In addition, people often ask me during roadshows, where are the barriers to large oil refining units? I said that the barriers to large-scale oil refining units are mainly in two links. There are no barriers to technology, so why is there no barrier to technology? Because all our technologies are licensed by patents, either domestic patentees or foreign ones. Where are the main obstacles? I think one is policy support. For example, the total investment of Rong Sheng Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II Plant is about 200 billion yuan, and its own capital is close to 54-55 billion yuan, which is obviously capital-intensive. What commercial banks are willing to compete for is financial support. Where is the most critical barrier? It is policy, and whether you are allowed to do it is the biggest barrier. I have read the memoirs of Formosa Plastics Wang Yongqing. 1970, Formosa Plastics from bottom to top. When it reached a certain level, he had an idea that I would make a large-scale refining device. However, the Kuomintang did not allow it at that time, because Taiwan Province Province was operated by state-owned enterprises such as PetroChina and Sinopec at that time, and you were not allowed to operate it. Twenty years later, 1994, the Kuomintang of Taiwan Province Province released it and gave Formosa Plastics Petrochemical a license to enter a large refinery. Since then, construction has started, and it was completely completed in the 1990s and 2007, with 25 million tons of oil refining and 3 million tons of ethylene. The same is true in our country, where a number of outstanding enterprises will emerge with a market value of hundreds of billions. In essence, the state has given policy support, which I think is the most critical. Without policy support, these enterprises will have nothing if they are allowed to enter and become bigger and stronger. This is the barrier of the first large refinery-policy. The second key point is that the local market should be large enough. Why? For example, in China, there must be more than one or two large-scale oil refining units, and there are already many sets. Because the domestic market is large enough, building a large-scale oil refining unit, part of which is exported and most of which is sold domestically, is equivalent to being able to enter and retreat, ensuring that the products can be basically digested. The whole Asia-Pacific region used to be Japanese, then Korean and then Taiwan Province Province. They have large oil refineries, and the local market is a prerequisite. In this case, large refineries can stand out because of the local market. Therefore, in my understanding, the first barrier of large-scale refining and chemical plants is policy, and the second is to have a relatively large local market, which can digest and accommodate products. Zhejiang Petrochemical has made 20 million tons now, another 40 million tons, and even three phases, 60 million tons and so on, all of which are feasible. These feasible foundations are based on the two foundations I just mentioned, which is my understanding of the barriers of large oil refining units. In addition, regarding the future development, I remember I also put forward a point at the 17 large-scale refining and chemical conference. The market value of10 billion is only the initial stage of these companies. It can be predicted that the free cash flow that these companies can use will exceed tens of billions, which lays a foundation for China chemical enterprises to catch up with the world's advanced chemical enterprises, because only they can use large-scale funds for R&D investment. For example, LG Chem, a well-known oil refining and chemical company in South Korea, started from oil refining and gradually made achievements in the fields of electronics, chips and semiconductors. Therefore, I think that the first step now, especially the design of the first and second phases of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, whether it is Rong Sheng or Tongkun, will go to a higher level. Next, which of these large refining equipment companies will get better and better? Must be on the existing basis, further leap forward, to new materials, go up, this is the most critical driving factor for these big companies to by going up one flight of stairs.
1, the leader of private large-scale refining and chemical industry under historical opportunities.
1. 1, the historical opportunity of private refining and chemical industry
The origin of private large-scale refining and chemical industry comes from the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, when the state opened private enterprises with 1,000-ton refineries. 20 16-20 18, the domestic refining and chemical industry ushered in a boom cycle, and private enterprises were enthusiastic about investing in the refining and chemical industry. After 20 16, the profit trend of private leading polyester enterprises is upward, accumulating funds extending to upstream integration. In this wave of refining and chemical investment peak, they are at the forefront.
During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the state formulated the "Petrochemical Industry Planning and Layout Plan", hoping to reverse the pattern of scattered distribution and weak competitiveness of domestic petrochemical projects through more reasonable planning. The seven planned petrochemical bases are all located in areas with high coastal economic development level and superior port conditions: including Caojing in Shanghai, Ningbo in Zhejiang and Lianyungang in Jiangsu in the Yangtze River Delta; Guangdong Huizhou and Fujian Gu Lei bases in the Pan-Pearl River Delta; Changxing Island in Dalian, Caofeidian Base in Hebei, around Bohai Sea.
