Why is China's demographic dividend disappearing?

65438+reported on February 8? On February 6th, 65438, the website of Hong Kong South China Morning Post published an article by Qing Xu, a senior investment manager of Hong Kong Yu Kai Capital Co., Ltd., entitled "China must innovate now, otherwise it will lose its economic competitiveness". The article stated that the rapid rise of China as the second largest economy in the world was based on abundant cheap labor and capital, a huge export market for cheap goods from China and a desperate growth model at the expense of environment and social welfare. Now that the fruit hanging in the lower part has been picked, there is a problem with the old engine of economic development.

The article lists the main challenges, including the disappearance of demographic dividend, the aggravation of social aging, the increase of labor cost and management cost, etc.

Fundamentally speaking, if China wants to solve all the above challenges, avoid the "middle income trap", realize the goals of "building a well-off society in an all-round way" in 2020 and "building a socialist modern country" in 2050, and transform into an innovation-driven high value-added market, it is not just an option, but an inevitable choice.

Fortunately, China has the ability to climb the peak of innovation, and it has human capital to promote R&D. Although the total labor force has shrunk, the number of college graduates majoring in natural science and engineering has surged, which stems from the expansion of universities brought about by the reform of higher education. From 2065438 to 2007, China University graduated nearly 8 million people, setting a historical record. Public and private R&D funds have also increased rapidly, and the government's fiscal policy also supports research and development. In addition, the regulatory environment and market ecosystem also tend to be favorable.

According to the article, China's disadvantages often turn into "blessings". For example, the lack of service and logistics infrastructure has stimulated the growth of e-commerce, while the low penetration rate of credit cards has led to the success of Alipay and WeChat payment.

But equally important, the size of the China market is another important factor. In this huge market, start-ups can take shape quickly. Through various efforts of R&D and innovation, China's scientific and technological output has caught up with both quantity and quality. The growth rate of scientific works published in China far exceeds that of developed countries; Since 20 15, the number of patents it has obtained has also attracted attention.

The article believes that a large number of challenges still exist. It is important that China still lacks basic research, but it will take time to produce practical results. In 20 13 years, R&D personnel in China only accounted for 0. 19% of the total labor force, far behind Japan (1.02%) and the United States (0.87%). In addition, the institutional structure of universities and scientific research institutions is not perfect for research work.