1. The process of economic globalization is unstoppable
Economic globalization is a major trend in the development of the world today. Although it will have twists and turns in the process and some people will oppose it, its momentum is unstoppable. block.
Economic globalization refers to the unprecedented acceleration of the flow of goods, capital, services, technology, information, and labor (talent) around the world, forming a unified world market. There is me in you and you in me. No one can live without the other. After entering the new century, the process of globalization has accelerated, countries have become more open, more interdependent, and more market liberalized.
The most important reason why the momentum of economic globalization is unstoppable and this process will not be interrupted is that the two wheels driving economic globalization keep turning forward. These two forces are unstoppable. . This is the power of marketization and networking, also known as market revolution and technological revolution.
After the end of the Cold War, the scale and speed of world marketization have greatly increased. The former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries have embarked on the road of marketization; China has made great strides in reform and opening up and its market economy; and developed capitalist countries have also loosened their control over the market. The openness of the entire world and the freedom of the market are unprecedented.
The rapid development of the information industry has broken through the limitations of geographical time and space. The Internet has narrowed the distance between countries in the world, accelerated the flow of goods, capital, technology, and information unprecedentedly, and reduced costs unprecedentedly. For example, the cost of a long-distance call from New York to London was US$1 per three minutes in 2001. It is expected to drop to 3 cents by 2010. Networking has greatly promoted the process of economic globalization.
The expansion of multinational corporations is unstoppable and has become the main carrier of economic globalization. Wherever the market conditions are suitable, where the costs are low and the potential is huge, they will advance there. Research shows that there are 64,000 multinational companies in the world. They dominate the world market with their advantages in capital, technology, brand and sales network. They control 1/3 of global production, 2/3 of international trade, and 70% of technology. Patents, 90% of international direct investment. These behemoths are an important driving force behind economic globalization.
The establishment of the WTO and the formation of unified international economic rules have gradually strengthened the binding force on nation-states, which has greatly promoted the process of global trade and investment liberalization.
However, due to the emergence of the negative effects of economic globalization, the widening gap between the North and the South, and the unreasonable international economic and trade rules (these rules are mainly formulated by developed countries), wealth is increasingly moving towards A few rich countries are concentrated, and underdeveloped countries are in danger of being marginalized. The global integration of industrial structures has made some people in developed countries unemployed; the pace of industrialization has made environmental problems more and more prominent. Therefore, since the 1990s, there has been a wave of anti-globalization in the world.
The rise of the anti-globalization wave reminds the world that the globalization process should be adjusted and introspected. Globalization should be given a "humane touch" (in EU language) and globalization should be made a *** Winning an economic globalization that is inclusive and sustainable requires the establishment of a fair, just and reasonable international economic order.
2. The world economy has formed three major entities and three major markets
Together with economic globalization, regional economic cooperation (i.e., regional economic grouping) has become another aspect of world economic development. Important trends.
Currently, there are more than 140 large and small economic cooperation organizations around the world, but the three major entities that play a decisive role in the world economy and occupy the largest market share: the European Union and the North American Free Trade Area and the East Asia Free Trade Area, which is being planned and formed. The rise and fall of the world economy is closely related to these three major regional economic sectors.
After five enlargements, the EU has become the most integrated regional organization today.
The 25 countries have a population of 450 million and a GDP of more than 10 trillion US dollars, accounting for 30% of the world's total GDP. The European Union has established the Eurozone and unified its currency. This is currently the only force that can compete with the United States in the economic field.
The North American Free Trade Area, including the United States, Canada, and Mexico, was officially established in 1994. With a population of nearly 400 million and a GDP of 11 trillion U.S. dollars, it is the world's largest free trade area. It wants to expand to South America, which the United States considers "a more important market than the European Union." If Latin America enters, it will form a large market including 34 countries, 800 million people, and half the world. There will be a tortuous process for South America to join the North American Free Trade Agreement, but it will happen sooner or later.
