Wholesale price and retail price of refined oil are upside down. Due to the retail price limit, the gas station restricts oil supply to reduce losses, which makes it difficult to refuel.
The pressure of energy saving and emission reduction in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan has led to power cuts in various places, which in turn has led to an increase in diesel power generation and a tight supply of diesel.
Coping strategy
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A more reasonable oil price control mechanism and profit supervision mechanism of petrochemical enterprises will be introduced to limit the growth of private vehicles and develop public transportation. In the long run, it is necessary for the state to increase its support for the research and development of automobile-related industries, reduce automobile fuel consumption and develop a variety of green power vehicles.
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Petrochemical Shuangxiong statement: the shortage of diesel oil will end at the end of next month.
Xia, deputy general manager of China Petrochemical Sales Co., Ltd., said in an interview that Sinopec's diesel inventory had stopped falling and rebounded last weekend. He predicted that after 1 month, Sinopec's diesel inventory should reach a normal level, and the diesel shortage will end at the end of 12.
In this regard, PetroChina related people also had similar statements when interviewed by reporters.
Analysts said that the continuous decline in crude oil triggered the domestic market to wait and see, domestic diesel resources became increasingly loose, and the control of gas stations under the two giants in key coastal cities changed from tight to loose, and the resource shortage in retail links was expected to be further eased.
But some experts believe that Sinopec's forecast is too optimistic. At the end of the year, the demand for electricity for enterprises and diesel oil for coal transportation will increase, which may alleviate the oil shortage. There is no sign of ending.
Inventory rebounded for the first time.
"Recently, especially in the last two months, the company's diesel inventory has fallen sharply," Xia said. Since August, the domestic inventory of refined oil products has dropped significantly. According to China oil inventory data released by Xinhua News Agency, in September, diesel inventory decreased by 8.6% from the previous month; In June, 5438+ 10, the inventory of diesel oil decreased 10.7%.
Liao Kaishun, an energy analyst in Wang Xi, said that in March, domestic refined oil inventories were at a normal level, estimated at around 6,543,800 tons. But by the end of 10, the inventory of refined oil dropped to140,000 tons, and the inventory of diesel oil was about 9 million tons, leaving only 6.25 million tons.
The reporter learned from the two major oil giants that diesel stocks rebounded for the first time. Relevant persons of PetroChina said that the daily processing capacity of the company's diesel oil remained at the highest level in history of 400,000 tons. Later, with the fall of winter demand, diesel inventory will rise.
Xia said that the rebound of diesel inventory was mainly the result of a series of measures such as increasing diesel production, increasing imports and delaying refinery maintenance.
According to statistics, as of June 165438+ 10/6, the operating rate of 48 major domestic refineries was 87.06%, slightly higher than the high of 86.43% in the same period last year. The two giants will also import nearly 500 thousand tons of diesel.
Zuo Xingquan, deputy general manager of China Petrochemical Sales Co., Ltd. said, "Only 40% of Sinopec's refined oil supply is transported by pipeline, and there is no need for turnover and inventory, but most of the refined oil is transported by water, railway and automobile. Without inventory, turnover cannot be achieved. " The state requires that the stock oil can meet the turnover of 1 month, and each oil company can grasp it according to the specific situation. The international practice is 2 weeks or 22 days.
Experts say: Expect or be too optimistic.
Xia revealed that the two major companies will add 6.5438+0 million tons of diesel to the market, but the actual consumption demand is not so much, and the shortage of diesel in coastal areas, along the Yangtze River, East China and South China is easing. According to the energy monitoring in Wang Xi, gas stations in key coastal cities are basically open for oil supply, such as Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Hebei Sinopec. However, only a few cities such as Hubei Sinopec in the inland areas such as Central China have been liberalized; Only Guangxi has been liberalized in the southwest, and the main gas stations in other places are still limited.
"There are fewer and fewer people waiting in line at the gas station. In the past, each car was limited to diesel from 200 yuan to 300 yuan, and now it is limited to 500 yuan to 600 yuan. " Summer said to.
According to an insider of Guangdong Sinopec, the retail volume of each sales company has increased significantly by about 5%~ 10% compared with last week.
Relevant persons of PetroChina said that the gas stations of the company in most parts of the northeast and northwest have been opened for supply, and will be expanded to the whole country according to the supply and demand situation in various places.
