It goes without saying that if Huawei's terminal business is damaged, its turnover and profit margin will decline. Huawei has no foreign and state-owned support. If its income drops sharply, its R&D business will be restricted. Then, the unknown future of Huawei is worrying.
As we all know, Huawei is the "leader" of high-tech industry in China. It is an example for China to independently develop and establish its own intellectual property enterprise. Huawei's growth has promoted the development of relevant industrial chains in China and high-tech industries in China. If Huawei's "Science and Technology Building" collapses, it will seriously affect the development of high-tech industry in China. It is a heavy blow to all private enterprises in China.
One advantage is that Ren Zheng Fei, the founder of Huawei, is a world-class entrepreneur. He is far-sighted. Facing the situation in the world's high-tech field, Ren led Huawei people to launch an active self-help action. Judging from the information disclosed by his predecessor in an interview with CCTV, Huawei seems to have known that it would be killed by the United States. Therefore, before the United States completely curbed Huawei's layout, he had led Huawei people to carry out a large number of chip reserves, and also noticed the scattered chip sources. This shows that the flexibility of Huawei enterprises is mature.
Not only that, Huawei also helps domestic industrial chain related companies to improve their technical level and greatly enhance the autonomy of parts supply. -This step is a good key. As a result of taking preventive measures, Ren walked very steadily.
In addition, manufacturing industry has become a pillar industry in China, and intelligent manufacturing has attracted great attention of the country. In the "Made in China 2025" plan issued by government departments, intelligent manufacturing is the main direction of China's manufacturing industry, and 5G is the basic performance of intelligent manufacturing. Huawei is at the forefront of the same industry in the world in the field of 5G, representing the highest level of intelligent manufacturing technology in China.
With the strategic planning of the country, Huawei will be helped and protected at a critical moment. As the second largest economy and the largest consumer market in the world, China has a star enterprise like Huawei, and it will not be controlled by others in the future "5g" field.
The US sanctions against Huawei are becoming more and more severe. Can Huawei finally stand it? If you can't carry it, will you bow your head and mainly? The US sanctions against Huawei are becoming more and more embarrassing. Trump is also a "conspiracy", and Huawei's life is getting worse and worse!
Let's take stock of the US crackdown on Huawei:
20 18 12 1, under the pressure of the United States, Canadian law enforcement officers arrested Meng Wanzhou;
On May 2019 16, the US Department of Commerce listed Huawei as an export control entity!
In the next few months, hundreds of Huawei subsidiaries in the United States were also included in the entity list!
Not only that, Trump also lobbied many countries not to let them use Huawei's 5G network solution!
In the same year, Google was forced to use GMS family barrels to suppress sanctions against Huawei's new models!
In mid-May 2020, the United States tried to ban all overseas companies using American semiconductor equipment from OEM chips for Huawei or HiSilicon and other related companies.
Even TSMC is under great pressure from the United States!
On May 27th, 2020, the Canadian court ruled that Meng Wanzhou met the "double criminality" standard of bilateral extradition between the United States and Canada!
……
It is foreseeable that in the next year or two, the United States will continue to increase its sanctions against Huawei!
Trump will never be soft on Huawei. He dreams of bringing down Huawei? !
The United States is the largest country in the world, and Huawei is a private high-tech company. Can Huawei withstand the pressure of the American behemoth?
The answer is yes, Huawei can hold on!
Why can Huawei hold on?
Because Huawei's core (communication equipment manufacturing business) has no American spare parts to do!
As for the consumer electronics business,1400 million China people support it!
Huawei played a game with the United States in the "front line of science and technology war" and gave us the back!
How can we let Huawei fall?
Don't worry, Huawei won't fall!
……
The above is just my personal opinion, welcome to criticize and correct me;
Invited to answer questions in this industry.
Under the pressure of the United States, Huawei's business will definitely be affected, but it will definitely last.
