Even the "thunder" that the people who originally ate melons thought was only related to P2P and fund-raising actually appeared in car companies with sluggish sales and tight funds.
"At present, there are temporary difficulties in funding, so we have failed to pay the bonds due on time." The announcement of Brilliance Automobile Group Holding Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Brilliance Automobile") is short and weak. The bond referred to as "17 Huaqi05" failed to pay the 20 17 non-public corporate bonds (Phase II) to CSI Shanghai Branch on schedule, with the principal of 65,438 billion yuan and interest of 53 million yuan, which was originally scheduled.
To put it bluntly, the bonds issued by Brilliance Auto are five days overdue, and the principal plus interest is 65.438+0.053 billion yuan. Now it is impossible to pay the creditors, leaving only one sentence: "The Group is actively working hard to study the solution, and I believe Brilliance will actively and properly solve the bond problem."
In the face of a mountain of huge debts, the word "believe" is not convincing. On the contrary, opening Brilliance's performance can only add more worries and doubts. As far as China automobile industry is concerned, Brilliance is not the only enterprise facing the risk of "lightning strike".
Liabilities 65438+200 billion
Signals with bad momentum are always a few steps earlier than the news finally comes out. As early as June 23rd of 10, Brilliance Auto had issued an announcement to confirm the fact of debt default. Although there is the word "believe" in the announcement, at the same time, Brilliance also admitted that "due to the tight liquidity, the funds are facing great difficulties, and there is great uncertainty about whether the full amount of funds can be raised in time".
We are used to hearing that a P2P platform has exploded, and a small leather bag company is heavily in debt. For a state-owned enterprise like Brilliance Auto, its left-hand assets are10.7 billion, and its right hand is endorsed by shareholders of Liaoning SASAC and Liaoning Social Security Fund Council (the shareholding ratio is 80:20). Can such news even appear?
According to the 20 19 annual report of Brilliance Auto obtained by the Automobile Commune, the income of this key enterprise in Shenyang is 2018165438+30 million yuan, which is 156928 million yuan higher than that of 20 156928 million yuan. The net profit increased from 9.774 billion yuan to 12.0% to1095 billion yuan. It seems that the performance is good, the scale and profit margin are considerable, and the year-on-year growth has been achieved in the context of the market downturn. But why can't such a powerful enterprise pay the bonds due?
Besides revenue and profit, another batch of indicators need to be assessed: as of the end of the period (20 19 12 3 1), the cash flow was 37.7 billion, higher than 29.3 billion at the end of 20 18. However, the current liabilities are 65,438+0,65,438+0,625, 1 billion yuan, and after adding non-current liabilities (including bonds payable), the total liabilities are 65,438+0,447,543.80 billion yuan.
The figures provided by Oriental Jincheng are: By the end of March 2020, the total liabilities of Brilliance Auto were 65.438+0.22675 billion yuan. Just one bond is enough to make glory difficult. According to the data of Guangfa Securities Development Research Center, as of 20201October 23rd, Brilliance Automobile Group has issued bonds 14, with a total bond balance of17.2 billion yuan. Taking the term distribution and resale pressure as the observation dimensions, it is mainly concentrated in 202 1 and 2022, and the maturity and resale scale of bonds are 6.5 billion yuan and 9.2 billion yuan respectively.
It can be estimated that in order to reduce its liabilities, Brilliance Auto will inevitably have a cash flow loss from the end of last year to the first quarter of this year. The debt of 65,438+0,200 ~ 65,438+0,400 billion makes the cash flow of 20 ~ 30 billion insufficient.
In fact, Brilliance's "Thunder" has long been audible. Since July this year, many of its bonds have "dived", and debt and capital chain problems have emerged.
Taiping Asset Management Co., Ltd. stated that Brilliance Auto should distribute the quarterly interest payable on September 2, 20201day, but as of June 2020 10/4, Brilliance Group had not distributed the quarterly interest payable to the trustee of the debt investment plan;
Jiangsu Trust stated that Brilliance Auto should pay the loan principal 1 006,5438+0 billion yuan with interest of 20 million yuan and penalty interest of 6,683,800 yuan on June 2, 2020. However, as of June 65438+1October 65438+May 2020, Brilliance Group failed to pay the loan principal and interest as agreed;
Institutions including Dagong International Credit Rating Co., Ltd. are downgrading Brilliance. Among them, Oriental Jincheng downgraded the credit rating of Brilliance Group from AA+ to AA- on June 5 17, and again downgraded it to BBB on October 26 17, with a negative rating outlook.
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20 14~2020 Brilliance China Performance
The source of capital chain and liabilities should still be found in Brilliance's main business.
Where is China going? Huachen was at a loss.
The main manufacturing business of Brilliance Auto Group can be roughly divided into three parts: independent vehicle manufacturing (Brilliance China, Brilliance Xinyuan, etc. ), joint venture vehicles (BMW Brilliance, Renault Brilliance, etc. ) and spare parts and technologies (Chen Xin Power, Shenyang Aerospace Mitsubishi, etc. ).
Joint venture car business is the biggest profit source of Brilliance Auto.
If the listed company in China automobile industry, Brilliance China, a listed company under Brilliance Group, deserves to be an alternative. As far as profit margin is concerned, this Hong Kong-listed car company can almost stand out from the rest of the world. Since 20 1 1, the annual operating income of Brilliance China is only 56 billion yuan, but the net profit is between/kloc-0.8 billion yuan and 5.3 billion yuan. The highest annual profit record was 20145.343 billion yuan, which increased the profit rate to 97.9%. Even Toyota, which is famous for its high profits, has only110. In the first half of 2020, the profit rate was as high as 279.0%, that is, the net profit was close to three times the revenue.
