This catalogue
1. Industry status
2. Industry prospect
3. Market space
4. Relevant listed companies
5. Exclusive core tips
I. Current situation of the industry
1. The cable industry has a higher threshold for the chassis.
On the one hand, compared with the power battery, the BOM cost of the drive-by-wire chassis system is relatively low and the technical requirements are higher. It is expected that car companies will still focus on external procurement. On the other hand, automobile chassis system is related to driving safety, high technical threshold, long development and verification cycle, economies of scale in manufacturing industry, or centralized effect of parts suppliers. Compared with international parts companies, domestic parts suppliers have cost advantages, faster response speed based on electrification/intelligent transformation of independent brands, and can also provide highly customized solutions.
2. Development of intelligent electric vehicle with chassis height matching by wire.
First of all, the battery capacity of electric vehicles is larger, the degree of electrification is higher, and more electronic and electrical equipment can be carried, which also lays the foundation for the chassis by wire. Secondly, the chassis by wire technology is an important part of the bottom control unit of autonomous control ADAS, which depends on the chassis by wire technology. Take autonomous lane change technology as an example. This technology refers to the autonomous lane-changing behavior control technology for vehicles to meet their own driving requirements without driver intervention, which mainly involves environmental awareness unit, network communication unit, autonomous decision-making unit and bottom control unit. The bottom control unit mainly includes drive, brake by wire, automatic transmission, electric power steering/steering by wire, etc.
Second, the industry prospects
1. Relevant planning promotes the development of the drive-by-wire chassis.
In recent years, industry planning has played a prominent role in promoting new energy and intelligent networking, and long-term drive-by-wire chassis is expected to benefit from a period of rapid growth. 20 18 12 "action plan for industrial development of vehicle networking (intelligent networked vehicles)" emphasizes the need to accelerate the research and development and industrialization of intelligent drive, brake-by-wire system, steering-by-wire system and electronic stability system of high-performance vehicles. The "New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (202 1-2035)" from June, 5438 to October, 2020 puts forward the technical framework of "three horizontals and three verticals", emphasizing that the by-wire execution system is the core technology of intelligent network connection. In March of 20021year, the relevant documents clearly pointed out that it is necessary to speed up the research and development of key components such as intelligent (networked) automobile basic technology platform, software and hardware system, intelligent drive-by-wire chassis and intelligent terminal.
2. The penetration of new energy vehicles in China has accelerated, and independent brands have reached the top.
From 202 1, the new energy vehicle market entered a period of rapid development: 202 1, and the new energy vehicle market broke out in China. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the annual sales volume of new energy passenger cars was 3.33 million, up by+168% year-on-year, and the new energy penetration rate reached 15.5%, up by +9.3pct year-on-year. From June to April, 2022, the national sales volume of new energy passenger cars was 1.49 million, which was+1 15% year-on-year, and the new energy penetration rate reached 22.9%, which was+12.6pct year-on-year.
According to Marklines data, among the top 20 new energy vehicles, the proportion of high-end vehicles is gradually increasing, and the trend of high-end has put forward higher requirements for chassis comfort and intelligence. Brands such as Weilai and Tucki also focus on air suspension and other chassis-by-wire technologies. According to the data of the Association, among the top ten OEMs of 202 1 new energy vehicles, independent brands accounted for 9 seats. The pressure of independent brands to reduce costs is stronger, so independent suppliers with sufficient technical reserves and competitive prices have ushered in domestic substitution opportunities.
3. The market potential of the drive-by-wire chassis is great, and domestic products will replace new opportunities.
Several tracks of the chassis by wire have great market potential and domestic substitution opportunities. Steering-by-wire and braking-by-wire have the highest technical threshold, the mass production time is late, the current penetration rate is low, the gap between independent suppliers and overseas suppliers is small, and domestic substitution opportunities are great; Although the suspension by wire was born earlier, the current penetration rate is still low. It is expected that the penetration rate of high-end development of electric vehicles will increase rapidly, and independent suppliers who achieve technological breakthroughs are expected to expand their market share; Throttle-by-wire and shift-by-wire appeared earlier. In recent years, the market penetration rate is higher and the market structure is relatively stable.
Third, market space.
1. Brake by wire
At present, brake-by-wire is in the primary stage of commercialization. With the development of autonomous driving technology, it is expected that the popularity of brake-by-wire will continue to increase, and it is expected to reach 30% in 2026. It is estimated that the market size of China brake-by-wire will reach 20 1 billion yuan in 2026, and the CAGR will reach 49.6% in 2022-2026. In 2026, the global market for by-wire control will reach 55.2 billion yuan, and CAGR will reach 47. 1%.