Liao Kaishun said: "International oil prices have been falling continuously, and the two major companies have released negative signals of increasing resources. Speculators are frustrated, reducing purchases, and diesel resources are out of the tight corner. "
Xia believes that if the international crude oil price stops rising and the panic demand drops, the diesel shortage will end at the end of 65438+February.
However, Han Xiaoping, CEO of China Energy Network, said: "At the end of the year, there is great pressure on energy conservation and emission reduction, and the power cuts for enterprises will continue; 65438+February is also the peak period of enterprise delivery, which consumes a lot of electricity and can only increase diesel power generation; In addition, hundreds of millions of tons of coal have been added this year, and there is a great demand for foreign diesel. So it is possible to ease, and there is no sign in the end. "
The oil shortage has not eased.
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Although "two barrels of oil" has expressed its intention to increase the supply of diesel, private oilmen do not buy it. Following the "shelling" of two barrels of oil by the Oil Circulation Committee of the China Federation of Commerce last month, the Petroleum Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce also stood up to deal with the bitter water, accusing the "two barrels of oil" of deliberately creating oil shortage and chaos, and calling on the state to conditionally liberalize the import of crude oil and refined oil. "The monopoly situation will not change and the oil shortage will continue to spread." Qi Fang, executive director of the Chamber of Commerce, said. On the one hand, two barrels of oil accused private gas stations of hoarding oil and reluctant to sell it, on the other hand, private oilmen countered the monopoly market of two barrels of oil. The two sides have their own words, but when will the dilemma of diesel shortage be solved? [ 1]
50,000 private gas stations are hungry.
"I can't buy high-priced oil now."
"I talked about the oil shortage helplessly, expressed helplessness, struggled to survive, and faced consumers with shame." Qian Qi, who is also the executive president of the Chamber of Commerce, used this parallelism to express his tangled mentality. "If you are engaged in oil, you will feel the same as me now." He is also the general manager of Nanjing Lanyan Petrochemical Storage and Transportation Co., Ltd., which owns several gas stations. According to its introduction, some of its subordinate gas stations are still selling diesel, but "selling a liter loses two or three dollars", and some simply stop supplying. "Now you can't buy high-priced oil. I can only guarantee oil supply at two or three gas stations in Nanjing. "
Qi Fang pointed out that "two barrels of oil" don't give oil at all, and private oilmen basically "can't buy oil", so they can only buy oil from middlemen and make a high profit. Its gas station uses diesel limited supply, only adding dozens of liters at a time, "give some oil to scare away drivers." According to Zhang Yue, president, China, there are about 50,000 private gas stations in China, and the supply of diesel oil is basically tight.
The two major oil groups also require "two barrels of oil" to increase the resources in sensitive and weak storage areas to ensure the demand for key oil such as agricultural "Sanqiu" production. "Two barrels of oil" immediately revealed that a number of measures are being taken to ensure supply. However, in the past week, private oilmen did not feel that the shortage of diesel oil had eased. "There is no obvious improvement." Qian Qilian believes that if you can buy oil below the retail price, it means that there is improvement, but you can't buy it yet. According to its description, in the past, the wholesale price exceeded the retail price, and the price upside down was serious. Originally, according to relevant regulations, the wholesale price of refined oil was at least lower than the retail price by 300 yuan.
Deny hoarding oil and refuse to sell it.
"The difference earned is not enough to pay interest, and there is no oil source to hoard."
Since last month, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Guizhou and other local areas. Experienced a tight supply of diesel. Some private gas stations complain about the limited supply, stop supplying, and even queue up to refuel in the city. In the view of the two major oil groups, the main reasons for the tight supply of diesel in this round are the strong rebound of international oil prices, the uneven construction of trust network, the rebound of seasonal consumer demand and the "reluctance to sell" or even hoarding of some social gas stations. In this regard, the presidents collectively denied it.
"There is no such thing. Isn't it silly to hoard oil now? " Qian Qilian pointed out that a ton of oil is more than 8,000 yuan, so there is no need to hoard oil at such a high oil price. Moreover, according to his years of experience, hoarding oil generally chooses to bet on the start of next spring's market between Christmas and Spring Festival, and the timing is not quite right. There is basically no oil in your garage. Zhang Yue also said that saving 1 10,000 tons of glossy funds will be close to 1 100 million yuan, which is not cost-effective. The difference earned is not enough to pay interest, and there is no oil source to hoard.
reference data
1. The diesel shortage has not been alleviated after the interview by the National Development and Reform Commission. 50,000 private gas stations are hungry.