Compared with the first batch of lists targeting Trump’s vote base in the Midwest, the second and third batches have a completely different direction. They target high-tech companies that have a greater impact on the U.S. economy. The purpose is to U.S. government pressure.
Benefits are good, and the concepts of semiconductors and large aircraft are shining brightly in A-shares. What is the logic behind it? Is there any value in participating in this benefit?
1. There are other plans to suppress "Made in China 2025"!
The semiconductor industry is one of the six core industries in Trump's "America First" agenda. They include my country's semiconductors and other new generation information technologies exported to the United States into categories subject to increased tariffs.
Not long ago, the US Secretary of Commerce stated that China’s vigorous development of semiconductors threatens the United States’ global leadership.
Judging from the breakdown of U.S. exports to China, semiconductors, aerospace, and soybeans occupy an important position.
Based on the background of “lack of chips and oil”, semiconductor chips are China’s most important shortcomings in the high-tech field.
So, it is not difficult to see that one of the purposes of Trump's initiative to stir up trouble this time is to intervene in the development of high-end manufacturing such as semiconductors, strangle it in the cradle, and further mention the export ratio. In order to make profits for his own wealth and exchange for precious votes.
A deeper understanding is to suppress "Made in China 2025" and interfere with the speed of China's rise.
2. It’s just a fool’s errand, “Chinese chips” are heading against the wind!
From "Made in China" to "Intelligent Made in China", there are many years of passive situation behind it.
In addition to suffering from huge patent restrictions, it also greatly limits the profitability of Chinese companies in the international market.
What is gratifying is that the "engineer dividend" has successfully allowed China to get rid of low-end manufacturing. The number of PCT patent applications has been equal to that of Japan and is quickly catching up with the United States. "Intelligent Made in China" has a growing voice!
In addition to the "engineer dividend", policy support is unprecedentedly huge, and the semiconductor industry has become a national strategic development project.
"Made in China 2025" clearly states that my country's chip self-sufficiency rate should reach 40% in 2020 and reach the benchmark of 50% in 2025.
The only conclusion is: Chinese chips are an important weapon of the country.
China has already focused on supporting semiconductors through the National Integrated Circuit Fund (the first phase exceeded 130 billion yuan), covering important companies in the entire industrial chain of IC design, wafer manufacturing, packaging and testing, equipment and materials .
In 2018, the second phase of fundraising for the National Integrated Circuit has also been launched, with an estimated scale of 200 billion yuan.
With the power of the whole country, "China Chip" is destined to go against the wind!
3. Import substitution, “Chinese chips” have a bright future!
With the entry of "Black Swan", in addition to counter-sanctions on chip imports, the final solution is still to achieve import substitution of domestic "chips" as soon as possible.
So, the chip concept cannot just look at how beautifully A shares have risen today. The key is how to rearrange the golden opportunities behind this "import substitution".