Since physicist Richard Feynman first proposed how to use the properties of quantum mechanics to revolutionize computing in 1982, quantum computing has become one of the most promising technologies. Quantum computers, which have tens or even hundreds of times the computing power of ordinary computers, are a research hotspot that has attracted countless technology companies, large academic groups, and governments around the world. Companies and even countries are focusing on the advantages that quantum computing systems have over today's "classical" computing systems, achieving so-called "quantum superiority."
However, although Google claimed to have reached this milestone two years ago, the achievement of quantum superiority did not solve a practical problem that is impossible for classical computers to solve, and IBM and other companies soon showed that , some of the purported advantages of Google’s quantum computing system could be offset by tweaks to classical computers.
Quantum mechanics is a branch of physics that studies the behavior of subatomic particles. Quantum computing using mysterious quantum mechanics transcends the characteristics of the limits of classical Newtonian physics and is instrumental in achieving exponential computing power. Growth has been a long-standing dream in the tech world.
Classic computers use bits as the unit of information stored. Bits are binary, and a bit represents either "0" or "1". However, in a quantum computer, the situation becomes completely different. Quantum computers use quantum bits (qubits) as the unit of information. Qubits can represent "0", "1", and can also be "both 1 and 0". "This means that a quantum computer can superpose all possible combinations of "0" and "1" so that the states of "1" and "0" exist at the same time.
In other words, the 2-bit register in a classical computer can only store one binary number at a time, while the 2-bit qubit register in a quantum computer can maintain the superposition of all 4 states at the same time. When the number of qubits is n, a quantum processor performing one operation on n qubits is equivalent to performing 2n operations on classical bits, which greatly increases the processing speed of quantum computers. Compared with traditional computers, quantum computers can achieve exponential expansion and explosive growth in computing power, forming "quantum superiority."
In addition to improving computing power, another core advantage of quantum computing is reducing energy consumption. It is well known that energy consumption is a major technical problem in classical computers. The processor performs an XOR operation on two input strings of data, and the output result is only one set of data. After calculation, the amount of data will naturally be reduced. According to the law of conservation of energy, the disappearing data signal will inevitably generate heat.
Therefore, the more integrated classical computing is, the more difficult it is to dissipate heat. As Moore's Law approaches its asymptotic limit, future improvements in computing power can only rely on stacking more computing chips, which will lead to greater energy consumption.
But in quantum computing, no matter how many sets of data are input, the output will still be the same set of data. The amount of data does not change during the calculation process, and there is no energy consumption in the calculation process. This means that energy consumption occurs only at the last measurement. Classical computing will consume energy during the calculation of every bit.
With the core advantages of increasing computing power and reducing energy consumption, quantum computing is bound to be a new technology that breaks away from the current development technology path of the computer industry and subverts the future.
Currently, for some traditional industries, the computing pressure faced by a large number of R&D links has emerged, especially those industries that conduct R&D in the molecular field. With the computing power of existing human technology, the time consumed and huge costs, such as biopharmaceuticals, chemicals, energy, etc.; there are also other technology industries that have high requirements for computing power, which are also areas where quantum computing can be used for commercial applications, such as search, digital security, artificial intelligence, Machine learning and the currently popular metaverse, etc.
Undoubtedly, without super-computing technology such as quantum technology, it would be difficult for these industries and fields to rely on current chips and computer computing technology to process huge amounts of data and achieve ultra-long-distance and ultra-high data transmission. High-speed, ultra-secure transmission, computing and applications.
Taking computational chemistry as an example, simulating a relatively basic molecule such as caffeine would require a conventional computer with 10^48 bits, which is equivalent to 10 of the number of atoms on Earth. Simulating penicillin would require 10^86 bits—a number greater than the number of atoms in the observable universe. A conventional computer would never be able to handle such a task, but in the quantum realm, such calculations are possible.
Currently, quantum computing is receiving more and more attention. As an emerging technology that breaks Moore's Law and achieves exponential growth in computer computing power, it has attracted countless technology companies and large academic groups to invest in it.
In fact, although predictions for the future of the quantum computing industry vary, almost all opinions believe that its scale will be huge. As Doug Finke, operator of the quantum information tracking website Quantum Computing Report, said: “I think the quantum computing market will reach $1 billion by around 2025, and may reach $50 billion by 2030. -$10 billion." The latter is worth 10-20% of today's high-performance computing market. According to Honeywell estimates, quantum computing could be worth $1 trillion over the next 30 years.
Based on the broad market prospects of quantum computing, it is not difficult to understand why the commercialization of quantum computing can attract a large amount of public and private investment. Mainstream venture capital and large corporations are already betting on private quantum computing companies. Companies the size of Google, IBM, and Honeywell are investing heavily in quantum computing, including self-research, private equity investment, and cooperation. A recent report claimed that there will be more than $1 billion in private investment in quantum computing research in 2021 alone.