A bilateral-based East Asia free trade area network is taking shape. At the ASEAN Summit and the "10 3" (the 10 ASEAN countries, China, Japan and South Korea) summit informal meeting held in Singapore in November 2000, the leaders reached a consensus on the establishment of the East Asia Free Trade Area and transferred it to Specific implementation. China and ASEAN have decided to establish a free trade area in 2010, and the Japan-ASEAN free trade area will be finally completed in 2012. On this basis, the East Asia Free Trade Area composed of "10 3" is expected to be completed around 2015 and gradually move towards the more ambitious goal of establishing an "East Asian Economic Community". To achieve this goal, cooperation between China, Japan and South Korea, which account for more than 90% of East Asia's GDP, is crucial. Once the East Asia Free Trade Area is completed, it will become the world's most promising market with one-third of the world's population and a GDP of US$7 trillion. Its scale can form a tripartite situation with the European Union and the North American Free Trade Area.
The world’s three major economic sectors intersect, cooperate and compete with each other. my country's main markets and major trading partners are all within this range. The United States, Europe and Japan account for nearly half of my country's total foreign trade import and export volume. Therefore, it is particularly important to pay close attention to the trends in the world's three largest markets. As some experts said: The motivation, geographical distribution, organizational form, impact and a series of changes in the development of regional economic cooperation will have a decisive role in the direction and pattern of world economic development, and will pose new opportunities and challenges to countries around the world.
3. Four major environments that affect world economic development
Economic development is subject to environmental constraints. There are four major environments that have an important impact on the development of the world economy, namely political environment, market environment, resource environment, and ecological environment.
1. The political environment has a very significant impact on the economy. From the perspective of the entire world political environment, it is conducive to peaceful development. Relations between major powers have entered a stage of development focused on consultation, coordination, and cooperation, and a period of relative stability has emerged since the end of the Cold War. However, local wars, international terrorist activities, ethnic and religious conflicts, and social unrest have all hindered world economic development and increased uncertainties.
2. Market environment, including climate, humanistic environment, labor quality, market consumption potential, labor prices, transportation and communication conditions, corporate reputation, government economic and trade investment policies and openness, legal status, and work efficiency etc. In the list of world emerging markets listed by the United States, China, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey, India, South Africa, Poland, etc. have certain advantages in the market environment. Investors always flock to places with high market openness, high return on investment, and good operating conditions.
3. Resources and environment are related to whether production can be guaranteed, whether operating costs can be reduced, and whether economic development can be sustained in the long term. It is the material foundation. Today, with rapid economic development, people are paying more and more attention to the protection, improvement and development of natural resources such as energy, land, minerals, water, and food. Whether it is a country with poor natural resources like Japan and Singapore, or a country with rich resources like the United States and Russia, resource issues must be taken as a prerequisite when developing the economy and formulating plans. The security issues of the three strategic resources of oil, food and water have increasingly attracted the attention of governments around the world.
4. The ecological environment is the natural environment that human beings rely on for survival. The air pollution and water pollution caused by industrial society have affected the sustainable development of human society. Currently, 1.1 billion people around the world do not have access to clean water. The emergence of acid rain, sandstorms, sustained high temperatures and other epidemics, as well as the epidemic of SARS, avian influenza, mad cow disease and other diseases, have sounded the alarm for mankind. While governments around the world are developing their economies, they are allocating more and more funds to manage and improve the ecological environment. In order for the economy to achieve rapid, healthy, coordinated and sustainable development, it is necessary to create a good four major environments.
4. Scientific and technological progress is the accelerator of world economic growth
Since the 1990s, world science and technology have advanced by leaps and bounds, with electronic information, biotechnology and new materials as the pillars of high-tech industries. Technology has made a series of major breakthroughs, changing the face of the world and promoting the process of economic globalization. In today's world, developing modern science and technology to enhance overall national strength has become the common focus of all countries in the world. Japan has reiterated its slogan of building a nation through science and technology, and Europe has proposed the goal of accelerating its pursuit of catching up with the United States. In terms of science and technology, developed countries have entered a stage of developing high technology and creating new industries, and they are all trying to seize the commanding heights of science and technology.
