According to industry insiders, the interest rate of real estate loans has dropped to a new low in recent years. In the context of the sharp decline in the stock market, investors will once again turn to real estate with low capital cost and good value preservation effect, and the expectation of buying a house will be significantly enhanced. Under many favorable effects, the property market in first-and second-tier cities can be expected to be "golden September and silver 10".
The interest rate of overweight provident fund loans hit a new low.
The central bank announced that the benchmark interest rates of RMB loans and deposits of financial institutions will be lowered from August 26th, 20 15, further reducing the financing costs of enterprises. Among them, the benchmark interest rate for one-year loans of financial institutions was lowered by 0.25 percentage points to 4.6%; The benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits was lowered by 0.25 percentage point to1.75%; The benchmark interest rates for loans and deposits of other grades and the deposit and loan interest rates for individual housing provident fund shall be adjusted accordingly. According to a preliminary estimate, the total amount of funds released by the RRR cut is about 730 billion yuan.
At the same time, the central bank announced another RRR cut, that is, from 2065438+September 6, 2005, the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions will be lowered by 0.5 percentage point, so as to keep liquidity in the banking system reasonably abundant and guide the steady and moderate growth of money and credit.
The relevant person in charge of the central bank said that there is still downward pressure on China's economic growth, and the task of stabilizing growth, restructuring, promoting reform, benefiting people's livelihood and preventing risks is still very arduous. The global financial market has also experienced great fluctuations recently, so it is necessary to use monetary policy tools more flexibly to create a good monetary and financial environment for economic restructuring and stable and healthy economic development. The main purpose of lowering the benchmark interest rates for loans and deposits this time is to continue to play the guiding role of benchmark interest rates, promote the reduction of social financing costs, and support the sustained and healthy development of the real economy. The reduction of the deposit reserve ratio this time is mainly based on the changes in liquidity in the banking system to appropriately provide long-term liquidity, so as to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity and promote stable and healthy economic development.
It is worth mentioning that this is the fifth rate cut since last June165438+1October, and it is also the second "double drop" since May this year. Zhang Dawei, director of the Central Plains real estate market, said that although RRR's RRR cut and interest rate cut policy is not entirely aimed at the property market, from the current market situation, the real estate market is the most direct beneficiary.
"The real estate market is closely related to changes in the monetary environment. Since the beginning of the interest rate reduction cycle at the end of last year, China has cut interest rates five times and reduced RRR four times, which is equivalent to that in 2008. At present, the interest rate of provident fund loans for less than five years (including five years) has been lowered from the current 3% to 2.75%, and the interest rate of loans for more than five years has been lowered from the current 3.5% to 3.25%, both hitting new lows since 2000. " Zhang Dawei said that after 20 years of borrowing, the interest rate will be reduced by as much as1930,000 yuan. This will obviously increase the enthusiasm of buyers who are willing to buy a house.
The transfer stock market plummeted and the direction of asset allocation changed.
Recently, A shares fell sharply for several consecutive trading days, and still fell below 3,000 points after the central bank announced the double drop. With the plunge of the two cities, the market value of A shares has shrunk from the peak of 69.57 trillion in June 15 to 40.39 trillion.
Insiders pointed out that more and more investors will turn to invest in safer real estate under the repeated sharp fluctuations in the stock market.
Previously, the Report of China Household Assets in the Second Quarter of 20 15 released by China Family Finance Research and Research Center pointed out that in the process of A-share crash at the end of the second quarter, signs of the withdrawal of stock market funds from the housing market had already appeared.
The report points out that since 20 14, the stock market expectation index of China's shareholding families has been rising continuously, and reached the maximum value of 142 in the first quarter of 20 15 (when the index value is greater than 100, it is bullish on the stock market, but less than 100, see. However, at the end of the second quarter, the index fell to11due to the negative impact of the stock market crash on the sentiment of domestic investors.
According to the report, as of the first quarter of 20 15, the house price expectation index of the shareholding families was less than 100, indicating that the shareholding families were bullish on the stock price and bearish on the house price, but by the second quarter, it was 2011.8, while the stock market expectation was 0.
Li Gan, director of the China Family Finance Research and Research Center, said that with the stock market crash, the shareholding ratio of profitable families declined for the first time in the second quarter of 20 15, and some families began to be alert to market risks, and their willingness to reduce their holdings increased significantly. In the second quarter survey of 15 from June to July 2, a large number of families have bought new commercial houses, and this period happened to be when the stock market began to plummet.
"With the sharp fluctuations in the stock market and the decline in the cost of housing funds, more and more household investments will turn." Zhang Hongwei, director of the same policy consulting research department, believes that for investors, when the fundamentals of the stock market begin to return to rationality, investors will consider adjusting the allocation of asset structure. Relative to the stock market with high unstable factors, or increase the allocation ratio of entities such as investment in real estate.
The pre-judgment is good, and frequent transactions in the property market are expected to climb.
In fact, in addition to the further reduction of loan interest rates, local rescue policies are also being introduced one after another. A few days ago, Shandong Province issued "Opinions on Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Shandong Province", giving preferential treatment to the purchase of houses in terms of commercial loans, provident fund loans, business tax, income tax and deed tax relief.
In this regard, Zhang Dawei said that the current economic situation in China is still very grim, and real estate is still an important industry supporting China's economy. Therefore, the purpose of the multi-pronged policy is to maintain stability and rise. In this context, it is also a big plus for developers.
Zhu Guang, a researcher at the institute, also believes that although the capital situation of the real estate industry has improved, it is still affected by the financial environment as a whole, and the financing cost is still high and the financing channels are not smooth. Moreover, the support of commercial banks for housing development loans is generally small, and real estate enterprises still rely more on self-raised funds and sales receipts as the main sources of funds for daily operations. Reducing interest rates will help reduce financing costs and further ease the financial pressure on enterprises. Housing enterprises can take advantage of the short-term policy window effect of RRR interest rate cuts and RRR cuts, increase efforts to push the market, actively destock, and create favorable conditions for enterprise business development.
Hu Jinghui, vice president of Ye Wei I Love My Family Group, believes that with the increase of liquidity and the reduction of financing costs, the real estate market, which was slightly tired in August, is expected to climb again, and the annual property market turnover may hit a new high in three years.
Zhang Hongwei also believes that in the short term, the transaction volume of the property market is bound to pick up in the next few months, and there is not much suspense in "Golden September and Silver 10". Previously, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the changes of residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities from 2065438 to July 2005. Compared with last month, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, there are 29 cities with falling prices and 3 1 city with rising prices. This is the first time that the number of cities with rising prices has exceeded the number of cities with falling prices since the current round of decline.
Zhu Guang also said that the differentiation of the local market will become more and more obvious. With the RRR purchase restriction, the recovery of the property market will add new impetus, especially in the first-tier and some second-tier cities with relatively tight supply and demand structure. It is expected that the real estate market will continue to heat up during the year and the price increase will also accelerate; Most second-tier cities and some third-tier cities will speed up the process of destocking, and house prices will rise steadily; In most third-and fourth-tier cities, the trend of house prices will tend to be stable because of the long destocking period.