002548 Jin Xinnong Analysis
Shenzhen Jin Xinnong Feed Co., Ltd. is an enterprise mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of pig feed. The company's main products include pig feed, pig feed Concentrate feed, pig premix, etc. From 2007 to 2009, the company's business scale, sales volume, and market share ranked among the top Chinese pig feed manufacturers, and its market share of creep feed ranked first among China's creep feed market segments. , at the same time, the company's subsidiary Yuanda Animal Husbandry ranks first in production and sales of feed enterprises in Heilongjiang Province; the company's pig feed production and sales rank among the top three pig feed enterprises in Guangdong Province; the company's subsidiary Shanghai Chengnong pig feed production and sales ranks first The top three pig feed manufacturers in Shanghai. In 2005, the "Early Weaning Piglet Feed" series products developed by the company were awarded the "China Feed Major Scientific and Technological Progress and Application Award" by the Feed Economics Professional Committee of the China Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery Economics Society, becoming the only one in the country. For the creep feed product that won this honor, the company has successfully obtained two invention patents for "a piglet milk replacer feed" and "super early weaning piglet feed" in this core technology.
Ping An Securities: The company's EPS from 2012 to 2014 is expected to be 0.49, 0.57, and 0.79 yuan, corresponding to the PE of the closing price of 10.75 yuan on November 16, which are 22.1, 18.8, and 13.6 times respectively. In 2013, the company faced the opportunity of consolidation in the feed industry and was expected to achieve leapfrog development; in 2014, the pig breeding business was expected to increase in volume and become a new profit growth point, which was covered for the first time and given a "recommended" rating.
Dongxing Securities: The company also announced that the company's net profit for this year was 63.0119 million yuan-85.9254 million yuan, an increase of 10%-50%, corresponding to EPS of 0.42 to 0.61 yuan. As the scale of pig breeding increases, the feed industry will show characteristics such as increased concentration, expanded product scale and refined varieties, and comprehensive marketing services. The company is committed to the research and development and sales of cost-effective and high-quality feed. We believe that the company will With its leading edge in creep materials and increasingly improved marketing capabilities, it enjoys an increase in share brought about by increased industry concentration. The EPS from 2012 to 2014 is expected to be 0.49 yuan, 0.59 yuan and 0.78 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 24 times, 20 times and 15 times, giving it a "recommended" rating for the first time.
Reported on November 20, 2012, the prices of major domestic bulk raw materials have increased significantly, and feed corn has been at a high price. Compared with the same period last year, the market price of corn has increased by more than 12%; due to domestic wheat The increase in usage has caused the price of wheat by-products to rise generally; the price of soybean meal has been on a rapid upward trend since the end of the second quarter due to external factors such as external factors; although the price of fish meal has fallen somewhat at the beginning of the year, it has been rising since the second quarter. , the price trend of fish meal has also been in a rapid upward trend. Affected by comprehensive factors such as rising raw material prices, high logistics costs, increased energy costs, and continued rising labor costs, the cost pressure in the feed industry has increased significantly, and competition among feed companies has become increasingly fierce.
In the first half of 2012, pig breeding entered a weird "pig cycle". At the beginning of the year, a large area of ??piglet epidemic diarrhea broke out in China, which significantly reduced the survival rate of piglets at the beginning of the year. However, driven by the benefits of last year's highly profitable pig raising cycle, the number of live pigs and reproductive sows continued to increase slowly in the first half of this year. Pig stocks are still in oversupply, and pig slaughter prices have continued to fall since the end of the first quarter. Coupled with rising feed costs and labor, land and other resource costs, pig farming profits have shrunk significantly compared with the same period last year.
2012 is Jin Xinnong’s “execution year” and a year of “increasing revenue and reducing expenditure”. It is also the first year for the company to fully implement the “1036 Plan”. During the reporting period, the company's various tasks were carried out in an orderly manner focusing on the "annual business goals and business ideas". The company always adheres to the market-oriented approach, constantly strengthens brand building and improves the company's brand awareness; strengthens the construction and management of the marketing team, and increases the development of new customers, especially large-scale pig farms; continues to increase investment in product research and development; continuously Strengthen the construction of corporate culture and establish a long-term human resources reserve mechanism; the company actively promotes the construction of fundraising projects; at the same time, the company's investment in pig farming has accelerated the pace of progress.
From January to June 2012, the company sold a total of 205,700 tons of feed, an increase of 33.35% compared with the same period last year. However, due to large fluctuations in raw materials, the gross profit margin of feed products decreased by 0.73 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Due to the continued downturn in the pig market in the first half of the year, the gross profit from pig sales dropped by 19.19% compared with the same period last year. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 818,067,415.24 yuan, an increase of 34.2% over the same period last year, and the comprehensive gross profit margin decreased by 0.98 percentage points. During the reporting period, in order to give full play to the functions of the management department, the number of management personnel increased, and the corresponding expenses also increased. At the same time, R&D investment continued, and management expenses increased by 48.46% compared with the same period last year. The operating profit was 37.0025 million yuan, an increase compared with the same period last year. 24.79%, realizing a net profit attributable to the parent company of 32.4768 million yuan, an increase of 29.84% compared with the same period last year.
In the past month, Jin Xinnong’s daily K-line has been consolidating on a platform, and the daily sub-chart indicators have shown signs of improvement. Looking at the weekly K-line, after ten shares were increased and five shares were ex-rights, it has been running In a small box, the decline from the end of November to the beginning of December 2012 seemed to be digging a hole. The stock price hit a new low, but the DIFF line in MACD did not hit a new low, causing a divergence. Various signs showed that the main funds were in the bottom area. If there is action, once it breaks through the annual line, after a short period of consolidation, there will be a beautiful market trend. This requires an opportunity, the right time, the right location, and the right people;
According to the above analysis, if you hold it now You should continue to hold this stock and wait for the market to come.
2013-1-16
The above are all copied from the software. I didn’t read them. You can check them yourself. The following is my analysis based on the K-line graphics. If It's useful to you, give me the best answer.