If the birth of various advanced tools is an extension of human hands, then the emergence of electronic computers is an extension of the human brain. The information technology revolution that is currently evolving is in the ascendant, and its huge effect is such that Americans compare it to the British Industrial Revolution 300 years ago. The peak of the development of information technology and information industry is estimated to last until around 2020, which is a powerful accelerator for promoting industrial structural adjustment, sustained economic growth, and accelerated globalization. At the beginning of the 21st century, world science and technology is accelerating development and fierce competition in four major fields and four commanding heights. These are life sciences and biotechnology, information technology, new material technology and aerospace technology.
American scientists believe that technological change in the next 10 years will exceed the total of the 100 years of the 20th century. Science and technology, especially high technology, are an accelerator for economic development, a key means to enhance national strength, the basis for a prosperous country and strong people, and the most important weapon in the competition for comprehensive national strength in the contemporary world. Experts believe that in the 21st century, the rise and fall of a country and its economic growth will largely depend on its high-tech development level.
5. The unique position and huge risks of finance in the world economy
In the process of economic globalization, the world financial market is developing in the direction of global integration, and financial capital It plays an increasingly prominent role in the world economy.
The flow of capital around the world has accelerated at an unprecedented pace since the 1990s, and the scale is huge. The relaxation of foreign exchange controls in various countries, the opening of their own capital markets, and the expansion of foreign economic and trade cooperation have created good conditions for the rapid entry and exit and free flow of financial capital. Currently, global hot money reaches US$78 trillion, and the global foreign exchange market's daily trading volume reaches US$1.5 trillion to US$2 trillion, of which more than 90% of transactions are short-term capital and engage in various speculations. The opening and globalization of financial markets have brought great convenience to countries’ investment, financing and economic development. However, the uncontrolled development of global financial markets also brings great instability.
The problem brought about by financial globalization is that financial crises often have chain reactions, forming a "domino" effect, which is the internationalization of financial crises. The financial crisis in Mexico quickly spread to other Latin American countries; the financial crisis in Thailand soon spread to Southeast Asian countries and most countries and regions in Asia, affecting the entire world. The frequent occurrence of financial crises reminds all countries in the world to pay attention to the specific conditions of their own countries when opening up their financial markets, improve their ability to withstand financial storms, and strengthen the management system to prevent financial crises.
6. The widening gap between the North and the South between the rich and the poor affects the stable development of the world economy
The biggest negative effect brought about by globalization is the further widening of the gap between the North and the South, which has a negative impact on the stability and development of the world economy. Future developments will have huge adverse impacts.
Due to historical reasons, the unfair international economic order, the imbalance of world development, and the social unrest caused by ethnic and religious issues, the vast number of developing countries, especially the 50 underdeveloped countries, The country's economy is in a state of poverty and backwardness, and some have been marginalized.
According to statistics, the total population of the seven Western countries including the United States, Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Japan accounts for 11% of the world's population, but their GDP accounts for 65% of the world's total. In the rest of the world, the population accounts for 89% of the world's population, but the GDP is only 35% of the world's. The GDP of more than 50 countries in Africa accounts for 1% of the world total, which is equivalent to the assets of General Electric Company in the United States.
Statistics also show that the income gap between the richest 20 and the poorest 20 people in the world was 30:1 in 1960, 60:1 in 1990, and 74:1 in 1999 , has now reached 80:1. The country with the lowest per capita annual income in the world, Congo (DRC), is only US$90, while Switzerland, the country with the highest per capita income, is as high as US$37,930.