Huawei has its own response to American repression. Speaking of Huawei's response, we can start from the time when ZTE was sanctioned by the United States. As a leader in communication manufacturing, Huawei realized that it would be suppressed by the United States when ZTE was shut down by US sanctions. Therefore, it began to plan ahead. What I have to say here is that ZTE has given Huawei a certain amount of time.
When the United States began to sanction Huawei, Huawei also contracted some industries and began to actively respond to the US blockade.
Now the restrictions in the United States are escalating, and Huawei is also using the last 120 days to stock up in Daliang. According to Huawei, the current stock can be used for 1-2 years.
The biggest problem facing Huawei now is that it can't continue to OEM from TSMC after the United States restricts the upgrade. However, there are SMIC in China that can do OEM work for Huawei. Although there may be some problems in technology and production capacity, Huawei must increase capital and technology to support SMIC to improve its business capabilities.
Huawei's mobile phone business will be affected to some extent, but Huawei will also survive. The technology of mobile phones has been upgraded rapidly, especially the current mobile phone chips. On average, mainstream new Soc comes out every year, and its performance has also improved. For Huawei, it is impossible to get the support of relevant technologies and OEMs, and the upgrade of mobile phone Soc will also be affected to some extent.
Compared with other products, the shipment of mobile phones is the largest, and the accumulated chips will be exhausted. It is estimated that the impact will be great after 1 year.
Operators do not use so many chips in these businesses, and the shipment of equipment is not as good as that of mobile phones. The problem is relatively less serious and can last longer.
Moreover, there are three major operators in China, and the domestic communication market is the largest in the world. At present, domestic operators have increased their procurement efforts for Huawei, which is enough to ensure Huawei's survival.
In the long run, Huawei's crisis is also an opportunity for the domestic semiconductor industry. In fact, the performance upgrade of products still needs the market. In the past, the biggest problem of domestic R&D and production, including SMIC and domestic R&D capacity and technology, and production in mask aligner, was that it could not find a large enough market. Now Huawei is big enough and has enough market share, which will also benefit these enterprises. In the long run, Huawei's crisis can bring great opportunities to the domestic semiconductor industry.
In fact, from a historical point of view, it is also the huge market of the three major domestic operators that has cultivated Huawei and ZTE, and the three major domestic operators have contributed.
All in all, at present, although Huawei may be affected by the upgrade restrictions in the United States in the short term, in the long run, Huawei will definitely survive. And because Huawei is restricted by the United States, the entire domestic industrial chain will also have opportunities for development.
On May 15, the Bureau of Industry and Security of the U.S. Department of Commerce issued an announcement requiring that chips produced by American technologies and equipment must be approved by the United States before they can be sold to Huawei.
Because Huawei's technology in the field of 5G communication is indeed in the leading position in the world, which is not allowed by the United States, it can only be suppressed crazily to maintain its technological hegemony. This year is an election year in the United States. In order to seek re-election, Trump certainly can't leave a bad impression on the people against the epidemic, but only shift people's attention to the Sino-US friction. If we can successfully suppress Huawei, it will leave a strong impression and give extra points to the people and the party.
This American policy is very shameless. It is shameless to suppress an enterprise with the power of one country.
On the other hand, can Huawei withstand the pressure? Of course, the pressure is enormous, but we have to resist it. Huawei responded very early, increasing the inventory of raw materials (including chips), increasing the cooperation of chip companies outside the United States, and continuously increasing research and development efforts.
In terms of OEM, SMIC was transferred from TSMC. SMIC can only supply 14nm process, and 7nm process can only be satisfied by TSMC, the world's number one. As TSMC's second largest customer, there are still a large number of contracts in hand. TSMC can't "out of stock" Huawei in a short time (if it is out of stock, it needs to compensate the sky-high liquidated damages). No matter how the United States threatens TSMC, TSMC still has to consider it (headache).
