at 2: 3 pm, once the news was released, it ignited the rising momentum of Huawei's energy storage/photovoltaic concept. At the end of the session, funds quickly closed Igor, and the shares of Zhonglai once surged by 7 points. The shares of Kehua Data, jeni Energy, Shenling Environment and Nandu Power all changed slightly.
for this news, I personally think that the inverter and PCS manufacturers such as Sunshine Power, Jinlang Technology, Goodway, Deye Co., Ltd. are short-term and long-term, because Huawei's role in this project should be to provide the integration of inverters, PCS products, energy management systems (EMS) and energy storage systems, and form direct competition with other inverter manufacturers, which is short-term. However, due to the strategic significance and demonstration effect brought by the project, it reflects that domestic and foreign countries have increased their support for energy storage development. Strong economy will stimulate high demand for energy storage, and the energy storage industry will maintain sustained and rapid development, which is beneficial to the industry in the long run.
So, apart from the above-mentioned changed stocks, which stocks directly or indirectly benefited from the project? The following will be from the perspective of combing the industrial chain, looking for potential benefits of "fish escaping from the net."
1. Energy storage industry chain: battery as the core
Energy storage system is a comprehensive energy control system with battery as the core. It mainly includes battery core, EMS (Energy Management System), BMS (Battery Management System), PCS (Bidirectional Converter) and other parts, among which battery core is the core of energy storage system, accounting for about 67% of the cost. In 221, lithium batteries mainly include Ferrous lithium phosphate and ternary batteries. BMS is mainly responsible for battery monitoring, evaluation, protection and balance. Energy management system (EMS) is responsible for data acquisition, network monitoring and energy scheduling. Energy storage converter (PCS) can control the charging and discharging process of energy storage battery, and carry out AC-DC conversion.
industrial chain layout of some domestic energy storage enterprises
2. Battery: The head effect is remarkable, and the competition pattern of domestic energy storage batteries is becoming more and more concentrated in Ferrous lithium phosphate. The domestic shipment volume is 54%, and Ningde ranks first with a market share of 17% in 219-22.
from the domestic trend, with the decrease of the cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries and the increase of cycle times, Ferrous lithium phosphate has gradually become the first choice for energy storage batteries because of its high safety. The domestic shipment share of lead batteries (Nandu Power Supply) has gradually declined, and Ningde, Lishen, Haiji, Yiwei and Shangqi Guoxuan have started to rise by relying on lithium iron phosphate. In terms of overseas sales, BYD's shipments among domestic enterprises are ahead in 22, but its overseas share is only 6%, and there is still huge room for substitution in overseas markets.
in addition to the familiar enterprises mentioned above, Paineng Technology focuses on the home energy storage market, and in 219, the global home energy storage product shipments ranked third, second only to Tesla and LG Chem. Overseas enterprises benefited from the advantages of early start and sound mechanism of overseas energy storage market, and took the lead in completing the R&D layout of energy storage products. For example, Tesla leads the energy storage market in North America in the fields of household, industry and commerce and public energy with Powerwall(7-13.5KWh), Powerpack(21KWh), Megapack(MWh level) and integrated optical storage products.
At the same time, as Ferrous lithium phosphate has become the mainstream technology direction of energy storage batteries, Ferrous lithium phosphate materials enterprises such as Fulin Seiko, Longpan Technology, German Nano, xiangtan electrochemical, Fengyuan Co., Ltd., Hezong Technology and CNNC Titanium Dioxide will also directly benefit from the expansion of energy storage scale.
third, inverter: the status of sunshine power supply is stable, and the inverter manufacturers in China, with IGBT as the core component, occupy a large share in the world. According to CNESA statistics, in 22, the cumulative shipment of the top ten domestic energy storage converter suppliers was 1.27GW. At the industrial and commercial level, the participants are mainly Sunshine Power, Huawei and Shangneng Electric, while at the household level, there are mainly Jinlang Technology, Goodway and Deye.
the upstream includes IGBT components, PMIC power chips, passive devices, structural parts, etc. Among them, IGBT is the core device of photovoltaic and wind power inverter, accounting for 2%~3% of the inverter value. Photovoltaic inverter needs a large number of IGBT modules with high voltage and ultra-high voltage. It is the core link to realize carbon neutrality to convert the coarse electricity generated by photovoltaic into the fine electricity that can be smoothly connected to the Internet.
