Weilai currently has about 300,000 vehicles. By the end of February, the world has arranged 133 1 to change power stations (overseas 1 1), of which 350 expressways have changed power stations. 126 1 over-filled stations (6 overseas) and 6385 over-filled piles (overseas 18). In addition, Weilai also laid out114 destination charging stations and 7558 destination charging piles; Connect 1048000+ third-party charging piles (overseas 388000+).
From 20 18 to 2022, Weilai built 1305 power stations in five years, but in 2023, 1000 power stations will be added, twice as many as the 400 announced by the company at the end of last year. This plan can be described as vigorous. Why is Wei Lai so radical? What impact and changes will it bring to Weilai, users and the industry? Recently, Han Jia, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Cheyi and founder and editor-in-chief of EV Century, three members of Hardcore Automotive Research Institute, chatted with Li, a senior automotive industry analyst, Alario consulting partner and former assistant president of Greater China.
How big is the user's demand for Weilai Power Station?
In order to successfully complete the "Thousand Stations Plan", Weilai has intensively organized more than 100 user face-to-face activities in many places across the country for half a month to discuss the site selection scheme with users, and also hopes that users with resources can provide help in terms of site and power capacity. There were more than 300 face-to-face activities in March, and more are expected in the future.
Judging from the feedback from users on Weilai APP, Weilai car owners from all over the country actively participated in the discussion of the "Thousand Station Plan". The main content of the user's message is to tell Weilai's staff where they are, and the local area needs Weilai's power exchange station very much. Judging from users' messages, their demand for Weilai Power Station is very urgent.
A user in Yongzhou City, Hunan Province wrote: Yongzhou City has no power stations and charging piles, and its population is several million. After reading it, Mr. Li of Li Bin thinks that the sales volume of Weilai is as good as ideal, so we must grasp the demand points in users' minds.
Another user in Yinchuan, Gansu wrote: Yinchuan-Lanzhou Expressway Service Area, Yinchuan-Hohhot Expressway, Yinchuan-Jinan Expressway, Yinchuan-Xinjiang Expressway and Yinchuan-Lhasa Expressway have no power stations. The Weilai electric car in Yinchuan can only drive around Yinchuan, and it is still inconvenient for the Weilai electric car outside to come to Yinchuan. Another Yinchuan user immediately replied that "Yinchuan did not replace the power station with Xi 'an".
The author has a rough look at the user's area, and there are many county-level cities and towns. The picture above shows the places where some users held face-to-face activities in March, including many towns and streets. I don't know how many of Weilai's 1000 new power stations can sink to counties and townships this year, and to what extent can they meet the requirements of users.
Combined with user feedback, Weilai has built more than 1300 power stations, which are far from meeting the needs of users and unevenly distributed. The ratio of changing power stations in Beijing and Shanghai has reached 15%, but many prefecture-level cities have not changed power stations, let alone county-level cities or towns. From this point of view, even if Weilai builds 1000 power stations this year, it still cannot meet the needs of users.
The pressure and challenge of "capital construction fever"
From the user's point of view, we will definitely agree with Weilai's "Thousand Stations Plan", but after Weilai announced the loss of 1 and 444,438+billion yuan in 2022, we will have more different perspectives on the "Thousand Stations Plan".
Weilai's founder, chairman and CEO posted a post on Weilai APP that 65,438+0,000 power stations will be built this year, which was viewed by 248,000 people and left nearly 6,000 messages (most of which told Weilai to build a power station there). Coupled with the enthusiastic response of users after the release of the "Thousand Stations Plan", the author has a feeling that, to some extent, the power exchange system seems to have replaced the brand tonality and service. Weilai also intends to further develop the unique business model of electricity exchange, so as to make it a moat in by going up one flight of stairs.
In addition, the author has a feeling that Weilai will take building more power stations as the premise of expanding sales. Perhaps the decision to increase the price of power station construction this year is directly related to the stagnation of Weilai sales.
Yang Xiaolin also believes that changing electricity may increase users' interest in buying Weilai electric vehicles. Moreover, through the construction of power exchange station, Weilai's long service board is getting longer and longer, which makes other competitors unable to catch up in a short time.
However, the huge investment in power stations is no small pressure on Wei, and with the continuous increase of the number of electric vehicles in Weilai, the construction speed of power stations can not keep up with the growth speed of user demand.
