China's new energy automobile market is doomed to be unsettled? 20 19? Although 2008 has passed, its influence has not ended with the tearing off of the last page of the calendar, and the aftermath has infiltrated into the undercurrent? 2020? And laid the foundation for a bigger wave in the future ... 2020? Where will China's new energy vehicles go? This must be the hottest topic in the industry recently. But there are too many uncertainties in the future. If you want to predict the future, you must first know where you are standing now. How did you get here?
Undeniably, 20 19? It was the most important year (none) in the development of new energy vehicles in China before. Looking back on this year's journey, there are many joys and hardships, as well as countless bitterness and hardships; 20 19? It is also an important year for this market to change from policy-led to market-led. It is a link between the preceding and the following, and its influence is self-evident. Therefore, before predicting the future, we might as well put the time back to the past year, take eight key words as our new travel guide, and see the road we have traveled together. ...
Keyword 1: Policy
What is the most obvious signal that the new energy vehicle market has changed from policy-led to market-led? 20 19? The latest subsidy policy? Month? 26? The Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Notice on Further Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles. 20 18? In 2006, the New Deal further tightened the subsidy management, and imposed stricter restrictions on technical indicators such as cruising range, energy consumption and battery energy density of subsidized vehicles, and the overall amount nearly doubled.
The provisions of the above notice have a far-reaching impact, but the provisions on the transition period have directly led to? 20 19? The specific performance of "ice and fire" in the new energy vehicle market in the first half of last year. And then what? 20 19? There is not only a new subsidy policy, but also the emission standard has changed from "National Five" to "National Six" almost simultaneously. The former mainly affects pure electric vehicles, while the latter affects the plug-in hybrid vehicle market. The sales trend chart shows a high degree of consistency with the industry ECG.
It's early next year, and it's time to discuss the subsidy policy for the new year. The accurate answer we got is: In order to stabilize market expectations and ensure the healthy development of the industry, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will remain relatively stable this year, and there will be no sharp decline. The policy remains unchanged for the time being, and the role is likely to be the stability of sales at the micro level.
Keyword 2: Fading
The word seems to come from? 20 18? Since 2000, it has been a main theme of the overall trend of the automobile market, but where are the surviving new energy vehicles? 20 19? Time is no longer an exception.
Affected by subsidies and transition period, 20 19? In 2008, the sales trend of new energy vehicles showed a "downward" V-shaped trend-the excessive snapping up before the transition period seriously overdrawn the demand in the second half of the year, leading to? 7? After rising for more than two years, new energy vehicles in a single month showed negative growth year-on-year for the first time, and in the following six months, the decline rate showed a further increasing trend.
Sales trend of new energy vehicles in recent years (Source: WeChat subscription number? Cui Dongshu)
With what? 12? Month? b？ The end-game market grew strongly at a single point, 20 19? It barely maintained the overall growth trend in 2000, but the growth rate was only? 4%, far less than the performance in previous years.
Even if? 2020? Continue to maintain the existing subsidy policy in 2008, and consumers' demand for new energy vehicles may be more difficult than before. There is no denying that the products in this market are getting better every day, but the overall understanding of consumers has not yet reached its due height. 20 19? Dodged a bullet, and then what? 2020? Will it become the first year of the overall decline in sales of new energy vehicles? The situation is not optimistic.
Keyword 3: Made in China
20 19? On the penultimate day of 2008, Tesla official blog issued a document saying that? 12? Month? 30? Sunday morning? 10? Deliver the first batch of domestic versions at? Models? 3? Model, although the first owner was an internal employee, at least it revealed that "Catfish" Tesla has officially entered the network, leaving little room for China's own brand.
In just one year, Tesla Giga Shanghai rose from the ground, and with the great help of the China government, Musk once again created a miracle. After that, it may be "one Ma Pingchuan"-the starting price within 300,000 yuan, the highest performance and intelligence level recognized by the industry, which may be good news for consumers to spend less money to enjoy more experiences; For independent new energy automobile manufacturers, the pressure must be doubled, and they can only survive stronger in the face of "catfish".
Keyword 4: Delivery
What if? 20 18? 2008 is the first year of mass production and delivery of new power cars, then? 20 19? 2008 should have been a big year for mass production and delivery, but the fact was not as smooth as expected.
On the other hand, in the past year, only Weilai was the new force model that could really achieve large-scale stable mass production delivery. ES8/ES6, Weimar? EX5, where's Tucki? G3, of which only? ES6？ Sort of. 20 19? The "new car" in 2008, the other three cars can only be regarded as consolidation? 20 18? Achievements in 2008.
Of course, in this year, the new model of the new brand has officially started the mass production delivery process, why not run at zero? S0 1？ The positioning is too small and the sales performance is not bright; Ideal? One? Until? 12? Delivery began in June, and it was affected by "loan" and "discharge system failure" and did not show its full strength; As for it? FF, Baiteng, Celestial Pole, etc. The failure to deliver the car as planned has made many people who expect it regret the New Year's Eve. ...
Will delivery be a new force? 2020? How does the theme of 2008 compare with the expectations of the outside world? 20 19? Bigger, love chi this year? U5, the sky? ME7。 Create together? 007, Wei Lai? EC7？ They will all appear in black and pink, and their colors will be further confirmed under the background of "catfish".
Keyword 5: United
The new forces are accelerating, and the traditional forces are not relaxed, except Mercedes-Benz? EQC, Audi? Electronic creation? In addition to the new works of these century-old factories, we can also find that a new "joint" wind is blowing in the China market.
20 19? Year? 3? In June, Geely and Daimler announced that they would set up a joint venture company. Now the joint venture company is determined to be in Ningbo, Zhejiang, and will be made in China later? Smart? This electric car designed by Daimler and developed by Geely will be produced in a brand-new factory in China. 2022? It was put on the market in and sold all over the world.