This round of typical representative projects of private enterprises, without exception, occupy the most favorable areas of the seven petrochemical bases, including the 20-million-ton Dalian Changxing Island project of Hengli Petrochemical, the 40-million-ton Zhoushan project of Zhejiang Petrochemical and the160,000-ton Lianyungang project of Hong Sheng Petrochemical.
In 2020, Hengli Phase I, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengyi Brunei projects have all been put into production and started to contribute profits to listed companies. 2020Q 1, under the dual influence of falling oil prices and epidemic situation, state-owned refineries generally suffered losses, while large private refineries still made profits, which was in sharp contrast. The proven cost of private large-scale refining and chemical industry is lower than that of existing refining and chemical projects, and the differentiation will be more obvious throughout the year.
However, the domestic oil refining industry is still in a state of deep surplus. In 20 19, the domestic refining capacity was 860 million tons, and the processing crude oil was 649 million tons, and the operating rate was only 75.5%. According to the operating rate of 90%, it is estimated that there is still a surplus of about 20% in domestic refining capacity. Domestic refining and chemical enterprises have to face the pressure of exporting more than 60 million tons of refined oil. The surplus of downstream products is spreading from refined oil to chemicals such as olefins and aromatics.
In this context, we expect that during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the state will be more strict in approving new refining capacity. The large-scale private refining and chemical enterprises that seized the opportunity before occupied the coastal location advantage, and the project adopted the latest generation of refining and chemical technology, which was very competitive and scarce. Zhejiang Petrochemical will increase its scale from 20 million tons to 40 million tons in the next year, and it is expected to increase three projects to 60 million tons in the long term, which is the project that occupies the most resources in this round of private refinery expansion.
1.2, the largest private refining and chemical enterprise with the most policy dividends.
China (Zhejiang) Pilot Free Trade Zone is a regional free trade park established by the State Council in Zhoushan Islands New District, Zhejiang Province on 20 17. We will focus on the development of bulk commodity transit, processing trade, bonded fuel oil supply, equipment manufacturing, aviation manufacturing, international shipping services, international trade and bonded processing with oil as the core.
In March 2020, the State Council approved "Several Measures to Support the Open Development of Oil and Gas Industry Chain in China (Zhejiang) Pilot Free Trade Zone", pointing out that it supports the moderate development of refined oil export business in Zhejiang Pilot Free Trade Zone, allowing qualified refining and chemical integrated enterprises in Zhejiang Pilot Free Trade Zone to carry out non-state-owned trade export of by-product refined oil first, and arrange the export quantity on an annual basis as appropriate.
At present, domestic refined oil exports are subject to quota system. 20 19 only state-owned enterprises such as Sinopec, PetroChina, CNOOC and Sinochem have obtained quotas. Because local and private refineries lag behind Sinopec, PetroChina and other state-owned enterprises in the construction of refined oil distribution network, the restricted export of refined oil has caused great operating pressure to local and private refineries. In April, 2020, Zhejiang Petrochemical has successfully obtained the export quota of 6.5438+0 million tons of low-sulfur marine fuel oil, and it is expected that the export quota of gasoline and diesel will be released in the future. In July, the company obtained the qualification of non-state-owned refined oil export, paving the way for Zhejiang Petrochemical Company to flexibly arrange refined oil production and export sales.
1.3, Zhejiang Petrochemical will form a shareholding structure in which private enterprises hold shares and state-owned enterprises and foreign enterprises jointly invest.
At present, the shareholding structure of Zhejiang Petrochemical is that Rong Sheng Petrochemical (private enterprise) holds 565,438+0%, Tongkun (private enterprise) holds 20%, Juhua Group (state-owned enterprise) holds 20% and Zhoushan Haitou (state-owned enterprise) holds 9%. Zhoushan Haitou shares are planned to be transferred to Saudi Aramco (a foreign company), which will form the shareholding structure of private enterprises, state-owned enterprises and foreign companies in the future, which is conducive to the integration of various resources.
The main holding and shareholding parties, Rong Sheng Petrochemical and Tongkun Co., Ltd. have huge PTA and polyester industrial chains, which can form a whole industrial chain synergy from oil to silk with Zhejiang Petrochemical; Juhua Co., Ltd. is a large chemical state-owned enterprise in Zhejiang Province, representing the state-owned support of Zhejiang Province. Saudi Aramco is a global super crude oil and refining giant, which can bring cooperation in crude oil import, refining technology, sales and trade of refined oil and chemicals.
