The next decade will be golden decade with rapid development of smart electricity. In recent 1-2 years, the capital market has fully priced this, and a number of big cows have emerged in the new energy industry chain from complete vehicles to spare parts. However, we think that the market pricing of Fuyao, a leading automobile glass enterprise, is insufficient, mainly based on three aspects;
First, Fuyao's global market share is expected to further increase;
Second, new energy drives skylight glass to accelerate penetration, and dimming glass opens up new space;
Thirdly, after acquiring Sam and entering the aluminum decorative strip business, it is expected to play a synergistic role with automobile glass in product assembly supply;
From the development course of Fuyao Glass in recent ten years, the expansion of overseas production capacity is an important reason for the company's global market share, and the cost advantage and management advantage are the core competitiveness of the company's expansion. Standing at the moment, we believe that Fuyao will still benefit from the global production capacity layout and efficient production operation management, and further enhance the global market share.
The two core strategies are to restore Fuyao's overseas expansion, coordinate the local industrial chain and support nearby. Fuyao started overseas expansion from 20 1 1, and built Russian and American automobile glass production capacity on 201and 20 14 respectively, supporting customers in Europe and North America nearby.
In terms of upstream and downstream cooperation in the industrial chain, Fuyao acquired the float glass production line of a local company in North America, which was upgraded and put into use, forming a localized cooperation in the industrial chain of the "float-automobile glass" business in North America. 2011-During 2020, the company's overseas business income increased from 3.047 billion yuan to 8.98 billion yuan.
The global automobile glass presents an oligopoly competition pattern. In 2020, the global market share of Saint-Gobain, Fuyao, Asahi Glass and Banyanzi will exceed 80%. Thanks to the global expansion strategy, during 20 1 1-2020, the compound growth rate of Fuyao automobile glass sales will be higher than that of its competitors, and its global market share will increase to 29%.
Different from other competitors, Fuyao focuses on automotive glass tracks, and R&D's investment and capital expenditure are all around automotive glass business, thus establishing an automotive glass moat. Saint-Gobain, Asahi Glass and Banyangzi are mostly integrated suppliers of building materials, electronics and chemical materials, and the revenue of automobile glass business is generally less than 50%.
During the period of 20 1 1-2020, the operating income of Fuyao automobile glass will basically remain above 90%, and the concentration ratio is higher than other competitors. We believe that higher concentration urges the company to continuously strengthen the growth and profitability of automobile and glass business through 1)- integrated capacity building and 2) cost control.
In addition to integrating capacity reduction, the company mainly enhances its cost control ability and improves its management efficiency in the following two ways: 1) controlling the investment rhythm of capital expenditures such as technical renovation and cold repair; 2) Integrate key material suppliers to form a cooperative partnership to ensure the supply stability of core raw materials. Thanks to the layout of the whole industrial chain, the profit margin of Fuyao Glass Automotive Glass business is much higher than that of its peers. In 2020, affected by the epidemic, the pre-tax profit rate will remain at a high level of 65,438+05.6%. Judging from the company's overall profitability, Fuyao Glass's overall management and control ability is even better.
Since 20 15, the company has intensified its cost control, and the sales in the management rate has dropped significantly. In 2020, the sales and management fee of Fuyao Glass will be 65,438+07.8%, which is lower than the levels of Asahi Glass and Ban Yangzi at 20.65,438+0% and 20% respectively.
The second half of 2020 can be regarded as half a year when the marketization of electric vehicles is officially launched. From the domestic situation, the market share of new energy vehicles in passenger cars has increased from 4.86% in 20 19 to more than 9% in February 2020. Last year, the global sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.24 million, accounting for 4. 17%, and the marketization of the industry has been fully opened.
Intelligent acceleration is a remarkable phenomenon of 202 1. From the perspective of investment enterprises and industries, such as Huawei, Apple, Sony, Google, Baidu and other companies. They have begun to invest in the smart car industry on a large scale, and the development of the industry will accelerate significantly in the future.
Fuyao Glass, a traditional component enterprise, will fully benefit from the accelerated development of intelligent electrification. Judging from the latest synchronous development and new car release, HUD and skylight glass are basically standard, and some fuel car industries have begun to make some similar improvements. Automobile glass has developed from standard structural safety parts to functional parts, and with the increase of functions, the added value has been further improved.
The new cars released by 202 1 include Dongfeng, Weilai, SAIC, Geely, Tesla, Porsche and many other domestic and foreign brands. The skylight glass has been basically equipped, and the consumer demand will further improve the transparency of the skylight glass. At the same time, additional functions such as heat insulation, ultraviolet ray isolation, water repellent and graded dimming will be further applied, and the added value will rapidly spread from the original bicycle 700 yuan to more than 2,000 yuan. Some products of automotive glass ASP have exceeded 5,000 yuan, while some models of automotive glass have reached the level of more than 7,000 yuan after using a wider range of functional glass.