2. Wire suspension
The domestic air suspension market has just started, and the market space is broad. Assuming that the permeability of passenger car suspension by wire is gradually improved, it will reach 15% in 2025, and the unit price will slowly decrease with the progress of localization, and it will be 8000 yuan in 2025; The permeability of commercial vehicle suspension by wire rises slowly, reaching 9% in 2025, and the unit price increases with the country.
The progress of industrialization is slowly declining, reaching 65,438 yuan+0.65,438 yuan +0.0000 yuan in 2025. It is estimated that the passenger car air suspension market will reach 8 1 100 million yuan in 2022, and the domestic air suspension market will reach 28.8 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of about 52%.
3. Steering by wire
Steer-by-wire steering is more suitable for the needs of advanced automatic driving, so it is more and more used in mass production passenger cars at present, and the penetration rate will increase rapidly. At the same time, the number of lines of steer-by-wire control code is further increased, and redundant safety functions need to be added. It is estimated that the steer-by-wire market of China automobile will increase from 30 1 billion yuan in 2022 to152.5 billion yuan in 2026, and the CAGR will reach 50.0% in four years.
4. Wired shift
As shift-by-wire will gradually become the standard configuration of mainstream cars at home and abroad, it is estimated that the penetration rate of shift-by-wire will reach 55% in 2026, and the unit price will be 400-500 yuan; In 2026, the global shift-by-wire market will reach 22.8 billion yuan, and the CAGR will reach14.5% in 2022-2026; In 2026, the market scale of shift by wire in China will reach 8.3 billion yuan, and the CAGR will reach 16.4% in 2022-2026.
5. Wire throttling
The maturity of the throttle by wire is very high, and it has become the standard configuration of automobiles at home and abroad. It is expected to reach 100% in 2026, and the unit price is around 300 yuan. It is estimated that the global steer-by-wire market will reach 27.6 billion yuan in 2026, and CAGR will reach 2.8% in 2022-2026. In 2026, the market scale of China wire control will reach 10 1 billion yuan, and the CAGR will reach 4.0% in 2022-2026.
Based on the above forecast, combined with the five major areas of wire-controlled chassis, it is estimated that the market scale of wire-controlled chassis in China will reach 82.55 billion yuan in 2026.
Fourth, related listed companies.
Bethel (603596): The company has strong technical strength, fast mass production progress and close cooperation with the main engine factory. The company's EPB products are mature, and the newly developed dual-control electronic parking brake system can greatly reduce the procurement cost of the main engine plant, which has been applied to a variety of new energy vehicles. In 20021year, 83 EPB designated projects were added in Bethel.
Top Group (60 1689): The company can provide customers with EHB+EPS integrated solutions to accelerate the mass production of brake-by-wire and suspension-by-wire products. The company's air suspension is scheduled to be put into production in June 2022. After the new plant is put into production, it can achieve an annual output of 2 million air suspensions, meeting the demand of 500,000 vehicles per year. The company's IBS-PRO intelligent braking system factory is located in Ningbo, and when it is fully put into production, it can reach the I supporting capacity of 500,000 vehicles a year.
Baolong Technology (603 197): The company is committed to intelligent and lightweight products for automobiles. The main products are tire pressure monitoring system (TPMS), automobile sensors, ADAS, active air suspension, automobile metal fittings, valves and balance weights. The company's air suspension products have perfect layout and mature technology, and have obtained several mass production orders.
Zhong Ding Co., Ltd. (000887): The company's business layout is perfect, including air suspension, lightweight chassis, automobile thermal management and sealing system, and relevant technologies are absorbed and transformed through continuous overseas mergers and acquisitions, with abundant technical reserves. On 20 18, the company established a subsidiary Anhui Anmeike to undertake the technology of AMK company and promote the localization of air suspension system assembly of new energy vehicles. In August 2020, the first batch of orders was obtained, and the localization of air suspension system assembly made a major breakthrough.
Nexter ( 13 16。 HK): The steering feel and production preparation of the company's steer-by-wire system are in the leading position in the industry. With the telescopic steering column, silent steering wheel and on-demand steering system, the company laid out the steering technology required for advanced autopilot in advance, and obtained the first order of steer-by-wire system on 202 1, which is expected to be released gradually with advanced autopilot.