Of course, no matter how to deal with it, the pressure is still enormous, especially in high-end technology. Domestic technology cannot be compared with developed countries, nor can it be completely replaced.
Of course, China will also give its support. Recently, the state issued the document "Opinions on Accelerating the Improvement of the Socialist Market Economic System", which said:
Compile a new round of national medium-and long-term scientific and technological development plan to enhance the national strategic scientific and technological strength; Building a new system of tackling key problems of national core technology under the condition of socialist market economy: giving priority to supporting medium-and long-term planning and state support of high-tech and strategic science and technology.
All these mean that the country has attached great importance to the development of core technologies and processes and urgently needs to develop its own core technologies.
The life and death of Huawei is not only Huawei's own problem, but also a major issue related to the future development of China's high-tech industry and whether the manufacturing industry can be successfully upgraded. Huawei should not fall, and of course it will not fall!
What kind of crisis is Huawei facing? The latest restrictions introduced by the United States last month are aimed at completely cutting off Huawei's chip sources and destroying Huawei's chip design capabilities. Chips are the "food" for Huawei's development. Broken core will have a huge and comprehensive impact on Huawei's business. Of course, the first thing is the terminal business.
Terminal business has become the biggest source of Huawei's turnover and profit, and consumer business has the greatest demand for chips. If the ban is implemented, Huawei's mobile phone business will be greatly reduced, and the turnover and profit of the whole company will also be greatly affected. Without the support of turnover and profit, Huawei's research and development work will be delayed, and Huawei's tomorrow will be worrying.
If Huawei falls, what impact will it have on China's high-tech industry and manufacturing industry? Huawei is a banner of high-tech industry in China and a model of independent research and development by China enterprises. Huawei has promoted the development of relevant industrial chains in China and high-tech industries in China. If Huawei falls, it will greatly hit the enthusiasm of independent research and development of high-tech enterprises in China, which is not conducive to the overall development and level improvement of high-tech industries in China.
Manufacturing industry is the pillar industry of our country, and intelligent manufacturing is the future of our manufacturing industry. In the "Made in China 2025" plan, the state clearly stated that intelligent manufacturing is the main direction of China's manufacturing industry, and 5G is the foundation of intelligent manufacturing. If Huawei falls, Huawei's dominance in the development of 5G will probably fall into other people's hands, and China's intelligent manufacturing technology will also be controlled by others, and the goals proposed in the plan may probably not be achieved.
How to deal with Huawei's active self-help, while storing a large number of chips and dispersing the source of chips; Help domestic industrial chain related companies to improve their technical level and enhance their supply autonomy.
Mask aligner is the biggest shortcoming of semiconductor manufacturing in China. With the support of the state, domestic universities, scientific research institutions and enterprises have carried out active and effective work to solve the localization problem of high-end mask aligner in the shortest time.
From the point of view of chat: the attack from the United States will have a huge adverse impact on Huawei's normal business activities, but Huawei has taken precautionary measures, so Huawei's difficulties are temporary. Under the leadership of Huawei, Huawei has also experienced great storms. The current difficulties can't shake the foundation of Huawei's survival, because Huawei's most precious resources are people, as well as the strong backing of the motherland and the 65.438+04 billion people.
[No.1 Card Intelligence Bureau] Unique opinion: The suppression of the United States has never stopped. Huawei is not just Huawei, but the whole of China. China people are best at persistence, breakthrough and struggle, so are enterprises in China. Huawei is a powerful enterprise with China characteristics. The current situation will inevitably affect Huawei's business development, but this is temporary, which is both an opportunity and a challenge for Huawei. In the long run, it will bring new breakthroughs to Huawei.
1. Being suppressed is also Huawei's strength. Because the strength is strong enough, the United States has already felt the threat, so it has been doing some actions that it thinks are benign and has introduced a series of policies to stop Huawei's development.
I don't know that the more "war" Huawei is, the more prepared it is behind the boycott.