domestic companies engaged in research, development, production and sales of IGBT include Starr Semiconductor, Hongwei Technology, Silanwei, BYD Semiconductor and Times Electric. Among them, we are more optimistic about Hongwei Technology, which will directly benefit from Huawei's photovoltaic industry chain. The disadvantage is that it has increased greatly in the near future and needs to wait for adjustment before entering. Please refer to the trend of Yuan Heng.
iv. battery management system (BMS)
the main function of the battery management system (BMS) is to detect the state of the battery. The terminal demand in the field of energy storage is customers, while BMS supply is mainly led by various battery enterprises and professional enterprises in the field of power electronics.
nebula shares are the most promising in BMS field, which has great advantages in both in-depth cooperation with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited and technology accumulation in BMS field.
v. energy storage system integration: multi-party layout
the competition pattern of energy storage system has not been determined, and battery factories, inverter manufacturers and power station manufacturers have all entered the competition of energy storage system. One is photovoltaic industry enterprises, such as Sunshine, Huawei, Shangneng, Kehua, etc. At present, most of the projects in the market are photovoltaic power plants with energy storage. Photovoltaic system integrators can migrate the advanced technology of photovoltaic systems to energy storage systems and expand their business through new energy sources with energy storage. One is battery enterprises, including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, BYD, etc. Battery is the core of energy storage system and the key to cost reduction of energy storage system. Battery enterprises can effectively reduce costs and improve profit margins through forward integration. One kind is electric power enterprises, represented by Nanrui, Zhongtian and Xuji. These enterprises have accumulated rich experience in traditional power plant integration and understand the operation characteristics of power grid, which has advantages for effectively configuring energy storage systems. There are also companies that focus on system integration, such as Paineng Technology and Haibo Sitron.
in terms of competition pattern, from 218 to 22, the installed capacity of system integrators of newly put into operation electrochemical energy storage projects in China increased from 4.2% to 55.3% and from 45.2% to 75.2%, and the head effect became more and more prominent.
VI: Other segments
In addition to the above-mentioned energy storage industrial chain, the growth of installed capacity of energy storage drives the demand for components such as fuses and relays, while PCS drives the demand for low-voltage electrical appliances and inductor components.
fuse subdivision track leader: zhongrong electric. Domestic leading manufacturer of power fuses. The company's leading product is power fuse, which accounts for 96.2% of the corresponding revenue in 22. In terms of market structure, 9% of the global market share is monopolized by overseas brands, and the company's global market share is only 1.3%. At present, the company has achieved certain competitive advantages in some emerging markets, among which the domestic market share of new energy vehicle fuses is the first. On the customer side, the company has established stable supply relations with leading manufacturers at home and abroad, such as Tesla, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, Huawei and Sunshine Power Supply, and built a deep moat for the industry.
global leader of relays: Hongfa. The power relay business continued the good growth started in the second half of last year, and the order growth mainly came from the fields of large and small household appliances, smart home items, new energy, household photovoltaic inverters and so on.
film capacitor tap: Farah Electronics. China's largest manufacturer of thin film capacitors and aluminum metallized films, with an annual output of 4.5 billion thin film capacitors and 2,5 tons of metallized films, is one of the top ten manufacturers of DC thin film capacitors and metallized films in the world.
domestic leader of alloy soft magnetic powder core: platinum new material. One of the leading enterprises of alloy soft magnetic powder core in China, its main products include alloy soft magnetic powder, alloy soft magnetic powder core and other upstream raw materials of inductance components. We have successfully bound a number of downstream high-quality domestic and foreign customers in photovoltaic and new energy fields, such as Huawei, Sunshine Power, BYD, etc., and the high-quality orders are fully supported.
the dark horse of photovoltaic inverter high-frequency transformer: Igor. The company's main business is the research and development, production and sales of power supply and power supply components. The high-frequency magnetic devices developed and produced by the company are mainly used in photovoltaic inverters, mainly for Huawei, Sunshine Power and other customers. In 22, Huawei will account for about 47% of photovoltaic products, and Sunshine Power will account for about 46%, opening up new customers such as Jinlang Technology, Goodway and maiden voyage. Phase-shifting transformer is currently the only supplier of core components of Ali IDC Panama power supply.