Author | Liu Yang
At the end of the year, raiders will emerge one after another. Recently, I attended a more authoritative meeting. The chief analyst of a well-known military industry pointed out in his speech that the military industry has really entered the era of performance-driven stock prices. At present, the opportunities in the military industry have never been seen in the past ten years.
In fact, institutional funds have been involved, and the inflow in the third quarter is accelerating. By the end of the third quarter of 2020, the total market value of Public Offering of Fund's military warehouses was 72.74 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 124. 18% compared with the end of the second quarter of 2020, and the total market value held was 4 1570.438+065438+.
Many factors are superimposed, and accelerating national defense construction is the general trend.
During the 20 years from 1999 to 2020, the overall global defense budget showed a continuous upward trend, but it was also affected by economic development, and the growth rate declined. In 2009, the growth rate reached the highest point of 7. 12%. Since 20 10, due to the global economic crisis, the rapid growth of the global defense budget has been restrained.
From 20 1 1 to 20 14, the total global defense budget has always been in a downward trend, of which the total global defense budget of 20 14 has dropped to1746 billion US dollars, which is basically the same as that of 20 13, and the downward trend shows signs. In 20 15, the global defense budget rebounded year-on-year, reaching176 billion US dollars, an increase of about 1.37%, the first increase since 201. From 20 17, the growth rate of global defense budget began to rebound sharply. According to the latest data of SIPRI 2020, the global defense budget of $2019170 billion has reached the highest budget level since 1988, which is about an increase compared with 20 18.
As the country with the largest defense expenditure in the world, the defense budget of the United States in 2009 was $201553 billion, accounting for 8 1% of the world total, and the high growth of its own military expenditure and its influence on the military budget of its allies affected the global military expenditure trend. In contrast, China's military expenditure shows a rapid growth trend. In 20 19, China's defense expenditure was1189.9 billion yuan, still maintaining a growth rate of 7.5%. In the past decade, China's military expenditure has increased by 85%.
In fact, behind the rapid growth is the debt owed in the previous period. Because the development center of China in the previous period was economic construction, national defense construction was neglected in the 1980s and 1990s. In 20 18, China's military expenditure accounted for only 1.8% of GDP, far lower than that of the United States (3.2%), India (2.4%), Vietnam (2.3%) and Turkey (2.6%).
In recent years, under the background of increasingly complex international forms, safeguarding national security has been promoted to a new height. At the same time, strong comprehensive strength is the foundation of national defense construction. As the saying goes, "One shot is worth two thousand gold". Without a strong economic foundation, it is difficult to build a strong army. After decades of reform and opening-up, China has become the largest manufacturing country in the world, and it is in a leading position in both economic scale and economic development speed, which is the basis for vigorously developing the military industry.
The policy has been made clear, and the future military industry will accelerate its development. In 20 19, China published China's National Defense in the New Era, which stated that the strategic goal of China's national defense and army building in the new era is to basically realize mechanization by 2020 and make great progress in information construction. Strive to basically modernize national defense and the army by 2035, and build the people's army into a world-class army in an all-round way by the middle of this century.
The 14th Five-Year Plan Communiqué once again reiterated that China will speed up the modernization of national defense and the armed forces, comprehensively strengthen training and preparation for war, improve its strategic ability to defend national sovereignty, security and development interests, and ensure the centennial goal of building the armed forces in 2027. The Fifth Plenary Session of the Fifth Central Committee adopted the "Proposal of the Central Committee on Formulating the 14th Five-year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-term Target for 2035", which once again mentioned the centennial goal of building the army and "comprehensively strengthening training and preparing for war".
The "Proposal" also pointed out that it is necessary to strengthen strategic forces and new combat forces in new fields, accelerate the development of subversive technologies at the strategic frontier, and accelerate the upgrading of weapons and equipment and the development of intelligent weapons and equipment. It is worth noting that these formulations are the first time.
The "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" is the release period of the reform dividend.
During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the military focused on three reforms, namely, the reform of the military establishment system, the reform of the military pricing mechanism, and the reform of the military representative system. The reform began at the end of 20 16 and lasted until the third quarter of 20 19. During the reform period, due to the adjustment of military procurement organs, the adjustment of military procurement catalogue and the adjustment of product acceptance system, many orders were not issued, resulting in little improvement in the performance of military enterprises during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period.
However, after entering 2020, with the smooth completion of the reform and the acceleration of superimposed national defense construction, orders from the military industry poured out. The data shows that the military sector achieved rapid growth in the first three quarters, and the industry boom continued to improve.
95 affiliated companies * * * realized operating income of 365,438+088.1200 million, up by 65,438+04.98% year-on-year, and net profit of 22,065,438+060,000, up by 565,438+0.00% year-on-year. Excluding the impact of the sale of more than 3.3 billion shares of CSSC, the net profit was 66 million.
From the development point of view, the performance growth rate of aviation host industry chain, aviation new materials enterprises, missile product supporting enterprises and aviation engine industry chain enterprises is the most prominent. The downstream OEMs' Aeronautical Power and AVIC Shen Fei achieved unexpected growth, with revenues of15.468 billion and 189. 1 billion respectively, up by 20.90% and 19.0 1% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the mother was 4/kloc. The most significant growth in the middle reaches is Aileda, with revenue of 65.438+85 billion (96.5438+0.62%) and net profit of 89 million (+99.84%). The most significant upstream growth is Ruichuang Micro-nano, with revenue of 65.438+0.78 billion (65.438+0.67.89%).
As mentioned above, the reform of the military industry system has played a very important role in promoting the military industry, and the reform of the military pricing mechanism has the greatest impact on the performance of enterprises. By reforming the authority of supply chain management, the authority of industrial chain management is given to assembly and main subsystem enterprises, releasing the shackles of the old 5% cost plus mechanism of new products and driving profits to flow to assembly enterprises and high-tech enterprises. For products classified as military-purchased civilian products, social bidding should be adopted to avoid wasting procurement funds on shelf products with low technical content.
The new military pricing mechanism can encourage assembly enterprises and high-tech enterprises to carry out technological innovation to improve the net interest rate. Prior to this, the profit rate of the military industry was suppressed for a long time. For example, AVIC Shen Fei, as the leading fighter manufacturer in China, has a net profit margin of 3.6% in 20 16 and 3.7% in 20 19, which is not only very low, but also almost at a standstill. In contrast, from 20 15 to 20 19, the average net interest rates of Boeing, Airbus, Loma and Raytheon in the same industry are 7.42%, 3.69%, 8.75% and 9.75% respectively. An important reason for this phenomenon is the previous addition process pricing mechanism. With the change of pricing model from "cost additive process" to "target price method", the profit margin of AVIC Shen Fei is expected to be further opened, forming a situation of "quantity and price rising together", as are other enterprises in the industry.
Entering the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the military industry should not only complete the unfinished production tasks due to the reform during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, but also complete the new purchase orders issued during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. In other words, starting from 2020, it will take less than six years to complete the task of about nine years. At the same time, compared with before, the speed of national defense construction is also accelerating, so the number of orders at the same time will inevitably increase. Because of the superposition of two factors, the military industry has great opportunities in ten years, which is not an exaggeration.