important index to evaluate the return of listed companies to shareholders. Dividend distribution includes cash dividends, bonus shares and rights issue, and shareholders gain the appreciation of their investment from these returns. Although some companies make profits every year, they never return them to shareholders. The investment value of these companies will be greatly discounted, and investors had better stay away. The distribution of dividends per share should also be compared vertically and horizontally to tap its investment value. Company stocks with increasing returns every year are the first choice for long-term investment.
(4) Net assets per share
Net assets per share = year-end shareholders' equity/total share capital
Net assets per share reflect the capital expansion ability of listed companies. The annual increase of net assets per share shows that listed companies are expanding and vice versa.
(5) P/B ratio
P/B ratio = price per share/net assets per share
The price-to-book ratio relates the stock price to the net assets per share. The higher the P/B ratio, the better the assets. High-tech stocks, IT industries and emerging industries all have high P/B ratios.
(6) Return on net assets
Return on net assets = net profit/average shareholders' equity
Return on net assets is an important index to evaluate the profitability of listed companies. The higher the return on net assets, the stronger the profitability of assets and the higher the return on investment.
(7) Cost rate
Cost rate = total profit/total cost.
The cost-expense ratio reflects the profit brought to the company by each expenditure 1 yuan. For investors, the higher the index, the higher the income.
(8) Net profit from sales
Net profit from sales = net profit/sales revenue
Net profit from sales reflects the net profit brought to the company by every 65,438+0 yuan sales revenue, and evaluates the income level of sales revenue. The higher the index, the stronger the company's sales ability.
(9) Current ratio
Current ratio = current assets/current liabilities
The current ratio indicates how many current assets are used as repayment guarantee per 1 yuan of current liabilities. The higher the ratio, the higher the security of creditors. However, this ratio is too high, indicating that the asset utilization rate of listed companies is low and the liquidity is seriously idle. The general flow ratio is around 2. The proportion of listed companies is different in different industries, and commercial companies can be low.
(10) accounts receivable turnover rate
Accounts receivable turnover rate = sales revenue/average accounts receivable
The higher the turnover rate of accounts receivable, the shorter the average accounts receivable cycle and the faster the capital recovery. Otherwise, the funds of listed companies will stay in accounts receivable too much, which will affect the normal turnover of funds.
(1 1) Debt ratio
Debt ratio = total liabilities/total assets
The debt ratio reflects the insurance degree of debt repayment. From the creditor's point of view, the higher the ratio, the worse the ability to repay debts. But for investors, the high debt ratio shows that when the capital profit rate of listed companies is greater than the interest rate paid by loans, the profits earned by shareholders will increase.
(12) cash ratio
Cash ratio = cash balance/cash liabilities
The cash ratio directly reflects the short-term solvency of enterprises and is also profitable capital. Excessive cash ratio will reduce the profitability of enterprises. If the new shares are listed, the cash ratio of the newly listed companies is very high, which has remained at an excessive level for a long time, indicating that cash has not been invested in new projects.
[Editor] Third, the analysis of the company's industry.
(1) industry division
The analysis of the industry in which the company is located should include two aspects: first, the overall analysis of the industry in which the listed company is located; The second is the analysis of the current situation of the industry in which listed companies are located.
The industry analysis of listed companies is very important for long-term investment. The present situation and future development trend of the industry have great influence on the listed companies in this industry. When an industry is in the overall growth period, there is great room for future development, and all listed companies in this industry have good performance and great room for development. For example, the communication industry, computer software industry and high-tech industry in Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets, the overall performance of the company is higher than other industries.
In the development of China's national economy, industrial division of labor has its unique characteristics. It is divided according to the primary, secondary and tertiary industries.
The primary industry is mainly agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, sideline, fishery and agricultural population development industries, collectively referred to as agriculture.
The secondary industry is mainly manufacturing, electric power, textile, petrochemical, mining, steel, construction, paper making, printing and so on. , collectively referred to as the industry.
The tertiary industry mainly includes finance and insurance, transportation, communication and postal services, commerce, education and culture, radio and television, restaurants and hotels. , collectively referred to as the service industry.
The stock market is divided into agriculture, industrial manufacturing, commerce, transportation, tourism, network telecommunications, high technology, household appliances, finance, chemical industry, petroleum, building materials, medicine, textiles, foreign trade, bioengineering, real estate, automobiles, general categories, food processing, iron and steel metallurgy, electric power industry, paper printing, software, computers and so on.
(2) Classification of industry growth
Every industry has four development periods: formation period, growth period, stability period and decline period. The declining and declining industries are called sunset industries; Industries in the period of formation and growth are called sunrise industries. When the market starts from the bottom, investors had better choose the stocks in the sunrise industry and not enter the stocks in the sunset industry.
The division of sunrise industry and sunset industry is relative, which is limited by time and region. The sunset industry in one country may be the sunrise industry in other countries. For example, the highway construction in the United States decided not to build new ones several years ago, and the industries related to highway construction are also in the sunset period, while the highway construction in China is in the sunrise period. For another example, the automobile industry in the United States is already in the sunset period of decline, while the automobile industry in China is still in the sunrise period of rise. One period is a sunrise industry, and another period may become a sunset industry. Fifty years ago, China's textile and steel industries were in the rising sunrise period, but now they are in the declining sunset period.
Every industry has enterprises in the rising sunrise period and enterprises in the falling sunset period. For example, the textile industry in China is in the sunset period of decline, while enterprises adopting new technologies, new processes and new materials are in the sunrise period of rise. For example, textile enterprises adopting nanotechnology are in the formative stage. Once nanotechnology is first applied to China's textile industry, China's textile industry may once again be in the rising sunrise period. The application of new technologies, new processes and new materials can not only change the situation of enterprises themselves, but also change the situation of the whole industry.
