Text/Autobots Scroll
From July 23rd, 2020, commercial vehicle stocks in China were fully liberalized compared with foreign investment. Is the moat of China brand strong? Does foreign capital take the lead in the new fuel cell track?
Unlike passenger cars, commercial vehicles are now dominated by independent brands, with a share of 95%. From 20 18 to 20 19, the sales of commercial vehicles in China hit record highs, and even the COVID-19 epidemic failed to stop this trend. Some organizations predict that the sales of heavy trucks will exceed 654.38+0.4 million vehicles in 2020, which will not only hit a record high, but also account for 60% of the total sales of heavy trucks in the world.
Autobots believe that it is difficult for foreign capital entering China to catch up with the window of bull market at this time. Although some organizations believe that the 20021heavy truck is still expected to continue to prosper, considering the super-car-changing cycle that started in September 20 16, the "super-car-changing cycle" in the second half of 20021or in 2022 will come to an end.
Commercial vehicles, especially medium and heavy trucks, have strong regional characteristics, but some enterprises have done well in internationalization: Daimler ranks first in the market share of heavy trucks in Europe and America, and Mann and Volvo have also performed well on the road of globalization. But how did it get into today's situation in China market?
Price barrier
The average price of heavy trucks in China is less than 300,000 yuan, and the price of heavy trucks of international mainstream brands is more than 600,000 yuan. The price system of domestic heavy trucks in China is the result of independent brand competition and has its own set, which has little to do with the price anchoring of international brand products.
Compared with the benchmark developed market, with the evolution of road transport demand in China and the improvement of young drivers' requirements for configuration, the demand for high-end heavy trucks is on the rise, but the price is still the biggest factor limiting the sales of foreign brands.
After the implementation of the national six emission standards, China's emission standards are in line with Europe and the United States. The national six emission standards, especially the national six B standard, are stricter than the current emission standards in the United States and Europe. The direct import of overseas heavy trucks to domestic sales requires additional technical improvement and calibration, which will greatly increase the cost.
Some organizations believe that it is more reasonable for foreign investors to operate overseas brands in China in the form of sole proprietorship or joint venture with higher share ratio, and make full use of China's cost-effective industrial facilities to reduce manufacturing costs, improve cost performance and accelerate the expansion of the high-end heavy truck market.
In recent years, China heavy truck enterprises have also launched many high-end products, which are characterized by large displacement, strong power, automatic transmission, light weight, air suspension and high comfort cab configuration ... Representative models include Jiefang J7, National Heavy Duty Truck Shandeka, Dongfeng Tianlong flagship, etc. Domestic high-end heavy trucks have penetrated into express delivery, express delivery, LTL logistics and other scenes, but seepage velocity is not so good. For example, in 20 13 years, the annual sales volume of Shandeka C7H was only 12000, and it is estimated that the sales volume will exceed 30,000 in 2020. Jiefang J7 officially entered the mass sales year in 20 19, and it is expected to hit the target of 1 10,000 vehicles in 2020, but its proportion is still very low compared with the total of125,000 to140,000 vehicles.
In terms of price, the manufacturer's guide prices of China Heavy Duty Truck Shandeka, faw liberation J7 and Dongfeng Tianlong flagship KX are 550,000 yuan, 550,000 yuan and 530,000 yuan respectively; The manufacturer's guide prices of Mercedes-Benz Actros, MAN TGX, Volvo FM and Scania P series are 850,000 yuan, 670,000 yuan, 800,000 yuan and 900,000 yuan respectively, and the price difference is wide.
It will be a protracted war for international brands to enter the commercial vehicle market in China. When it comes to the development of commercial vehicle industry, there is an unavoidable topic, that is, hydrogen energy in fuel cells.
Hydrogen energy battlefield
Compared with diesel heavy trucks and electric heavy trucks, fuel cell heavy trucks have the advantages of zero emission, heavy load and long cruising range. Gan Yong, an academician of China Academy of Engineering, predicted that by 2050, more than 50% of heavy trucks will be driven by hydrogen fuel cells. Some people in the industry shouted: "hydrogen energy, heavy trucks win the world."
According to the White Paper on Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry in China, hydrogen energy will become an important part of China's energy system. In 2050, hydrogen energy will account for about 10% of the energy system, the demand for hydrogen will reach 60 million tons, the number of hydrogen refueling stations will exceed 10000, and the FCV output will reach 5.2 million vehicles/year, with broad development prospects.
Bloomberg predicts that after 30 years, the cost of hydrogen can be reduced to compete with natural gas. According to DOE data, it is estimated that in 2050, when the price of hydrogen drops to USD 5/kg and the sales volume reaches 654.38 million+vehicles, the fuel cell heavy truck can achieve TCO parity. Considering that the market size of heavy trucks in China is four times that of the United States, it is estimated that China will realize the parity of ownership cost of fuel cell heavy trucks and fuel heavy trucks within 10 years.
In 20 17, China Heavy Duty Truck released the first fuel cell port heavy truck prototype. Toyota hydrogen fuel heavy truck is planned to produce 10 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020, and the production schedule of Hyundai and Daimler hydrogen energy heavy trucks has been postponed to 2023.
Recently, Toyota Motor Corporation announced the establishment of "Joint Fuel Cell System R&D (Beijing) Co., Ltd." with five companies including Yihuatong, China FAW, Dongfeng Motor, BAIC and Guangzhou Automobile to carry out the research and development of commercial vehicle fuel cell systems.
By the end of 20 19, China has promoted more than 6,500 fuel cell vehicles and built more than 50 hydrogen refueling stations. The subsidy policy is adjusted to select demonstration cities or regions, and carry out demonstrations around the technical research and industrial application of key components. During the 4-year demonstration period, the demonstration cities will be rewarded by means of "substituting awards".
One of the reasons why the industry pays so much attention to fuel cell commercial vehicles is the demonstration effect of the capital market. American startup truck company Nikola (Nikola? Car company) recently listed on Nasdaq. At present, the company's market value has reached $654.38+03.2 billion without delivering cars, and it is known as the second "Tesla". Because it and Tesla put the famous scientist "nikola tesla? Tesla) "s first and last name.
Nikolai Automobile was founded on 20 15, and its business is the development and construction of pure electric trucks, hydrogen heavy trucks, L4-class automatic driving, power grid energy storage and hydrogen refueling stations. The company also provides electric heavy trucks and fuel cell heavy trucks to meet the needs of short-distance and long-distance markets. They cooperated with Iveco to produce electric heavy trucks, which are expected to be mass-produced in the first quarter of 20021,while fuel cell heavy trucks are expected to be produced in small batches in the first quarter of 2023.
At present, the beer giant Anheuser-Busch InBev and the global chain enterprise Wal-Mart have reached logistics cooperation with it, with orders exceeding 14000 and the amount exceeding 100 billion US dollars. The innovation of Nicholas's business model is to expand the market by bundling rental services.
For the international commercial vehicle giants, it is wise to enter the China market as soon as possible to lay out the fuel cell industry. In the past few years, the development of pure electric vehicles in China is a good reference. China's heavy truck market accounts for more than half of the world, and it has advantages in scale and cost reduction.
As we all know, it is the success of their strategic layout in China that has supported the soaring share price of Tesla. Now, there is another Nicolai car in the commercial vehicle field. The difference is that Tesla already had an explosive product when it was widely known. S, and Nicholas's products still stay on "paper". This means that it is not too late for China and international commercial vehicle enterprises. (Text/"Autobots" scrolling, some pictures are from the network) Copyright statement This article is the exclusive original manuscript of "Autobots Media", and the copyright belongs to "Autobots Media".
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.