In terms of refined oil sales, Zhejiang Energy Group and Zhejiang Petrochemical Company jointly established Zhejiang Petroleum Co., Ltd., with Zhejiang Energy holding 60% and Zhejiang Petrochemical Company 40%. Zhejiang Energy Group is a large state-owned power, oil and gas and energy service giant in Zhejiang Province. The joint venture company will build hundreds of gas stations in Zhejiang as an important sales channel for Zhejiang Petrochemical's refined oil products.
In the development of crude oil to chemicals technology, Saudi Aramco and Saudi Basic Industries Company's third-generation crude oil to chemicals technology have achieved nearly 50% direct conversion rate of crude oil to chemicals. The fourth generation technologies are Saudi Aramco and CB &；; 1. The technology of "making chemical products from hot crude oil" developed in cooperation with CLG. By developing hydrocracking technology, the conversion rate of crude oil directly producing chemical products can be increased to 70%-80%.
2. Zhejiang Petrochemical will become the most competitive integrated refinery in China.
Compared with domestic refineries, the overall planning and design of Zhejiang Petrochemical is large in scale and advanced in technology. Located in the core of East China, the location advantage is remarkable. Its major shareholders can digest PX and ethylene glycol nearby. In terms of policy support, the Zhejiang provincial government supports the construction of public facilities, gives 8 million tons of coal indicators, and supports the construction of refined oil retail networks. After the completion of 40 million tons, Zhejiang Petrochemical will become the most competitive refinery in China.
2. 1, overall design planning, high proportion of olefins and aromatics, and significant scale advantage.
The 40-million-ton oil refining and chemical integration project of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company is planned and designed as a whole. The first phase focuses on maximizing aromatic hydrocarbon production capacity and supports large-scale ethylene plants to make full use of light hydrocarbon resources. The second phase plans to maximize the output of ethylene and downstream products. Four sets of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units with 6,543,800,000 tons have strong adaptability in processing crude oil, among which the first phase is designed to process high-sulfur intermediate and high-sulfur and high-acid crude oil, which can process low-priced "opportunity crude oil" according to the market crude oil supply situation.
The total preliminary design scale of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company is 40 million tons/year oil refining+6.5438+0.04 million tons/year aromatic hydrocarbon (including 8 million tons of PX)+2.8 million tons/year ethylene. The scale of the first phase is 20 million tons/refinery+5.2 million tons/aromatics (including 4 million tons of PX)+10.4 million tons/ethylene, that is, the refined oil yield is 42%. In the first phase of heavy oil processing, the combination mode of fixed bed residue hydrogenation+heavy oil catalytic cracking+coking was selected; In the second stage, slurry bed residue hydrogenation scheme will be adopted. The downstream products of ethylene in the first phase of chemical industry are mainly EO/EG, polyethylene and styrene. The downstream of propylene is mainly acrylonitrile, polypropylene and phenol acetone, and a 600,000-ton propane dehydrogenation unit is set up to make full use of liquefied petroleum gas, a by-product of the refinery, to produce more propylene. In public works, seawater desalination, pulverized coal boiler and coal coke gasification have low cost of hydrogen production.
On the basis of summing up the experience of the first phase, Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II plans to add a set of ethylene to expand the output of aromatic hydrocarbons, and plans to adjust it as a whole to 40 million tons/year of oil refining+8.8 million tons/year of PX+4.2 million tons/year of ethylene, and the proportion of chemical products will be further improved. According to the proportion of ethylene and aromatic products in the second phase, it is expected that there is room for further optimization and increase in the first phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical.
2.2. Advantages of downstream integration
Rong Sheng Petrochemical, the major shareholder of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, and its participating probiotic PTA production capacity is13.5 million tons, which will reach 20 million tons in the long term. Rong Sheng Petrochemical also has 2.55 million tons of polyester production capacity, and it is still increasing. Tongkun, another shareholder, has a PTA production capacity of 4 million tons and will reach 9 million tons in the long term; It has 6.4 million tons of polyester production capacity, which will reach100000 tons in the long term. The two major shareholders can completely digest their own PX and MEG production capacity. As far as other chemicals such as polyolefins are concerned, the Yangtze River Delta region is the most active chemical trading and application market in China.