A user calculated an account for Weilai: 38,774 township streets in 2,862 districts and counties nationwide, 1 3,000 seats were allocated according to the ratio of 3 to 1, and 2,200 seats in more than 4,400 high-speed service areas were allocated according to the ratio of 2 to1,all of which required at least15,000.
Some users are also worried about Weilai's current development model. A user said to Li Bin: I feel that Weilai's stall is too big now, and the losses are shocking, which has affected the purchase intention of many potential consumers. It is suggested to temporarily put aside the mobile phone and battery business and concentrate on making cars.
However, Han Jia said that she was not worried about the financial pressure Wei Lai faced, because Wei Lai had already opened up the capital markets in the United States, Hong Kong and Singapore, and there were many financing channels. He believes that Weilai's plan to add 1 1,000 power stations this year must have gone through strict financial calculations.
Han Jia believes that it is a challenge for Wei that other car companies compete for charging and replacing power station resources and capacitor resources. In addition, there will be great challenges in the operation of changing power stations, especially in the expressway service area. It is not easy to balance the allocation of resources between peak hours and daily hours. Li believes that Weilai is also facing the rent pressure of changing electric field stations. In the long run, the high land cost will trouble the operation of the power station. In addition, if the problem of battery standardization cannot be solved, each brand of power station can only be compatible with its own brand of batteries, and the asset turnover rate is too low to control the cost.
The author believes that Weilai should also build more overcharge stations to guide users to choose between overcharge and power exchange, rather than building more expensive power exchange stations. If the user's energy supplement demand can be reasonably distributed between the charging station and the power exchange station through price means or some technical means, the pressure of Weilai to build the power exchange station network can be alleviated.
Possibility of independent listing of Weilai Energy
Regarding the development prospect of Weilai Power Station, Li believes that the development of power station can be considered from the perspective of capital. "In the future, it is not ruled out that Weilai Automobile's entire charging and replacing business will be independent. This piece is developing very well and may be listed independently. This is also possible. "
With the deepening of power market reform, State Grid has set up a number of power sales companies, and the main body of power sales presents a diversified trend. These changes have brought new opportunities to the business model of electric vehicle companies and made their charging and replacing business profitable.
Li believes that the current national (online) electricity price is generally 0.3 yuan per kWh, and the electricity price to the end users of charging and replacing power stations is about per kWh 1 yuan. After deducting the battery depreciation cost, the gross profit is still close to 100%. This is the fundamental factor to promote the sustainable development of power exchange mode. It is precisely because of the huge profit margin of power exchange that Weilai insists on doing so. Do not rule out the possibility of setting up a power sales company after Weilai has built enough power stations.
By the end of this year, Weilai will have built 2,300 power exchange stations. With the increasing number of Weilai electric vehicles, there will be more and more power stations. It is not ruled out that it will reach tens of thousands in the future. Imagine if such a huge power exchange network participates in the operation of the power grid as a distributed energy infrastructure, how big the business opportunities will be.
Weilai's business model
Weilai Energy occupies a very important position in Weilai's business model. As a change of the "rechargeable, replaceable and upgradeable" business model, Weilai established Wuhan Weineng Battery Assets Co., Ltd. in August 2020 to hold and operate the batteries rented by car buyers through the separation of vehicles and electricity.
Vehicle-electricity separation-battery leasing-electricity exchange is Weilai's unique business model, which significantly reduces the cost of car purchase for users and improves the efficiency and experience of energy replenishment for users. However, the way that users rent batteries and pay rent to Weilai every month also brings great financial pressure to Weilai. Therefore, Weilai joined hands with contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd., Hubei Science and Technology Investment Group Co., Ltd. and other companies and investment institutions to establish Wuhan Weineng to hold and operate these battery assets. According to Aiqicha's information, Wuhan Weineng's equity is relatively scattered. At present, there are about 20 shareholders, of which Weilai, as the largest shareholder, holds less than 20%, and Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. holds about 65,438+00%.
The author believes that, similar to the way of holding and operating battery assets, the charging and replacing power station, as a heavy asset, will not rule out the possibility of Weilai setting up an independent company to build, hold and operate its own charging and replacing power station network in the future. With the construction of more power stations and more capital investment, Weilai is likely to adopt the way of Wuhan Weineng and introduce other powerful partners. In the end, with the increasing scale of the power transmission network and the clearer profit prospects, it has finally become an important business unit of Weilai.
This article comes from EV Century, the author of Easy Car Number, and the copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author for any form of reprint. The content only represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with the car reform.