Foreign direct investment is also mainly concentrated among developed countries. In 2000, the world's net investment reached 1.5 trillion US dollars, 82% of this investment was allocated to developed countries, and Africa was allocated only 1% of foreign direct investment. In the development of the world economy, the gap between the rich and the poor between the North and the South has widened, causing problems such as social instability, unrest, and dissatisfaction and resentment against rich countries.
In short, the current world economic situation is that the west is strong and the east is weak, the north is rich and the south is poor, and the north is attacking and the south is defending. Countries around the world, especially developing countries, are calling for North-South dialogue, changing the irrational economic order, debt relief, and increasing aid to underdeveloped countries.
7. China has become the driving force behind the world’s economic express train
Over the past 20 years, China has seized the opportunity of economic globalization, accelerated reform, expanded opening up, and become a developing country. One of the countries that has benefited the most from globalization. China's peaceful rise is the most influential event in the 21st century. my country's total foreign trade volume, actual utilization of foreign investment, and national foreign exchange reserves rank among the best in the world. According to World Bank statistics, China's total GDP in 2002 was US$1.2 trillion, ranking sixth in the world. According to data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics in September, China's total GDP in 2003 reached 11,689.8 billion yuan.
While the world economy has grown at an average rate of less than 3% in the past five years, China's economic growth rate has continued to rise at a rate higher than 8%. The Chinese economy has become the locomotive driving economic growth in Asia.
Today, more than 400 of the world's top 500 companies have invested in China, and more and more multinational companies have set up production bases, procurement centers, R&D centers and regional headquarters in China. According to information from the Foreign Investment Department of the Ministry of Commerce in August, the number of R&D centers established by multinational companies in my country has increased rapidly in recent years, with the total number exceeding 600. The cumulative investment in R&D in these R&D centers is approximately US$4 billion. This will play a positive role in expanding my country's foreign economic and technological cooperation, promoting the development of high-tech industries, and promoting investment by multinational companies in China. This shows that multinational companies regard the Chinese market as an important part of the global market. At the same time, there are now thousands of multinational companies in China. As international public opinion has pointed out, the Chinese economy has further increased its weight in the world economy and has become a driving force for world economic growth.
8. The current world economic situation is generally improving
After more than two years of low-speed growth, the world economy has gradually moved from the trough to recovery, and the situation is improving.
At the beginning of the new century, due to problems with the Internet and stock market bubbles formed in the United States in the 1990s, the bubble economy collapsed, causing the world's three major economic locomotives, the United States, Europe and Japan, to slow down at the same time. In 2001 and 2002, there was a recession of low-speed growth. According to statistics from the International Monetary Fund, the world economic growth rate was 4.8% in 2000, but dropped to 2.4% in 2001 and 3.0% in 2002. The world has experienced a decline in both trade and foreign investment. The momentum of cross-border mergers has also weakened significantly.
After nearly three years of adjustments, a series of measures including interest rate cuts, tax cuts, and structural adjustments were adopted. By the second half of 2003, the economies of developed countries such as the United States were showing signs of recovery. The Japanese economy has also woken up from a 10-year slumber and is slowly recovering. Asia's economic growth is strong, reaching 7, which is an economic highlight. Therefore, at the end of 2003, people called the world economy "a train bound for spring."
There are still many uncertainties in the growth of the world economy. It will take some time to completely eliminate the sequelae (structural problems) of the bubble economy. The unemployment rate in developed countries remains high, the dollar is weak, the sequelae of the Iraq War have increased the difficulty of the fight against terrorism, the world situation is unstable, and oil prices remain at high levels. If it remains high, all of this will create variables and adverse effects on future world economic growth.
According to statistics from the International Monetary Fund, the growth rate of the world economy in 2003 reached 3.2%. At the same time, the global economic growth rate is expected to reach 4.6 in 2004, and it is said that it will be raised to 4.9 soon. Whether this optimistic estimate can be realized remains to be confirmed, but what is certain is that the overall development prospects of the world economy are promising.