1 The national economic development has entered a period of comprehensive technological innovation, and the investment decisions of state-owned enterprises are facing more opportunities and risks. Strengthening technological innovation, developing high-tech and improving industrial technology level is one of the key points during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period. The state will take a series of important measures to promote the development of high technology and the transformation of high-tech achievements. This is both an opportunity and a challenge for the development of enterprises. On the one hand, the continuous emergence of high-tech achievements will bring more investment opportunities and a broader investment market to enterprises. If enterprises can make the right decisions, they will achieve great success. On the other hand, high-tech investment not only has high returns, but also contains high risks. If the enterprise makes mistakes in decision-making, it will also bring inevitable losses to the enterprise. It can be seen that the difficulty of investment decision-making will increase significantly.
The capital market has developed in depth, and the investment fields of state-owned enterprises have been greatly broadened. Investment is the process of transforming existing assets into various investment products and actual assets in order to obtain expected returns. Therefore, from the meaning of investment itself, it includes financial investment and physical investment (project investment), and China's capital market will continue to develop in the process of standardization in 2 1 century. The investment concept and direction of state-owned enterprises will change significantly, and it is no longer a single investment in production projects, and capital market investment will also constitute an important part of their investment. The investment risk in the capital market is greater, which requires more scientific and rational investment decisions.
The acceleration of international economic integration has brought new horizons to the investment of state-owned enterprises, but also increased the difficulty of decision-making. During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the state will implement the strategy of "going abroad", encourage qualified enterprises to invest and set up factories abroad, and promote the export of domestic resources or cooperative development. China's opening to the outside world will enter a new stage. After China's accession to the WTO, the scope of opening to the outside world will be expanded and the level of opening will be higher. Undoubtedly, this will bring more opportunities for the development of state-owned enterprises, and the investment space and market will be greatly broadened. However, state-owned enterprises will also face more complicated and fierce international market competition, which will be a severe test of decision makers' knowledge, ability and level.
Faced with this new economic background, enterprises are faced with diversified choices in investment decision-making, which objectively requires our state-owned enterprises to strengthen the scientific decision-making to adapt to the changes in the new economic environment. However, there are still many problems in the investment decision-making process of state-owned enterprises, especially the irrational tendency in the decision-making process, which needs to be continuously improved in the reform of state-owned enterprises.
1 Investment decisions tend to be short-term and blind. There are three main reasons for the short-term and blindness of investment decision. First, at present, most state-owned enterprises are in a difficult situation, and more consideration is given to getting rid of difficulties in the short term in the use of funds and the choice of investment projects; Second, it is related to the leadership system and management mode of state-owned enterprises. In order to achieve certain economic goals during their term of office, business leaders often have a short-term investment tendency; Third, it is related to the level and business philosophy of enterprise decision makers, which is manifested in blind pursuit of market hotspots and irrational analysis of market conditions and enterprises' own conditions.
2. State-owned enterprises lack a risk restraint mechanism, and the consideration of risks and costs in investment decisions is unreasonable. At present, in the investment decision-making of state-owned enterprises, the responsibility and restraint mechanism of "who makes the decision and who bears the risk" in line with the market economy has not been established, and some enterprises still have some irrational decision-making behaviors: first, investment projects are not based on scientific cost-benefit analysis, and project selection is subjective and arbitrary; Second, the investment and financing are out of touch, and the borrowed funds (or raised funds) are invested at will; Third, we lack a correct understanding of investment risks, so that we blindly enter some high-risk investment fields when the conditions are not mature. Once the investment fails, it will often bring disastrous consequences to the enterprise.
When making investment decisions, the concept of time value is lacking, so that the investment benefit is not high. When making investment decisions, entrepreneurs must consider the time value, especially analyze the time value of cash flow generated by investment, distinguish cash inflows and outflows at different times, and analyze the time value ratio. Only by establishing the concept of time value can we compare and identify the income gained from investment in different periods, and we can race against time and not waste money. Although this is the basic requirement for the quality of decision makers, this concept is still very lacking for most leaders of state-owned enterprises.
Excessive government intervention makes the investment decision of enterprises highly dependent, which is another manifestation of irrational investment decision. The main reason for this phenomenon is the current enterprise management system in China. At present, the decision-making body of capital management of most state-owned enterprises is still ownership sovereignty, not the enterprise itself. The government and its functional departments often have the decision-making power (directly or indirectly) when exercising the ownership function. In this way, enterprises have to listen to the opinions of the competent departments when making investment decisions. Accordingly, enterprises are more dependent on the competent authorities in the sources of investment funds and the acquisition of investment projects. On the one hand, the above analysis shows that China's state-owned enterprises are facing diversified investment choices in the new economic era, on the other hand, it also shows that the current situation is not optimistic and there are still many irrational behaviors in investment decision-making. In order to realize the scientific investment decision-making of state-owned enterprises, the key lies in the rationalization of enterprises' own behavior, in addition to accelerating the reform of enterprise system and the transformation of government functions.