In addition, Rong Sheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. in Ningbo Jinzhong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. also has 2 million tons of aromatics plant (including 6.5438+0.6 million tons of PX), which adopts fuel oil and naphtha feed routes. If the upstream refining end can be released, Jinzhong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. can also be expanded into a set of integrated refining and chemical equipment.
Downstream, Zhejiang Petrochemical adopts cooperative mode to further deepen the deep processing of chemicals and enhance the added value of products.
Derong Chemical is a joint venture between Zhejiang Petrochemical and Demei Chemical (50:50), which deeply processes 500,000 tons of C5 and 480,000 tons of C9 in Zhejiang Petrochemical Project. Construction of 500,000 tons/year cracked C5 separation unit, 200,000 tons/year cracked C5 hydrogenation unit, 480,000 tons/year cracked C9 separation hydrogenation unit, 70,000 tons/year isoprene resin unit, 654.38 million tons/year DCPD resin hydrogenation unit and 60,000 tons/year C9 cold polymerization resin unit. Zhejiang Petrochemical and BP plan to build an acetic acid plant with an annual output of 6.5438+100,000 tons according to the ratio of 50:50, and BP's CATIVA XL technology will be adopted.
3. The world's leading refining and chemical integration base.
3. 1. Comparison of super-large refineries in the world
The oil refining capacity of 40 million tons can rank among the top five in the world, and 60 million tons can rank among the top two in the world. Globally, oil refining capacity is concentrated in the Gulf of Mexico in the United States, Ulsan in South Korea, Jam nagel in India, Jurong Island in Singapore and Yanbu in Saudi Arabia. Its characteristics are not only superior port conditions, but also the vast consumer market in the hinterland. Similarly, China Hangzhou Bay is also expected to form a gathering area of refining and chemical capacity of more than 654.38 billion tons, radiating the Yangtze River Delta region, including the relocation of Zhejiang Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical, Shanghai Petrochemical, Daxie Petrochemical and Gao Qiao Petrochemical.
grade
company
The location of the refinery
Refining capacity (10,000 tons/year)
1
India New Town Oil Company
Indian jam nagel
6200
2
Paraguana Oil Refining Center, Venezuela
Hudiwana, Venezuela
4830
three
Korea SK co., ltd
Ulsan, Korea
4200
four
Abu Dhabi Refinery Company, United Arab Emirates
ruby
4085
five
GS- Caltex Company
Lishui, Korea
3925
six
S oil company
Aung San, Korea
3345
seven
Saudi Aramco
Port Arthur, Texas USA
30 15
eight
Exxonmobil Corp.
Jurong Island, Yaya Chawan, Singapore
2960
nine
American Marathon Oil Company
Port Galveston, Texas, USA
2855
10
Exxonmobil Corp.
Bethun, Texas, USA
2800
1 1
American Marathon Oil Company
Garville, Louisiana, USA
2780
12
Saudi Aramco
Tanula, Chatras, PTA.
2750
13
Formosa plastics petrochemical co., ltd.
Mailiao City, Taiwan Province Province, China
2700
14
Exxon America Inc
Baton rouge, Louisiana, USA
25 10
15
Kuwait national oil company
Port Mahmoud, Kuwait
2330
16
Shell orient oil company
Singapore Wugong Island
23 10
17
China petrifaction Zhenhai refining and chemical company
Zhenhai, Ningbo, China
2300
Among the top projects in the world, Venezuela and the United Arab Emirates are planned refineries in crude oil producing areas, mainly producing fuel. Cardon and Amuay, the large refineries in Paraguana Refinery Center in Venezuela, were originally developed from refineries within 3 million tons/year of 1950, and now they are 48.3 million tons/year. Their main purpose is to convert Venezuela's heavy crude oil into fuel. However, due to the economic crisis in Venezuela, investment and raw materials are often insufficient, and the refinery load can not be guaranteed all the year round. Ruby refinery in UAE started from a factory with a capacity of 6 million tons/year, and expanded to150,000 tons/year in 2000 and 40.85 million tons/year in 2065.438+05, mainly producing fuel.