20 19? Year? 1 1? Month? 2? 9? Oh, my God. A BMW set? Tuan and the Great Wall? Car combination? Information beam? Automobile supplies? Is the destination Zhangjiagang City, Jiangsu Province? Type start, beam steam? What is the total investment of the automobile project? 5? 1? 1 100 million yuan, which will be funded by BMW Group and Great Wall Motor? Joint research on automobiles? New development and production? Energy steam? Cars. What is the annual standard capacity of the new factory? Da? 160,000? Taiwan Province, will it be produced? Rice? Ni? Pure electric? Newly produced cars and Great Wall Motor? Products.
What power will the combination of independent head enterprises and world-renowned luxury brands give birth to? How will it affect the new energy pattern in the next few years? These are very worth looking forward to!
Keyword 6: Spontaneous combustion
Why did Li Bin become "20 19"? The worst person ",two accidents suspected of" spontaneous combustion "have become an important part of this title, but whether it is" fire "or" spontaneous combustion ",it is not just Weilai's patent. ...
20 19? Year? 3? Month? 26? Japan and? 4? Month? 2 1? Jesus, Tesla? Models? s？ Two "spontaneous combustion" incidents occurred successively in Guangzhou and Shanghai; Then Wei came and picked up the stick. 4? Month? 22? Wei Lai from Xi 'an? ES8？ The vehicle caught fire when it was being repaired in the official authorized service center of Weilai, 5? Month? 17? On the evening of March, a Weilai in Shanghai? ES8？ An accident of "smoking" in an underground parking lot ...
Four consecutive "spontaneous combustion" incidents did not push the two companies to the forefront, but also triggered a big discussion on the safety of electric vehicles in the whole society.
Keyword 7: Memories
"Spontaneous combustion" destroyed the delivery schedule planned by Wei Laiyuan. In the face of external doubts, Li Bin took the attitude that a responsible entrepreneur should have-decided to recall the defective ones? ES8？ Model, which also makes it worse, and further sits on the "worst person."
But in? 20 19? Nianweilai is not a new energy automobile manufacturer "recalled" by itself;
1? Month? 15? In fact, Chrysler China officially issued an announcement in? 20 18? Year? 8? Is this month over? 9? What is the monthly output of Dajielong? MPV？ The plug-in version of the engine is out of sync, which may lead to power loss or fire, and 742 vehicles were recalled;
1? Month? 18? On the 24th, Tesla officially announced the recall, which models were involved? Models? S, the reason for the recall is the product problem from the parts supplier, model? s？ The airbag was purchased from Takada Company, but this product lacks an ammonium nitrate gas generator with desiccant, and once it ruptures, it will lead to serious traffic accidents.
1? Month? 18? God, Chery's pure electric car Tiggo? 3xe？ Because the connecting bolt between the rear suspension bracket of the differential and the subframe may be loose, the power will be disconnected during driving, which will lead to dangerous accidents, right? 20 17? Year? 12? Is this month over? 20 18? Year? 10? During the production of related models, * * * involved? 8580? The car was recalled.
2? Month? 15? From that day on, Audi was right? 20 14? Year? 7? Is this month over? 9? Is the monthly output partially imported from Audi? A6？ Half-breed? The main reason for taking recall measures is that the auxiliary heating plug of air conditioner is loose and not completely fastened, and the consequence may be burning and then causing fire. What are the vehicles involved this time? 13? Cars.
"Recall" does not mean that new energy vehicles must have defects, but it is precisely the performance of car companies, even if they are mature as fuel vehicles. 20 19? In 2006, we also failed to get rid of the recall events such as "engine oil door" and "flameout door".
Keyword 8: Rights Protection
20 19? Xi' an Mercedes-Benz female car owner has sat? 4S？ The video of "defending rights" on the car cover of the shop is widely circulated and has become an important talk in the streets. In the field of new energy vehicles, two important "rights protection" incidents have also touched the nerves of practitioners in this industry.
3? Month? 1? On the same day, all Tesla models ushered in official price cuts, with the largest drop reaching? 34? This is the biggest price reduction since Tesla series products entered China. As soon as the official announcement came out, many car owners who had just picked up their cars or paid for them went into a rage in an instant, and then a massive "rights protection movement" began.
7? Month? 10? No, did Tucki announce it? 2020? Money? G3？ Price, launch? 40 1km？ And then what? 520km？ What is the national unified price range after subsidies for the two endurance versions? 14.38- 18.08? Ten thousand yuan and? 15.98- 19.68? Ten thousand yuan. Although the price of the new car is several thousand yuan higher than that of the old one, the old car owners are dissatisfied with the fact that "the new car has only been raised for a few months" and "the endurance has been improved obviously", so the "rights protection" movement has arisen through various social channels, and even car owners have gathered at Xpeng Motors headquarters to "protect rights". Tucki's plan of "60% discount for buying or getting points within three years" gradually solved the dispute.
Compared with the previous era, these two "rights protection" movements in the field of new energy are "atypical". The former is triggered by pricing strategy, and the latter comes from rapid iteration. In the era of intelligent electric vehicles with more intense competition and faster technology iteration, how to balance the interests of new and old consumers is a new topic that many car companies must face in the future.
Edit the summary? /
Can you find 20 19? In the middle of the year, the eight key words of the new energy vehicle market-policy, decline, domestic production, delivery, alliance, spontaneous combustion, recall and rights protection-all encouraged the existence and were mutually causal, which jointly created this complex overall situation and had a lasting impact. 2020? Still can't completely get rid of all the words in it. ...
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.