2. Opportunities and Challenges For Huawei, the suppression has affected the rapid expansion of business to a certain extent and affected the interests of the whole enterprise. However, at the same time, it also forced Huawei to increase its investment in R&D, master its own core technology and bring new breakthroughs.
Whether it is system, chip or production, there will be breakthroughs, but it will take a long time; Therefore, for Huawei, in addition to increasing R&D investment, it also promotes cooperation with other countries to reduce the short-term impact.
For Huawei, it is not without advantages. Take the current 5G technology. At present, Huawei, as the world's top enterprise in 5G technology, has strength. As far as pure 5G is concerned, the United States will need to pay patent fees to Huawei. Regardless of this cost issue, at least in terms of 5G technology, it is difficult for the United States to resist the development of Huawei.
In addition, there are many large enterprises, operators and caring groups in China that provide necessary support to Huawei when it needs it.
Conclusion: This road may be very difficult and will go through many twists and turns, but Huawei will definitely find a breakthrough, survive this difficult period and finally win. China and its people in China are supporting and helping Huawei to spend it together. I believe that Huawei will eventually find an opportunity to have its own core technology research and development capabilities and will not be resisted by the United States.
China is the loneliest company suppressed by the United States. Why do you say that?
1. Huawei has developed a research and development route. Because the R&D route makes many "tall" people in China hate him. Because of his success, these high prices all seem to be such failures!
However, there are more and more companies engaged in research and development recently, and this alone is not enough to pull hatred!
2. Huawei's actual and virtual equity, as well as not listing! This is the most deadly. Huawei has few friends in China. Because capital can't get in, why should capital speak for you! Huawei spends its profits on research and development in a large area, and it must be based on not paying dividends in a large area. That is, on the basis of not listing. This leads to the capital watching Huawei make money, and no one else can benefit except Huawei people! Capital has never been comprador, and it has already given Huawei face when it rains!
Not to mention abroad. Huawei is so sleepy inside and outside!
But is Huawei dangerous? Don't!
Huawei is not a mobile phone company, but a communication company. Huawei's mobile phone profits will not exceed $2 billion. Where are the tens of billions of profits? Communication business! We'll analyze it after we know this!
Market: Which country is the largest communication market in the world? China! There is no doubt that Huawei's communication technology has no obstacles. Only ZTE can barely pull the wrist. Cisco and Ericsson are both almost acquired figures. Samsung has a bigger gap!
In this case, Huawei can get domestic orders. Have spare capacity to fight for world orders again! This is the foundation that Huawei can't collapse!
Software: because of the jurisdiction of the United States, it is unreasonable and belongs to a typical power. In addition, the WTO has long been paralyzed by the United States. What can't use American software can only scare foreign companies. Huawei can completely ignore it!
Hardware: Now many people question the hardware. If MediaTek and TSMC are threatened by the United States not to export 5 nm and 7 nm chips to Huawei, will Huawei stop production? The strongest SMIC in China can only produce 14 nano-chips! This is meaningful for mobile phones. Huawei's mobile phone market share may really be extremely declining. But Huawei's main force is not mobile phones, but communication technology. The key point is that communication technology has low requirements for heat dissipation, and all of them are 14 nanometer chips. This SMIC chip is enough.
Huawei has been sanctioned these days, which has led to arrogance in the United States. Apple harvested Tencent and finally broke the fantasy of other companies. I thought I could sit back and watch Huawei block the gun in front and make money in the back. Giving in to Apple has made it worse! So for the first time, they began to unite and contribute to Huawei.
Huawei will certainly survive this crisis!
Don't care too much. The more you care about him, the brighter the west and the brighter the east. Heroes are not afraid of being useless, but they are afraid that they are not heroes. The Russians screwed up their election computer network that time, and he couldn't find a way to suppress it. I said, impossible, I don't have that ability, don't blame me. How sorry I am.