In the future, with the improvement of intelligence level, including the application of 5G antenna and projection glass, the value of bicycles still has room for substantial improvement.
The penetration rate of skylight glass in new energy vehicles will increase rapidly. It is estimated that by 2025, more than 80% of new energy vehicles will be equipped with skylight glass. The main reasons are:
1) Bring down the car price corresponding to the skylight glass;
2) The acceptance of sunroof glass by new energy vehicles is improved.
Skylight glass subverts the traditional body design, and the design meets the needs of new energy vehicles for science and technology and futurity, so new energy vehicles have higher acceptance of skylight glass. 202 1,1-May, the skylight glass transmittance of new energy vehicles exceeded 20%. We believe that the skylight glass will be accompanied by the rapid penetration of new energy vehicles, and the penetration rate in new energy vehicles is expected to reach 80% in 2025.
From the perspective of industry barriers, aluminum ornaments have a high threshold, bicycles are rich in value, and the profit rate is 30-40%. The technical difficulties of automobile aluminum ornaments are aluminum anodic oxidation, post-treatment of subsequent closed oxide film and aluminum profile processing. The added value of a bicycle is 800~ 1600 yuan. Due to technical barriers, the gross profit margin can reach more than 40%. Moreover, oligopolistic enterprises monopolize the market, and only a few companies in the world, such as Sam, Dura, Weikawei and Shi Min, can produce automobile aluminum ornaments that meet the requirements of the OEM.
Before the Sam factory changed hands, the sales revenue reached 300 million euros; Dura focuses on the European and American markets, and the revenue of exterior decoration system reaches 2 billion yuan; Jingwei binds FAW-Volkswagen and obtains advanced technology of aluminum trim strips through joint venture. The annual income of exterior trim parts exceeds 3 billion yuan; Shi Min has BMW, GM and Japanese customers, and its strategic focus has shifted from stainless steel to aluminum products, with revenue of nearly 2 billion yuan.
From the perspective of market space, the market prospect of aluminum accessory dismantling industry is huge. Aluminum ornaments meet the requirements of light weight, recyclability, easy coloring and good ductility. The domestic aluminum decorative strip market can reach 6 billion yuan, and the global forecast is 20 billion yuan.
Fuyao Glass 20 19 acquired bankrupt SAM assets at the request of European OEMs, including equipment, materials, finished products, work in process, tooling, etc. The purchase price is 58.82 million euros and the income before bankruptcy is 300 million euros. Fuyao's advantage lies in modular supporting and refined operation. Previously, Sam was the core supplier of Volkswagen Audi in Europe. After the acquisition of Sam, through the integrated layout of automobile glass+aluminum trim+luggage rack, the company solved the industrial problems such as uncoordinated matching, effectively reduced the processing cost of aluminum trim and improved the competitiveness of products.
Fuyao Glass established Tongliao Refined Aluminum through the acquisition of Sanfeng Decoration and technical complementarity, which opened up the upstream and downstream linkage and improved the aluminum decoration industry chain. Thus, the field of automotive supplies will be deeply laid out and a new business growth space will be opened.
In 20 19, the integration of SAM in Europe was completed, and the original 10 factory was merged into two large factories (the other was a small OES factory). Affected by the epidemic, the loss in 2020 was 36.53 million euros, but the profitability was effectively improved after 3Q. In 2020, the loss of 4Q is less than 5 million euros, although it is 20265438+.
Judging from the company's domestic aluminum decorative strip business, it has gradually begun to move towards normal, and Fuqing factory achieved profit for the first time in 2020. According to the overall capacity planning, Fuqing Plant has a capacity of 650,000 units, and Changchun Plant has a capacity of 202 1 0/.35 million units at the end of the year. Together with the original production capacity of 6.5438+0.35 million sets in Europe, the overall production capacity of Fuyao Glass will reach 3.35 million sets by the end of 2002/kloc-0. Under the normal operation of the factory, Suzhou factory will be gradually included in the plan in the future.
We believe that with the improvement of technology, the gradual increase of production capacity and the establishment of new factories, the company's global sales revenue is expected to increase by 6 billion yuan in 2023. From a technical point of view, the profitability of aluminum decorative strips in the future should be no less than that of automobile glass. Fuyao glass aluminum decorative strips business is expected to bring us great surprises in 2023.
Automobile glass and aluminum trim belong to automobile exterior decoration, which can form synergistic effect in production supporting links and customer expansion.
1) production coordination. Automobile glass is adjacent to aluminum trim, so the shape matching and connection angle should be considered when designing the whole vehicle. The supporting production of automobile glass and decorative strips belongs to the expansion of related industrial chains, which can save the links of business re-supporting.
2) Customer collaboration. The downstream customers of automotive glass and aluminum accessories are all vehicle manufacturers, and their business combination is conducive to enriching the customer matrix and expanding the revenue scale.
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The report was prepared by an investment consultant with the assistance of a research assistant. Investment consultant: Bo Huang (registration number: A0740620 120007).