It is estimated that the demand for industrial monoammonium phosphate will increase to 290,000 tons in 2022 (compared with 2020), and the demand for lithium ferrous phosphate will rapidly increase to 2.07 million tons in 2023-2025, corresponding to the total demand for industrial-grade phosphoric acid/monoammonium phosphate of 16 1000 tons. From 2025 to 2030, the demand of lithium ferrous phosphate will increase rapidly to10 million tons, corresponding to the total demand of industrial grade phosphoric acid/monoammonium phosphate of about 8 million tons.
Description: At present, the total domestic capacity of ammonium dihydrogen phosphate is about 165438+ 10,000 tons. According to the demand in 2025, the current market gap is about 565,438+million tons, and there will be a gap of 6.9 million tons by 2030, which has obvious opportunities for enterprises with the overall production capacity of diammonium phosphate.
(1) Although yellow phosphorus and phosphate fertilizer can produce high-purity phosphoric acid and industrial monoammonium, it will take more than 1.5 years to expand the capacity. The processing capacity of total phosphorus is limited by the policy, and the capacity expansion of phosphorus chemical industry is currently limited by the policy, and phosphorus processing is a kind of licensing business.
(2) The production capacity of different products can be replaced. For example, yellow phosphorus and phosphate fertilizer can be converted into industrial grade phosphoric acid/monoammonium phosphate, but the conversion will lead to the shortage of yellow phosphorus and phosphate fertilizer itself, and enterprises with large total phosphorus processing capacity will benefit. Further easing the shortage may require adjustment of industrial policies.
(3) Phosphate rock resources are in short supply. At this time, increasing the output of phosphate rock will face two barriers, the first is the policy barrier of phosphate rock mining, and the second is the scarcity barrier of phosphorus resources. Phosphorus resources are non-renewable. The existing reserve-production ratio in China is only about 35 years, and each ton of lithium ferrous phosphate consumes 1.9 tons of phosphate rock. In 2025, the potential demand for lithium ferrous phosphate will account for more than 4% of the phosphate rock production in 2020, and may reach 20% in 2030. This demand will lead to a shortage of phosphate rock.
(4) According to the caliber of companies in the industry, the production of fertilizer-grade monoammonium phosphate requires about 1.5-2 tons of phosphate rock per ton, while one ton of industrial-grade phosphoric acid requires about 3.7 tons of phosphorus resources (converted into pure phosphorus pentoxide). If it is purified into ammonium dihydrogen phosphate as battery, it will consume more phosphate rock resources. With the increase of the proportion of lithium ferrous phosphate, the demand will be transmitted upward from the industrial chain of lithium ferrous phosphate-iron phosphate-high purity phosphoric acid/industrial monoammonium-yellow phosphorus/phosphate fertilizer-phosphate rock, and the prices of products in short supply will rise rapidly.
2. Ammonium dihydrogen phosphate (actual income for lithium iron phosphate batteries) enterprises
1, Chuanfa python: the largest ammonium phosphate producer in the world with the largest production and sales volume and the largest domestic export volume, with the export volume exceeding 50% of the total domestic export volume; At present, the company takes ammonium dihydrogen phosphate and feed-grade calcium hydrogen phosphate, which have the largest market share in China, as its core products. The production capacity of ammonium dihydrogen phosphate is 400,000 tons/year, the total production capacity of feed-grade calcium hydrogen phosphate is 550,000 tons/year and the production capacity of phosphogypsum is 2 million tons/year. The annual output of Baizhu phosphate rock in Xiangyang base of the company 1 10,000 tons of phosphate rock production scale has been basically completed, and the mine acceptance is under way. After the production, the remaining phosphate rock products will be sold to the outside world. Tian Rui Mining has an annual output of 3.65 million tons of phosphate rock, and obtained more than 90 million tons of phosphate rock resources, while the company's original reserves exceeded 48 million tons, totaling 65.438+38 million tons.
Note 1:202 1 The profit in the first three quarters was 840 million, up 42.2% year-on-year, reaching a record high. However, in the third quarter, it decreased by 64.5% compared with the second quarter, with total share capital17.63 million and earnings per share of 0.56 yuan. At present, the total market value is 3180 thousand.
2. Xinyangfeng: The company has an agricultural monoammonium phosphate production capacity of 6.5438+0.8 million tons, and the total ammonium phosphate production capacity ranks among the top in China, of which the ammonium dihydrogen phosphate production capacity is 6.5438+0.5 million tons/year, and phosphoric acid is an intermediate production capacity. The planned production capacity of phosphoric acid is 400,000 tons/year, the production capacity of phosphate rock is 900,000 tons/year, and the total reserves of phosphate rock assets are about 500 million tons, some of which have not been fully explored.
Note 2:202 1 profits realized in the first three quarters 10.5 1 billion, up 32.54% year-on-year, reaching a record high. However, in the third quarter, it decreased by 3% compared with the second quarter, with a total share capital of10.305 billion and earnings per share of 84 yuan. At present, the total market value is 23.69 billion.
3.*st Zheng Jin: The company will produce 450,000 tons of monoammonium phosphate in 2020, and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Jin Zhengda, Guizhou, owns monoammonium phosphate, including 200,000 tons of ammonium dihydrogen phosphate. The reserves of phosphate rock are 80 million tons, and the planned annual mining capacity is 2 million tons.