Huawei is the leader of high-tech enterprises in China, with world-leading technology level. Huawei is now at the forefront of the Sino-US science and technology war. The U.S. imperialists suppressed Huawei in order to maintain its technological hegemony and curb the development of China. The U.S. imperialists spared no effort to suppress Huawei and did everything they could. If Huawei falls, it will be a heavy blow to the development of science and technology in China. In this battle of life and death, Huawei has no retreat, and China has no retreat. I firmly believe that under the strong leadership of our party and under the guidance of superb art of struggle, we will certainly be able to give full play to the spirit of resisting US aggression and aiding Korea and defeat US imperialism in one fell swoop. China people do not believe in evil and are not afraid of evil, and will not be overwhelmed by any difficulties, but will overwhelm all difficulties; Not defeated by any enemy, but defeated by all enemies. Huawei will win and China will win!
Under the pressure of the United States, I think Huawei can survive. Although it will have an impact on its business development in the short term, in the long run, it can't beat Huawei at all, because it will also drive the development of domestic industrial bonds and will definitely last.
There are several reasons why Huawei has withstood so many series of repression in the United States.
1. Huawei has prepared for a rainy day. As we all know, from April 20 18, the US government banned ZTE from purchasing sensitive products from American enterprises in the next seven years. Finally, with the efforts of all parties, ZTE announced the lifting of the ban in July 20 18, but after receiving a huge unfair fine.
At this time, ZTE's colleague Huawei realized the seriousness, began to plan ahead and began to hoard a lot of goods. Later, Huawei was suppressed and upgraded. Until today, it has become more and more serious. Fortunately, it has made some preparations in advance, and Huawei can hold on for a while.
Second, the support of the three major domestic operators Huawei is the world's leading provider of information and communication technology (ICT) solutions. Although the mobile phone business has been sanctioned by the United States in all aspects, it has received strong support from the three major domestic operators in other communication hardware equipment, including Huawei's 5G technology, which belongs to two companies in the world.
In this regard, the three major domestic operators need to build hardware, especially the 5G base station that has been under construction in recent years, which requires a lot of hardware. The three major operators have placed many orders with Huawei, and the procurement efforts are very strong. This business can guarantee Huawei's survival.
In fact, it can also be said that it is the three major operators, which have trained Huawei and ZTE. The three major operators in China have made considerable contributions, saying that they have to rely on their own people if something goes wrong.
Third, the support of other semiconductor companies at home and abroad Although the United States refuses to provide Huawei with technology, chips, foundry and other services, there are many other countries and domestic semiconductor chip companies around the world. Although the technology of these companies is not more mature and excellent than that of America, it is enough to support Huawei for some time.
What seems to be a total ban on Huawei has actually stimulated suppliers in China and other countries. Because their spring has come, they can make full use of the pressure of the United States on Huawei and strive to become a supplier of Huawei. If this business is to succeed, it will not only solve Huawei's supply chain problems, but also make a lot of profits, which is actually a win-win situation. It can be said that US sanctions will basically not affect Huawei's business.
Fourth, the United States cannot impose sanctions for a long time. There will always be a day when the two sides negotiate. Why does the United States want such a rogue sanctions blockade? In the final analysis, it is not for the benefit. As people often say, "as long as money can solve things, it is not a big deal." Personally, I think ZTE is not a fine from America, but a blackmail. In the end, a country and an enterprise still have to sit down and talk about conditions.
Is nothing more than interest. With the help of the state, other enterprises will make persistent efforts. If they give it some money, the ban will be lifted. I believe this is only temporary, and it can't last long. After all, we live on the same earth. Huawei has a lot of technology, which is also the envy of the United States. They also want to use them. If they are all blocked, it doesn't mean they are blocking themselves.
Summary: After the above analysis, Huawei is far-sighted and has reduced many losses. Although Huawei is having a hard time for the time being, I believe it will certainly survive. Just like the original prosperity, with the support of so many patriotic enterprises and ordinary people, it will surely get better and better.