Second, the rational analysis of investment decisions of state-owned enterprises
1 Correct investment preference is the starting point of rational decision-making. In the choice of investment projects and investment fields, enterprise decision makers should first be influenced by investment preferences, and the factors that produce and form this investment preference mainly include the following aspects:
(1) Expected return on investment. That is, the possible profit level. Enterprises that set foot in this investment field for the first time often have demonstration effect. For example, in the 1990s, the money-making effect of China's household appliances industry and personal computer industry made more enterprises invest heavily in this field.
(2) Social fashion. It often comes from the formation of economic hotspots. When a certain field becomes the focus of public attention, it often makes decision makers have investment impulses. For example, the company's "touching the net" phenomenon in the late 1990s is a typical form.
(3) Expectation of the market. Based on the analysis of economic trend and market forecast, it mainly depends on the confidence of decision makers in the supply and demand, competition and price of the future market.
(4) Enterprise investment decision-making habits. It is not only influenced by the traditional technical conditions of enterprises, but also by the business philosophy, culture and management mode of enterprises.
(5) The level and personal preference of decision makers. When making investment decisions, the main decision makers often have a personal motivation or personal preference, especially for enterprises with a high degree of centralization. For example, "adventurous" decision makers tend to prefer the financial investment field. The investment preference of enterprises is only one or two factors, but once this tendency is formed, it is difficult to change it in a short time. As decision makers, we must clearly understand whether this preference is rational or irrational, because it is the basis that affects scientific decision-making.
2. Rational investment principle is the key to scientific decision-making.
With rational investment motives, we need to master rational investment principles. As a decision-maker, we should not only consider the feasibility of investment, but also consider the economic and social benefits that investment may bring. Specifically, we should grasp the following aspects:
(1) Comprehensive principle of market forecast. "everything is established in advance, and it will be abolished if it is not planned." The correct investment decision is based on the correct forecast, and the correct forecast must be a comprehensive forecast: sufficient information, sufficient comparison and sufficient demonstration. What to do: 1. Understand others: What are others (other enterprises) doing, what will they do, and what is their level? What do others (consumers) need and what will change? Second, know yourself: what you can do and how good you are.
(2) the principle of economic rationality. At least two aspects should be grasped: first, economic feasibility, that is, whether the resources owned by the enterprise can support investment, including people, money, materials and many other aspects. Second, the principle of maximizing economic benefits. Through the comparative analysis of input and output, the comprehensive calculation of cost and price, the level of investment profit is basically determined, and at the same time, it is necessary to consider whether the guarantee conditions for achieving this goal are met.
(3) The principle of giving consideration to social benefits. First of all, we should consider what impact this investment will bring to social and economic development and people's lives. An investment that is conducive to social progress will also give rich feedback to enterprises. At the same time, we should also consider the consequences that will occur when our investment harms social interests, and what measures enterprises can take to make up for and eliminate adverse effects, such as environmental pollution.
(4) the principle of technical feasibility. In the new economic era, any investment decision contains rich technological innovation content, and its investment activities are often unrepeatable, and there is no fixed model to follow in terms of scheme design, planning, investment arrangement, equipment configuration and technology implementation. According to the analysis of examples of technological innovation and development by foreign scholars, the failure rate is one third, and the success rate of exploratory research (i.e. creativity) is only 1% ~ 2%. This means that technology investment is risky, and the higher the content of technological innovation, the higher the risk. Therefore, when making investment decisions, it is necessary to analyze the type of technology used in investment projects, that is, mature technology or the latest technology, and whether there is corresponding human resources guarantee in the process of technology implementation.
Rationalization of investment decision-making process is the guarantee of scientific decision-making.
Investment decision-making process is a complicated process. If the investment decision is made under the simple conditions of "slapping the head" or "taking it for granted" or "being hot-headed", the result is bound to fail. Similarly, in such a complicated decision-making process, every link should be injected with its reasonable components.
(1) Rational market research. Market research is based on sufficient market information, which is very complicated and difficult to distinguish between true and false. Therefore, the first thing to do is to "get rid of the rough and get the essence, get rid of the false and keep the true". This is a big wave scouring the sand process, which requires patience and care. Second, we should conduct in-depth investigation and study. Although "only trust your own eyes" is a bit extreme, in-depth and meticulous investigation and research is essential.