Even if you know a little about finance, you can know that the joint venture company provides profits according to the equity method, but if you don't combine revenues, it will raise the profit index, lead to an abnormally high profit rate and attract investors. For Brilliance, the profit depends on BMW Brilliance. From 20 1 1 to 20 19, BMW Brilliance provided China with an annual profit of 17 to 5.5 billion yuan, accounting for 94.9% to 1 19.6% of its net profit. That is to say, excluding BMW Brilliance, other businesses of Brilliance China have been losing money since 20 12.
Performance of Brilliance Auto 20 19
Whether it is the performance of the entire Brilliance Group or the charm of listed companies in Brilliance China to attract investors, BMW Brilliance is the only decisive force, comparable to the "milk" that babies can't do without. In 20 15, the profit delivered by BMW Brilliance to Brilliance decreased by 30%, which was mainly due to the slow growth of China's economy and automobile industry, and at the same time, BMW Brilliance expanded its investment to prepare for the release of new cars and new production facilities. This year, Brilliance China's net profit plummeted by nearly 40%.
Although it doesn't rely on BMW Brilliance's "milk" like Brilliance, BMW Group is also eager to make up its "blood" in China. From 20 13 to 20 19, the total annual profit of BMW Brilliance ranged from 1 1 0 to 2 billion euros. In addition to the above-mentioned 45 billion yuan contribution to Brilliance, the other half naturally filled BMW's pocket.
The wonderful time of enjoying the rich profits of the joint venture is coming to an end. 20 18, 10 BMW automobile group acquired 25% of the shares of BMW brilliance for 3.6 billion euros (about 28.5 billion yuan), realizing 75% of the shares, and the completion time was 2022. Of course, in addition to this fund, Brilliance's revenue has also been accelerated by BMW to launch new energy vehicles such as X5 and iX3.
But it's also expensive. In other words, after 2022, Brilliance will only get 25% annual dividend from BMW Brilliance, and the profit of BMW Brilliance will not be directly incorporated into the report, and the "good-looking figures" of Brilliance will be completely ended.
The field of self-driving cars is even more involved in the sad past.
In 2009, Brilliance China spun off its car business with heavy losses and sold it to its parent company Brilliance Group. Yes, the assets of listed companies in Brilliance do not include mediocre China. Excluding BMW Brilliance, Brilliance cannot make a profit. This is due to subsidiaries such as Shenyang Automobile and Yumin Machinery, and joint ventures such as Chen Xin Electric Power and Shenyang Aerospace. Although Chen Xin Power is relatively good at present, and even provides engines for powerful car companies such as Geely, it cannot reverse the decline of independent business of Brilliance China, let alone fill the "loss pit" quietly hidden by Brilliance Group-China Automobile.
If Brilliance also wrote a brilliant stroke in the wave of independent SUV development in China from 20 1 1 to 20 15, then today's China brand is almost destroyed. In the first nine months of 2020, the sales volume was 4,976 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 76.0%. The model with the highest sales volume is actually the old Chinese H330, with only 65,438+0,824 vehicles.
Sales Changes of Brilliance China and BMW Brilliance
Without the talents and determination to establish a positive technology research and development system, products and design will be impossible. China's independent brands have always lacked positive technology, but enterprising car companies are trying to find a "semi-independent platform" to absorb overseas talents and advanced experience as much as possible. Brilliance's technology and design are almost at the same time, lacking the ability to control the pulse of market demand. For example, in the SUV boom, Brilliance V3 achieved a monthly sales record of 20,000 vehicles in 2065,438+06,65,438+02, but it was quickly defeated in the new round of consumption upgrading. Powerful companies such as Geely and Great Wall soon came up with further upgraded models, and Brilliance V6 and V7 didn't go on the market until 20 18. Although the front face design of V6 was criticized, the product strength could not reach the level of powerful models.
The disorder and weakness of products have oppressed the development of channels. In 2008-2065 438+02, China's independent automobile enterprises collectively fell into a "network distribution frenzy", and their strength and scale were far less than those of Geely and Chery's Brilliance, so they even started the idea of network distribution and considered selling China brands on different networks. In terms of the ratio of primary network to secondary network, Brilliance China has also reached an abnormal state in the chaos. By the end of 20 10, there were more than 1 0,000 brand dealerships in China, but there were only 26 1 stores in the primary network, and a large number of branches closed down in the following years.
However, Chen Xin Power and Aerospace Mitsubishi, which play an important role as power providers in the autonomous automobile industry, still have a certain share and importance, but their performance is almost poor. In Brilliance China's 20 19 annual report, the decline in revenue was mainly attributed to "the weak performance of Chen Xin Power and Shenyang Aerospace Mitsubishi Automobile Engine Manufacturing Co., Ltd. during the year".
The lack of enterprise in the independent car business and over-reliance on the "nipple" of the joint venture business are the fundamental reasons why Brilliance is big but not strong and full of crises. It is true that with the scale of Brilliance and its importance to the region, the relevant regions will certainly support and save it, but never changing the stick is not a long-term solution.
Needless to say, most of the car companies ranked lower are not as good as Brilliance.
Text/Kaman
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This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.