Would these two be similar if they applied for appearance patents?

It may be similar, but you should still be able to get a certificate if you apply for a design patent. Depending on the degree of innovation, the scope of claims and brief descriptions can vary depending on how they are written.

The structure is similar, but there is a small tail on the upper left side. This will give you a chance to argue, but the chance is small.

It is best to find something from the past to invalidate it. Most of China's appearance patents are still invalid, because when applying for appearance patents in China, substantive examination will not be carried out. This means that many identical or similar appearance patents have been applied for, and appearance patents will be reviewed after the fact. Yes, the patent office will conduct strict examination only after infringement, and generally those who apply will get a certificate.