(2) Rational choice of investment opportunities. When an enterprise has a sum of money, it actually faces many investment opportunities. If you choose and seize the opportunity, you will succeed in the investment. The choice of investment opportunities must first identify the opportunities that appear: which are potential, which are short-term and which are long-term development. Secondly, we should be good at grasping good investment opportunities, which may be fleeting, which requires decision makers to be decisive and repeat without hesitation.
(3) Full feasibility study. This is the most critical link in the decision-making process. Of course, in the feasibility study, market research, technical level research, implementation process operability research and relevant conditions (supporting measures) research are all essential. However, in the feasibility study, two key issues must be analyzed: one is the realization of the goal (that is, the ideal state) and the possible problems in reality. Two, the possible benefits and possible risks, especially the investment in some new technology projects, the risk forecast must be comprehensive and specific.
(4) Evaluation of investment projects. This link is a necessary link to confirm the feasibility of the established investment plan and improve it again. Focus on two aspects: first, the appraiser of the scheme should be experts in all aspects, including market experts, technical experts, experts in economics and sociology. Only in this way can we fully grasp the investment plan. Second, we should grasp the main points of evaluation, because an investment plan cannot be perfect. Third, as a decision maker, the evaluation expert should only explain the scheme itself and should not be misleading, because the analysis should be more rational only when the expert looks at the problem as a foreigner.
(5) Simulation operation of investment scheme. For some investment schemes, if conditions permit, simulation operation can be adopted to find out the problems in the operation process. For example, production process simulation or market simulation can be carried out by computer.
According to the enterprise's own conditions and the characteristics of investment plan, choosing a reasonable decision-making method to generate and form investment plan directly affects the scientificity of decision-making. In the choice of methods, we should pay attention to the following points: First, the knowledge level of the decision-making level. Mainly depends on the knowledge structure and the ability to grasp the plan of the participating decision makers. The second is the complexity and scale of investment projects. Generally speaking, the scheme with small scale and simple investment process has relatively low decision-making requirements and simple methods. Third, the technical level of investment projects. Fourth, the decision-making methods and corporate culture used by enterprises. On the basis of comprehensive investigation of the above factors, each enterprise can choose different decision-making methods for different investments. The following methods can be used for reference:
(1) market demand method. This method is dominated by market demand and is suitable for some investment projects that can be effectively invested in the short term. The following steps can be taken: Step 1: Collect and process market information, and select project information related to enterprises and with potential market demand. Step 2: Analyze several important pieces of information and their own resource conditions, and put forward several most qualified schemes. Step 3: Compare and analyze the investment of several selected schemes. Simple optimization method and volume-cost-profit analysis method can be used to determine an optimal investment plan and implement it.
(2) Expert group decision-making method. Commonly known as think tank decision. Think tanks refer to staff, consultants, all kinds of related professionals, experts and scholars and other professionals other than decision makers, with the purpose of "gathering the strengths of a hundred schools for our use". This decision-making method is suitable for investment projects with long construction period and complicated decision-making, and can be carried out according to the following procedures: the first stage: the enterprise marketing department puts forward the market investigation and analysis report of the project. The second stage: the technical department of the enterprise puts forward the technical feasibility report. The third stage: experts focus on evaluating and proposing investment plans. This stage is the key point, so we should pay attention to the following problems: First, there should be more experts in different disciplines or the same discipline, and the research focus is different; Second, experts should think independently, open their minds, and allow conflicts of opinion during the discussion of the scheme. Third, the argument should be repeated many times, and don't rush to conclusions before the opinions are concentrated. Finally, the decision-making level of the enterprise fully analyzes the expert opinions and confirms the scheme.
(3) Technical condition method. That is, based on the existing technical level, the project is determined by technology. Simply put, it is what kind of ability and what kind of things to do. This method is more suitable for the investment decision of technical projects, especially innovative technologies and proprietary technologies. This decision-making method mainly considers the following aspects:
First, the feasibility of transforming this technology into real product production, especially whether the corresponding production equipment and talent allocation are complete.
Second, does this product represent the future development direction of the market, and how big is the existing market demand and potential market demand?
Third, whether the production cost and expected market price of the project are reasonable. Fourth, there should be phased technical evaluation and technical improvement programs in the investment process. In addition to the above methods, enterprise decision makers can also borrow mathematical models and other methods, which are not listed here. As an enterprise decision-maker, the key to choosing a decision-making method is to have a rational and enlightened attitude and to conform to the reality of enterprises and investment projects.