South Korea is neither a raw material producing area like the Middle East nor a consumer market like China and India, and its refineries are mainly exported. South Korea's large oil refineries were built after 1990, which is famous for its scale effect, with an average refining scale of over 20 million tons/year. Due to its proximity to the China market, the rapid economic development of China after 2008 has brought huge market dividends to Korean refineries. For example, after 2008, China imported a lot of PX from South Korea every year. However, with the completion of these 1,000-ton refineries in China, Korean refineries that have lost their advantages in consumption and advanced equipment are gradually losing their competitiveness.
3.2. Indian New Town Industry: a rapidly developing market-oriented private oil refinery.
India is the third largest oil consumer in the world, and its oil demand continues to grow. With the opening of Indian oil refining industry to private capital, private oil refineries have flourished and now account for 40% of India's oil refining capacity. India's New Town Oil Company is the largest private oil refining giant in India. Jam nagel's refinery has a crude oil processing capacity of1.4000 barrels per day, corresponding to 70 million tons per year, and it is the largest refinery in the world with a complexity coefficient of 2 1. 1. At the same time, in 20 18, the company successfully put into operation an ethane cracking unit with 654.38+500,000 tons of ethane from the United States, which increased the ethylene production capacity.
India's Xincheng Industrial Group is a super-large group spanning the energy, chemical, retail and telecommunications industries, and is the largest company in India by market value. The oil refining and chemical industry is still the most profitable industry and the cornerstone of its development, which helps it cultivate a rapidly growing telecommunications industry.
In recent years, in order to solve its high debt and maintain growth, India's reliance has also cooperated with international giants. Saudi Aramco plans to spend US$ 654.38+05 billion to acquire a 20% stake in the refining and chemical sector of India New Town, and the valuation of the refining and chemical sector of India New Town has reached US$ 75 billion. As a cooperation, India's Xincheng will buy 500,000 barrels of crude oil a day from Saudi Aramco. In terms of downstream distribution, the refined oil retail company, which is a joint venture (565,438+0: 49) between India Xincheng and BP, currently has about 65,438+0,400 gas stations in India, with a valuation of US$ 2 billion, and plans to increase the number of gas stations to 5,500 in the next five years.
3.3 Formosa Plastics Petrochemical: Zhejiang Petrochemical "Simplified Edition"
Formosa Plastics Petrochemical Company has an oil refining capacity of 27 million tons and an ethylene capacity of 3 million tons. Its main units were put into operation in 1998, 1999 and 2007 respectively. Formosa Plastics Petrochemical Company mainly consists of three sets of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units with 9 million tons, two sets of heavy oil hydrogenation units with 4 million tons, two sets of residue catalytic units with 4.2 million tons and three sets of ethylene units with 700,000 tons, 6,543,800 tons and 6,543,800 tons respectively. Its aromatic components are processed by Taihua Aromatics Factory and olefin components are also processed by other subsidiaries of Formosa Plastics Group, so Formosa Plastics Petrochemical is equivalent to 70% of Zhejiang Petrochemical's production capacity.
When the price of crude oil is relatively stable, the net profit of Formosa Plastics Petrochemical fluctuates between 500-1200 billion yuan, and the market value of the refinery fluctuates between150-200 billion yuan after the completion of construction in 2009.
In terms of valuation, the average ROE level of Formosa Plastics Petrochemical in recent years 10 is1.5%, while the average PB is 2.5 times and PE fluctuates around 20 times.
3.4. International Comparison of Zhejiang Petrochemical
From the perspective of refinery capacity planning, Zhejiang Petrochemical will far surpass Formosa Petrochemical after the completion of the second phase, and will reach the scale of the refining and chemical sector in India New Town after the completion of the third phase, with greater chemical product capacity and deeper downstream extension. From the perspective of supporting industrial chain, Zhejiang Petrochemical is also superior to Formosa Petrochemical and India New Town in supporting downstream polyester industrial chain and industrial cluster.
Judging from the PB-ROE of Asian refineries in the past 10 years, Japanese refineries have the lowest ROE level, followed by Korean refineries, and Indian and China refineries have higher ROE levels. From our understanding of various sectors of private large-scale refining and chemical industry, the ROE level of polyester and PTA sectors in the past was about 10%, while the ROE level of private large-scale refining and chemical industry projects is expected to increase to more than 20%. Large private oil refining and chemical companies should have higher lead content than other Asian refineries.