[Editor] Fourth, the company's products and market analysis.
(1) Market share analysis of the company's products
The market share of products should include two aspects: first, the market share of products refers to the market share of company products in similar products; Second, it refers to the market coverage of products, and also refers to the coverage and distribution of products in various regions. Combined analysis of the two can get the following four situations:
Market share and market coverage are relatively high. This shows that the company's product sales and distribution occupy an advantageous position in the same industry, and the products have strong competitiveness.
High market share and low market coverage. This shows that the company's products are very popular and competitive in a certain region, but they lack a large-scale promotion sales network.
Low market share and high market coverage. This shows that the company's sales network is strong, but the product competitiveness is weak.
Market share and market coverage are very low. This shows that the company's products are not competitive and the future of the products is problematic.
(2) Variety analysis of the company's products
Variety analysis of the company's products refers to whether the company's products are complete, the number of varieties held in the same industry, the life cycle of these varieties in the market and the market share analysis of each variety. For example, in the TV industry, the variety of analog TV has been declining, and large-screen digital TV and wall-mounted TV will replace analog TV. A TV production company without new varieties will become a "past tense". Among large-screen digital TV and wall-mounted TV, large-screen LCD wall-mounted digital TV will become the mainstream of the market. In the large-screen LCD wall-mounted digital TV, the varieties integrated with computers will once again become the mainstream.
(3) product price analysis
Product price analysis refers to the price comparison between the products produced by our company and similar products produced by other companies. For example, whether the product price is high or low, whether the product is competitive and so on. At the same time, we should also analyze the price of products and the affordability of consumers, as well as the changes in supply and demand and the market caused by the changes in product prices.
(4) the sales ability of products
It mainly investigates the sales channels, sales networks, sales personnel, sales strategies, sales costs and sales performance of listed companies. The cost of the sales link greatly affects the company's profit. Although listed companies will invest a lot of money in the initial stage of establishing sales network, they can reduce the cost of intermediate links in future operations, thus increasing the profits of enterprises, but at the same time the management expenses will also increase greatly. If you sell products through another company's network, you must give up a certain profit space to the sales company, so the management cost is greatly reduced. These two sales methods have their own advantages and disadvantages, which should be comprehensively compared and analyzed.
(5) Supply analysis of raw materials and key parts of the company
The supply of raw materials and key parts of the company is the same as the sales of products. There are also two situations: one is that the upstream raw materials and key components of the product are supplied and produced by themselves. Its advantage is that the supply of raw materials and key components is stable, and this part of the profits is obtained by the company alone. However, its disadvantages are long front, increased initial investment, increased management cost and poor product risk resistance. In another case, raw materials and key components are supplied and produced by specialized raw materials companies, and the companies give up part of their profits. These two models have their own advantages and disadvantages. For example, the mode of TV production is that the picture tube is independently produced by another manufacturer and supplied to the host manufacturer. Due to the continuous development of technology, with the development of kinescope to LCD and super-large screen, the production line of kinescope manufacturers will be greatly changed, while the production line of main engine manufacturers will be very small, so the production line of traditional vacuum kinescope manufacturers will face the risk of scrapping.
(6) Research and analysis of intellectual property rights of company products.
Whether the products of listed companies have independent intellectual property rights is a very important indicator, which can measure the technical gold content of products. Listed companies with independent intellectual property rights have high profits and stable sources, and will become the leader of this industry. Many home appliance manufacturers in China are using the intellectual property rights of foreign companies. The profit of home appliance industry depends on large-scale production and labor exchange, and the overall profit is low because of the lack of independent intellectual property rights.
Independent intellectual property rights are the basis for the development of listed companies and the guarantee for stabilizing profit sources. A listed company without independent intellectual property rights, no matter how high its existing profits are, will not last long. Listed companies without independent intellectual property rights are not suitable for long-term investment.
[Editor] V. Analysis of Corporate Culture and Management Quality
Corporate culture refers to the rules, values, outlook on life and their own code of conduct gradually formed by all employees in long-term production and business activities. The analysis of corporate culture should focus on the guiding, condensing, encouraging and restraining functions of corporate culture to all employees.
The analysis of management quality should include the analysis of the cultural quality and professional level of the company's management, the internal coordination and communication ability, the personal experience, work experience and cultural level of the company's management leaders, and the pioneering spirit of the company's management. A good management manages a company, and the company will undergo great changes every year. The final result should be reflected in the changes of the company's growth, main income, main profit and earnings per share.
[Editor] 6. Company field trip
Field visits to companies are particularly important for long-term investment. For small and medium-sized retail long-term investors, due to limited funds and strength, field visits are more difficult. But this work must be completed. For example, a listed company loses money every year, is insolvent and stops production, but its stock is sought after by investors in the stock market and keeps rising. This content and strange circle have been reported by the media many times, exposing many false information of listed companies. Long-term investors must personally inspect the company's current situation, company's production and sales, company culture, company management's ability, company's rules and regulations, production scale, production efficiency, production order, actual implementation of investment funds, accuracy of company information disclosure and authenticity of financial statements before investing. Before investing and making decisions, investment institutions and funds have specialized institutions to conduct comprehensive field visits to listed companies. If small and medium-sized retail investors don't have enough funds and strength to do the survey, you can use several small and medium-sized retail investors to unite and send representatives to the listed companies to do the survey. You can also investigate which listed companies the fund has invested in for a long time, and follow the fund for long-term investment according to your own judgment and analysis.
Generally, trading software like Great Wisdom can see the company's fundamentals by pressing F 10 after selecting a stock.