Among them, most projects and companies are in early stages, mostly in seed round, A round, or even incubation/acceleration status. It is worth noting that the subject of investment in quantum computing is very special. Due to the super computing power of quantum computing and the encryption of the communication network composed of quantum cryptography, "national team investment" plays an indispensable driving force in it. .
In fact, in addition to the participation of mainstream investment institutions and large companies, the role of "national teams" such as the U.S. DOE, CIA, NASA, Canadian STDC, and Telstra Telecom have played a significant role in promoting it. They promote scientific research and commercialization of quantum computing in the form of donations, investments, and incubations. One of Google's quantum computing projects, for example, involves working with NASA to apply the technology's optimization capabilities to space travel.
In addition, the U.S. government is preparing to invest approximately US$1.2 billion in the National Quantum Initiative (NQI) project. The project was officially launched in late 2018 to provide an overall framework for quantum information science research and development in academia and the private sector. The UK National Quantum Technology Plan (NQTP) was launched in 2013 with a commitment of ￡1 billion over 10 years. The plan has now entered its second phase.
For our country, although our country’s technology companies entered the field of quantum computing later than the United States, in recent years, industry leading companies and scientific research institutes have also begun to make arrangements in the field of quantum computing. During the "Two Sessions" in 2021, quantum information technology was mentioned for the first time and has become one of China's core technologies for breaking through the "14th Five-Year Plan". It is also one of the seven strategic areas of "national security and comprehensive development".
In terms of technology giants, Tencent entered the field of quantum computing in 2017 and proposed the use of "ABC2.0" technology layout, which uses artificial intelligence, robots and quantum computing to build future-oriented infrastructure.
Huawei has been engaged in quantum computing research since 2012. Quantum computing is an important research field of the Data Center Laboratory of Huawei Central Research Institute. Research directions include quantum computing software, quantum algorithms and applications, etc. Alibaba conducts full-stack R&D with hardware as the core by establishing laboratories. On the other hand, it builds an ecosystem and explores and implements applications with partners in the upstream, midstream and downstream of the industry chain.
It can be seen that both technology companies and start-up companies have high hopes and enthusiasm for quantum computing.
The disruptive nature of quantum computing is foreseeable, but there is still a long way to go before quantum computing can truly be put into useful production and life. Since the technology is still in the development stage, when quantum technology is in the process of moving from academic implementation to corporate commercialization, the industry still faces the practical dilemma of technological breakthroughs and large-scale mass production.
Currently, the commercialization of quantum computing is still in the technology exploration stage. Although quantum computing has made some major breakthroughs at the theoretical and experimental levels, some countries, including the United States, Europe, and China, have made different breakthroughs and achievements at the quantum technology level, and have also had some corresponding commercial applications. But at present, these commercial applications are still in their early stages, or in the exploration and application stage of technology.
For example, qubits require quantum coherence to form quantum entanglement, which is equivalent to the need for gain transistors in classical computers. But how to achieve large-scale and coherence is the biggest challenge facing quantum computer systems. These problems are difficult to solve even in theory because quantum information cannot be copied and the subsystems in quantum computers are entangled with each other, which causes all designs to be thought of from a global perspective.
Moreover, quantum computers, which are currently not perfect, still need more improvements. Shallow quantum circuits require higher gate fidelity and more stability to limit decoherence. Quantum annealing machines require improvements in connectivity, control accuracy and coherence time.
From a commercialization perspective, currently few companies in the quantum technology track have achieved cumulative profits. Due to high technical barriers, companies often invest billions in R&D, but products are still undergoing trial and error, making commercialization difficult to develop. Take IonQ as an example. As a unicorn company focusing on quantum computing, according to the financial data released by the company, in 2019 and 2020, the company achieved revenue of US$200,000 and US$0, while its net loss was US$8.926 million respectively. , 15.424 million US dollars, with a very low degree of commercialization, and most of the investment funds are research and development expenses.
After tracking more than 200 quantum technology start-ups, Doug Fink predicts that the vast majority will cease to exist within 10 years, at least not in their current form. He said: "There may be some winners, but there will also be many losers. Some will go out of business, some will be acquired, and some will be merged."
You can watch the drama, although the current quantum computing technology has achieved It has made a series of breakthroughs and is in the process of continuous breakthroughs. Governments around the world have also attached great importance to it and invested a lot of financial and human resources. However, there is still some way to go before true large-scale commercialization. Large-scale commercialization requires technical stability, which is essentially different from experimental and small-scale applications.
The core problem faced by quantum computing technology at present is still the problem in the empirical physics stage. The theoretical physics stage has been basically mature, but when entering the empirical physics stage, what we need is to make this elusive and extremely unpredictable Stable quantum entanglement can become a masterable "stability" technology.
Overall, the future of quantum computing is optimistic, and everything about the commercialization of quantum computing has just begun. We may only have discovered the tip of the quantum computing iceberg so far, regardless of which technology company the first practical application of quantum computing comes from, or whether it comes from other data services companies, banks, pharmaceutical companies or manufacturers trying to apply the technology. , this race on quantum computing has already begun.