Note 3:202 1 profit in the first three quarters-23 million, up 92.54% year-on-year. The loss in the third quarter was-69 million, the total share capital was 3.286 billion, and the earnings per share was -0.0 1 yuan. At present, the total market value is 8.34 billion.
4. Six countries chemical industry: urea production capacity: 300,000 tons/year, monoammonium phosphate production capacity: 450,000 tons/year (among which the company has two holding subsidiaries producing ammonium dihydrogen phosphate, Hubei six countries production capacity is 50,000 tons/year, and Xinke Chemical production capacity is 30,000 tons/year.
), diammonium phosphate production capacity: 640,000 tons/year (the wet-process phosphoric acid production capacity of this department is 400,000 tons of P2O5/ year, and every actual production 1 ton of phosphoric acid produces about 4.5 tons of phosphogypsum, and the actual by-product phosphogypsum is about * * 1.6 million tons/year; The comprehensive utilization rate of phosphogypsum is 100%. The wet-process phosphoric acid production capacity of six countries in Hubei is 200,000 tons/year, and the by-product is about 6,543.8+0,000 tons/year. At present, the comprehensive utilization rate of phosphogypsum is 35-40%), the capacity of compound fertilizer is 654.38+500,000 tons/year, and the capacity of potassium sulfate is 60,000 tons.
Note 4: The profit in the first three quarters of 2021was 240 million, up 61.68% year-on-year; The profit in the third quarter was 88 million, and the total share capital was 522 million, down 9.9% from the second quarter. Earnings per share is 0.46 yuan, and the current total market value is 449 1 10,000.
5. Yuntu Holdings: 60,000 tons of yellow phosphorus, 600,000 tons of soda ash, 430,000 tons of agricultural monoammonium phosphate, 6,543.8+10,000 tons of ammonium dihydrogen phosphate, 6,543.8+0.4 million tons of high-quality edible salt, 60,000 tons of edible potassium chloride, 80,000 tons of seasoning, 600,000 tons of ammonium chloride and 6,543.8+potassium dihydrogen phosphate. Proven reserves1.800 million tons of phosphate rock, 250 million tons of salt ore and 200 million tons of pyrite;
Note 5: The profit in the first three quarters of 20021increased by 1 10.68% year-on-year, and the profit in the third quarter was 377 million, up by 69.2% year-on-year. The total share capital is 10 1 100 million, and the earnings per share is 0.78 yuan. At present, the total market value is161.800 million.
6. Chuanheng Co., Ltd.: The phosphate rock reserves directly held by the company's holding subsidiary are 65.438+600 million tons, and the phosphate rock reserves of Tianyi Mining, a shareholding company, are 370 million tons. According to the shareholding ratio, the reserves of phosphate rock are 65.438+0.8 billion tons. Two * * * is 340 million tons. The phosphate rock production capacity is 2.5 million tons/year, and it is planned to build an iron phosphate production line with an annual output of 500,000 tons, and the ammonium dihydrogen phosphate production capacity is 6.5438+0.4 million tons.
Note 6: In 2021the profit in the first three quarters was 2 1 1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 48.56%; The profit in the third quarter was1.70 billion, up by 5 1.6% year-on-year. The total share capital is 488 million, and the earnings per share is 0.43 yuan. At present, the total market value is 20.07 billion.
Summary:
Ranked by industrial monoammonium phosphate production capacity: Chuanfa Longman (400,000 tons), *st Zheng Jin (200,000 tons), Xinyangfeng (6.5438+0.5 million tons), Chuanheng Co., Ltd. (6.5438+0.4 million tons), Yuntu Holdings (6.5438+0 million tons) and Liuguo Chemical (80,000 tons).
Ranked by phosphate rock reserves: Xinyangfeng (500 million tons), Chuanheng (340 million tons), Yuntu Holdings (65.438+0.8 billion tons), Chuanfa Longman (65.438+0.38 billion tons), *st Zheng Jin (0.8 billion tons) and Liuguo Chemical (none).
Ranked by market value: Chuanfa Longwen (365.438+0.8 billion), Xinyangfeng (23.69 billion), Chuanheng (20.07 billion), Yuntu Holdings (65.438+0.8 billion), *st Zheng Jin (8.34 billion) and Liuguo Chemical (4.49 billion).
Compared with the growth rate in the third quarter of 2020, the ranking is as follows: Yuntu Holdings (1 10.68%), *st Zheng Jin (92.54%), Liuguo Chemical (6 1.68%), Chuanheng Co., Ltd. (48.56%) and Chuanfa Dragon Python.
Compared with the year-on-year growth rate in the second quarter of 20021,Yuntu Holdings (69.2%), Chuanheng (5 1.6%), Xinyangfeng (-3%), Liuguo Chemical (-9.9%), Chuanfa Longman (-64.5%) and *st Zheng Jin.
The order of attention of the comprehensive ranking targets: Xinyangfeng, Yuntu Holdings, Chuanheng Shares, and Chuanfa Dragon Python.
Remarks: There are still some enterprises that have not put it on (so it is not complete).
Investment is risky and is for reference only.